2025 Oscars: Is Best Actress Now Gascon’s to Lose?

I have heard people say, not just to me privately, but openly on social media that now, because of the election, the transgender and titular star of Emilia Perez, Karla Sofia Gascon, will win Best Actress. The theory goes something like this: because American voters ran from the Left and their policies on specifically transgender ideology (prisons, immigrants, sports, kids), that means that America is now transphobic, and thus, Hollywood will want to wrap a protective arm around transgender people and award Gascon the prize, make history and flip the bird to the GOP.

That’s the theory, anyway.

Is that what they’ll do? No. The reason is that Mikey Madison gives the performance of the year in Anora. And if it isn’t her, there’s Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths, Nicole Kidman in Babygirl, and Angelina Jolie in Maria, who give lead performances vs. Gascon’s, which, despite the title, is more of a supporting role.

However, we’ve seen mixed results when two actresses compete, and the reason given to one over the other is “making history.” They went for Emma Stone over Lily Gladstone last year. They went for Michelle Yeoh over Cate Blanchett the year before.  Madison has the edge because, as with Emma Stone, when you have a voting body mostly comprised of heterosexual white men whose thrills, let’s face it, are few and far between – well, let’s just say that sex wins.

Cinematic Viagra vs. angst and misery – probably not a hard call. Then again, many people love Emilia Perez, at least as far as I can tell. I was glancing at the audience reviews on RT, and I saw the strangest comments. Someone accused it of being “transphobic,” can someone explain to me why that would be? They bent over backward to make what can be seen as a “Trans Opera” – how is that bad?

I think we have it about right. In general, when it comes to Best Actress, you need three elements:

1. Likability of performance (character)
2. Likability of star
3. Likability of movie

Mikey Madison has all three but needs to be out there more so people can get to know her and like her. Gascon has this problem and has yet to do many interviews. That’s understandable, considering she’s in a different situation and would have to start talking about transgender issues and I don’t know if she wants to do that in amid an Oscar campaign.

Nicole Kidman will have #2 in spades, as few actresses are now more beloved. She, too, has a hot-fire performance heavy on sexuality, which should help her with these voters. Can she win her second? She would have to be better than Madison, and I don’t think anyone is right now.

Marianne Jean-Baptiste will have two out of three. The character she plays is deliberately not likable. She thaws out as the movie progresses. She is a beloved star, and Mike Leigh is obviously a beloved director.

And then there is Pedro Almodovar’s The Room Next Door with two strong female leads and a topical theme about climate change:

These two actresses are beloved but there isn’t much buzz generated for them, at least not now. But who knows? We’re almost at the Critics Awards phase, which will change the game.

The Best Actress race begins with the Golden Globes, even though the critics will also be announcing their winners coming in early December. It’s really the Golden Globes that start the race. Here is how last year’s chart looked:

They are broken up by Drama and Musical/Comedy. This will be the test between Madison and Gascon as they are both going into the Musical/Comedy category. Over on the Drama side, we’ll have the potential for Angelina Jolie winning there (without having to compete against Madison), which gives her a boost heading into the SAG awards, the BAFTAs and the Oscars.

Demi Moore will also be submitted in the Musical/Comedy category, which gives her a chance to build buzz for her work in The Substance.

What we have now for the Golden Globes might look like this:

Musical/Comedy
Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Garcia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Demi Moore, The Substance
Zendaya, Challengers
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Drama
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

That’s quite a lineup for the Golden Globes and it will definitely help boost their ratings if it goes that way.

We’ll be posting our updated Gate Crashers today but our Best Actress lineup is looking like this:

In the Best Actress race, in my view, people vote with their hearts. If they feel motivated enough by the election to vote with their hearts politically Gascon could win. Otherwise, it’s Madison’s to lose.