NextGen Oscarwatcher: Best Picture Temperature Check Part Two of Two – What is not known

After mentioning the core seven Best Picture “locks” of the year, at least in this current moment, those being:

– Anora
– The Brutalist
– Emilia Perez
– Sing Sing
– A Real Pain
– Dune Part II
– Conclave

It seemed only natural for this next article to be focused on the uncertainties of the best picture race, or as the article states, what is ultimately “not known” and what can still be an unknown variable for the next few months.

This includes films from established directors, projects from up-and-coming filmmakers, genre titles with passion, and awards-bait titles that seem to have a fair amount of buzz. Though the year undoubtedly feels “less stacked” than others, there are still quite a few movable variables that will be hard to call confidently.

To round out the top ten I currently have, the eighth, ninth, and tenth spots I have in my respective Best Picture lineup as of now are RaMell Ross’s Nickel Boys, Steve McQueen’s Blitz, and, probably the biggest swing of the year at least on my end, Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance (which, along with A Real Pain, I still haven’t seen but I will get around to it).

What one has here are three unique projects that each hone in on something that feels different (or unique) about every other film that is in contention for a best picture nomination.

What RaMell Ross created in Nickel Boys with cinematographer Jomo Fray is an immersive cinematic achievement that puts things in perspective and exhibits a portrayal of racism and life in a turbulent time period, unlike any other project in recent memory. It’s for sure not going to be a film for everyone (and has led to some divisive responses from critics). Still, the people who love it really love it, plus its socially relevant topics make it an easy project to root for, on top of Best Picture, nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Director, Best Cinematography, and even a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor are on the table.

In contrast to Ross’s vision found in Nickel Boys, what Steve McQueen aims for in Blitz is full of conventional filmmaking techniques. But that is not a net negative; rather, its traditional presentation positively impacts the project overall.

Focusing on the blitz bombing in the 20th century, McQueen focuses on the technical aspects specifically, crafting a profoundly immersive experience that might come off as emotionally hollow to some. Still, the connection made between the protagonist and his mother, portrayed by Saoirse Ronan, will win over a ton of individuals, in addition to the British voting block. On top of Best Picture nominations, a nomination for Best Supporting Actress, Best Cinematography, Best Sound, and even potentially Best Original Screenplay (among a few others, including Best Original Song) make it formidable. It’s very much a “wait and see” situation.
The last project I hope to see VERY soon is Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance. One of the few female-directed projects in this year’s race, Fargeat’s project is one that has much passion from the film community, critics, and even audiences despite its “body horror” genre that has tended to scare away certain viewers.

It’s clearly a prediction that could very likely be wrong and not pan out, akin to the hype that Rajamouli’s RRR received in 2022, but considering the more muted list of films releasing this year, it can very easily find a place in Best Picture, but Original Screenplay, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Actress, and even categories like Directing and/or Editing on its best day.

Other projects that are getting a large amount of hype that can break the top ten include Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II, which, though not uniformly beloved, is hailed as a thrilling experience, and with a performance like Denzel Washington’s sticking out as much as it allegedly is, there is room for it to make a presence in those two above the line categories, plus some technical crafts.

However, probably the biggest revelation in the awards race recently was that of the surprisingly glowing early word on Jon M. Chu’s Wicked, which is being hailed not only as an effective crowd-pleaser but a solid filmmaking achievement that adapts the popular musical of the same name in noteworthy fashion, Signaling out Ariana Grande’s performance in particular, and highlighting the below the line crafts such as its costumes and production design, Chu’s film will more likely than not light the box office up, and be formidable in the Best Picture Race, even if it misses the nom in the end.

Only projects that are on the cusp of getting nominated, but it is too early to say if they’ll pan out or not include Tim Fehlbaum’s September 5, which, though highly buzzed in the awards pundit-sphere, is not being signaled out as the fall festival breakout title some has envisioned. Nevertheless, a potential screenplay nom and a few acting contenders can push it a long way.

The big “unknown” of the year is that of James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown, which is very likely going to be an acting showcase for Timothee Chalamet regardless but has other potential nominations, including Best Picture if it ends up appealing to certain demographics. Then there is Robert Eggers’s Nosferatu, which in many ways is the anti-Complete Unknown, as in, being nothing like traditional Oscar bait, but might be underestimated. We’ll know about those two soon.

The PGA Ten:
When one thinks about what the Producers Guild will ultimately go for, it’s important to remember that, at least before last year, populism was a major factor here. Four sequels getting nominated in the ten in the 2022-2023 reason was a big deal. Nevertheless, 2023 nominating two international features, and going ten for ten might signify group mentality, or maybe it was just an outlier.
What is safe for PGA:
1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Dune: Part II
4. Conclave
5. Sing Sing
6. Emilia Perez
7. A Real Pain

If I had to guess the last three
8. Blitz
9. Nickel Boys
10. Wicked
Alt: The Substance

The Oscar Ten:
A big piece of advice one can utilize to predict the BP 10 is to “think international.” Whatever project that feels viable for the ten and has the passion/importance to pull it off will more likely than not make it in. A project like Wicked could very easily make the Producers Guild top ten but miss the Oscar lineup due to passion for a smaller, more unique project. Nickel Boys felt like something that could be missed, but the love for the film and its overall importance is what single-handedly keeps it as a strong player overall.

The Oscar Ten: What is Known
1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Emilia Perez
4. Dune Part II
5. Sing Sing
6. Conclave
7. A Real Pain

If I had to guess the last three slots
8. Nickel Boys
9. Blitz
10. The Substance

It’s hard to really think about the Oscar Race considering the political climate, but hopefully the dust will clear, and the season will start to solidify more.

Till next week.

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