2025 Oscar Predictions: The Slap Heard Round the World

It’s time for me to take a victory lap and explain how I knew and could predict the outcome of this year’s election. Even if I didn’t know for sure that Trump would win, I did know that it was over for the Democrats. They might have scrabbled through to a victory one last time but the entire empire was coming down. This was easy for me to see because of how I have been conditioned to think from running this website. I am in the business of predicting what a consensus will do. The trick to predicting a consensus is knowing the consensus.

How did I know I was ahead of the curve? Because it happened once before. Back in 2001, I could sense a change happening. We were all migrating online, creating one big conversation about Hollywood that wasn’t possible before the internet. The trades, sometimes newspapers, covered the business but Hollywood was about to be exposed just as it is now.

The problem back then? It was all male and all white. I knew it would not be long that people began to notice. That’s partly why I was pushing so hard for Halle Berry and Denzel Washington to win that year (both did). Ten years later, I was pushing for Viola Davis to beat Meryl Streep in 2011. By then, I was what people might call now a “woke blogger.” And even that was ahead of the curve of the #oscarssowhite and the “Great Awokening” of 2020.

My readers were furious with me for prioritizing race. It was so bad that the people who ran my forums (yes we had forums back in 2011) started badmouthing me in a way I didn’t like, especially since I was paying for the forums. So I decided it was time for us to go our separate ways. That is how the website AwardsWatch was born, and it is why I have linked to Erik Anderson so often. I still feel like it is my child – even if we hated each other at the time.

I have many Oscar “babies,” the latest one is TheContending.com with all of our former staffers.

At any rate, I lost nearly all of my readers back then for what we would now “going woke.” All of that changed in 2017 when the film Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, was deemed “racist.” The madness was only just beginning, but I could already see how this would play out back then. I knew I was ahead of the curve and would be in for some trouble ahead.

I guess I didn’t think it would be quite as bad as it turned out to be. I didn’t think I would be punished by movie studios, publicists, Julie Huntzinger at the Telluride Film Festival. I’d been nothing but supportive and a strong advocate for all of them for years, earning them nominations and bringing in wins. But one joke on Twitter, an article about me by Rebecca Keegan in the Penske-owned Hollywood Reporter wherein a “high profile Academy member” didn’t think my “white power” joke was funny (it was), and that was all it took.

Now, I already knew as it was happening that they were going too far, and eventually, they would realize it. I felt like I’d traveled back to Salem in 1692, but I could not warn people to stop hanging witches. I have tried my best to stand up for the cancellation and the bullying. I have defended movies, filmmakers and celebrities. I have proven myself to be a decent person, but the level of derangement around Trump was incurable. The media sold a version of him, and most people in Hollywood believed it and probably still do.

But if that is their stance now, when Trump has won the popular vote by 4 million, the Electoral College, the Senate and maybe the House, means you, Hollywood, are sidelining the majority. How do you think that will work out for you? Is this enough? Is this a hard enough slap in the face?

How did I really know what was happening? I could feel it. I’ve been online for 30 years. I could see how Trump drove views, ratings and clicks. A lot of that was hatred, at least in the beginning. But it changed. I noticed when I wrote about Trump – just humanizing him — traffic on my other site skyrocketed. Views on YouTube skyrockted on Trump videos. That told me there was a silent majority building. It just got bigger over time, especially as our government hunted down Trump like an animal.

At the same time, I could see interest and “heat” in what Hollywood was turning out was slipping. There was no interest anywhere. If anything, bringing up the Oscars would be greeted with groans. I could not find one person out there in the world who had any interest whatsoever in the Oscars or Hollywood. The movies bombed. Now you have people like Ryan Gosling saying he’s moving to the UK. America Ferrera too.

I don’t know what is driving them but I would say this, if you don’t love this country you can’t make movies for this country. You can’t tell jokes for this country. You can’t write books for this country. Sure, you can exist in the rarified air of the sophisticated elite if you want. But why would anyone want that? I hope that is not the future for Hollywood and the Oscars.

It was easier for me to see because I was no longer on the “inside” but was on the “outside” and thus, I could see reality. AND, I have read and love 1984 and everything that has happened is in that book: They built an “inside,” which was a utopia — a ruling minority of elites. That bothered Orwell because he was Communist but not a Stalinist. So he wrote the greatest book of all time, in my opinion, but I would not have believed that if we hadn’t just lived through it.

The celebrities who came out for Kamala Harris did more harm than good because the last thing people who are struggling with food and gas prices need is a bunch of rich celebrities telling them how to vote.  Disgust for Hollywood is now part of disgust with the Democrats and the ruling class. AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR YEARS NOW. 

Here is Critical Drinker slapping Hollywood around:

he Left has ceded everything to the Right. They are no longer the “cool” side. They aren’t the funny side. They aren’t the counterculture side or the subversive side. It’s boring.

It is my hope that Hollywood takes my advice to end the madness. Invite people like Dennis Quaid, Kevin Spacey, Armie Hammer all back in. Make movies people want to see, not what you want them to want to see. Bring back masculine men and hot women. Bring back action movies. Bring back movie stars. And for the love of God, movie stars, SHUT UP! Why would anyone want to watch George Clooney in a movie now?

The adaptation is to survive offensive speech. That’s it. That’s the whole thing.  We’d taken speech policing too far. If one joke on Twitter can take down my whole career then we’re in a big muddy. The only question is whether they will pull out of it or not.

They’re not going to do it in the short run. They all still believe they are the “good” people and those who voted for Trump are the “bad” people. This “woke” thing isn’t just a belief system. It has become a religion.  It has given people like Jamie Lee Curtis, Jimmy Kimmel, George Clooney and the billionaires who run Hollywood ABSOLUTION of their sins of wealth and privilege. Giving it up means they have to go back to being ordinary. They can’t lose both their bankability and their religion.

I do not think that Hollywood can change. I think that, as I’ve said over and over, a whole new system has to be built around them, one that isn’t elite and judgemental or rooted in identity politics. Just tell good stories that aren’t about you. No one cares. They really don’t.

Ricky Gervais. That’s the answer.

Onward to predictions, for whatever they’re worth.

I think that Will Mavity is correct:

As I’ve been saying (I’m really getting tired of saying I told you so) there should only be 5 right now since Hollywood is having a moment. There should not be ten. But if there is ten, Inside Out 2 should be in the conversation to be among the ten. It’s absurd to see it any other way. Think about the business of Hollywood.

It beat Dune Part Two. It beat Deadpool & Wolverine.

I still haven’t seen it because the way I feel about Hollywood movies now is how most people feel: do I have to watch it? Do I really have to? Are you going to force me? It shouldn’t be that way. Top Gun Maverick was a joy of a movie. It was easy on the audience. It didn’t ask anything of us except to sit back and enjoy one last right. It wasn’t a masterpiece like Oppenheimer. It wasn’t edgy like Barbie but it was just a good fucking movie. Can we have more movies like that please? What’s it gonna take, Hollywood? What’s it gonna take?

Here are my predictions as I attempt to save Hollywood from itself and ram Inside Out 2 through.

Best Picture

Best Picture
Conclave
Anora
Emilia Perez
Dune Part Two
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Inside Out 2

Alts: Gladiator II; Wicked; Juror #2, A Complete Unknown, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Blitz, The Piano Lesson

Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Jaques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Alt. Clint Eastwood, Juror #2; James Mangold, A Complete Unknown; Jason Reitman, Saturday Night; RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys; Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain; Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Best Actor
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Daniel Craig, Queer
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Alts: Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain; Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux; John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress
Mikey Madison, Anora
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
Nicole Kidman, Baby Girl
Demi Moore, The Substance
Alts: Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun; Amy Adams, Nightbitch; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie a Deux; Julianne Moore, the Room Next Door

Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Adam Pearson, A Different Man
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Alts: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Yura Borisov, Anora; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Paul Raci, Sing Sing; Pedro Pascal, Gladiator II

Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Alts: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys; Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night; Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door; Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Original Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
Emilia Pérez
The Substance
Alt. Saturday Night; The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Nickel Boys
The Piano Lesson
Gladiator II
Inside Out 2

Editing
Conclave
Anora
Gladiator II
Saturday Night
Dune Part Two

Cinematography
Dune 2
The Brutalist
Conclave
Gladiator II
The Substance

Production Design
Dune 2
The Brutalist
The Substance
Gladiator II
Wicked

Costumes
Wicked
Dune 2
The Substance
Maria
Gladiator II

Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Queer
Emilia Perez
Dune 2