NextGen OscarWatcher: “What Happens Now” Post Election Oscar Analysis

It’s always been hard to talk about the Oscars, or anything for that matter, without addressing the biggest topic that consistently makes its presence known every day of our lives, at least in recent years. That is the political roller coaster that every American goes through not just every four years, but basically every day. Politics influencing awards (or the arts in general) is one of the industry’s worst-kept secrets, and its biases towards the left side of the spectrum is one that everyone is aware of and has become a breaking point for so many.

It’s always been present, but ever since the election of 2016, the combination of politics and everything else became far more apparent and was even more present in the entertainment industry. As polarization took hold, the industry didn’t attempt to understand those outside the bubble, choosing to cave into their most passionate defenders who desired to reflect the change in what ultimately prevailed. This was most evident in the projects of Moonlight and The Shape of Water winning in the end, their challengers being projects that were either tainted or slightly impacted with “controversy.”

The ratings slipped after these two years, and the academy, rather than address the biggest concern, considered making substantial changes to the ceremony that people disagreed with vehemently. 2018 was an incredibly heated awards race, with divisive projects such as Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody taking so much of the attention and generating lots of buzz.

Nevertheless, it did not matter, and Farrelly’s project prevailed on Oscar night, a clear statement made by academy members that ignored the attempts to taint the project altogether. This was followed by perhaps the most universally adored project in the form of Parasite, which, after several years of political division and soul-searching for the academy, is considered by many to be one of their most cherished wins, both due to its quality and significance of being an international project. Essentially, “everyone won” for a short amount of time.

However, 2020 changed the world through a worldwide pandemic, economic turmoil, social unrest, and a divisive political climate; it resulted in a year where everyone put everything on hold. Biden’s narrow win was a reflection of a group of individuals who wanted to get things back to the way they were, people who were exhausted of the discourse. Nevertheless, the cracks of the awards race (and its separation from the general public) was more crystal clear than ever before in the two years that followed, dubbed as “The Great Awokening” with Nomadland and Coda (two good films I may add) not really breaking into the public sentiment despite the good nature of these wins, and controversies surrounding the ceremonies being more of a talking point, while Hollywood itself attempt to revitalize following a once in a century pandemic.

However, the next two years signified the academy was finally starting to find its footing, with 2022’s BP race consisting of a number of highly successful projects for the industry, though the passionate Everything Everywhere All at Once prevailed, a film that had many detractors in the Academy, was able to go the distance due to connection it had with the international academy. This was followed by 2023, where, in spite of an industry strike, the industry finally got back to where it was pre-COVID. Barbenheimer defined the year, but it was really Oppenheimer that went all the way, a project that honored epic projects of the past that each and every person could connect with, something all films should strive for.

Now we arrive in 2024. It’s been especially difficult to talk about the year with the current political climate, on top of industry strikes dampening the number of projects that people thought were releasing, and as I said in a previous post, the winner would shed some clarity on not only the Oscar race itself but how the country feels. As a whole, Trump winning signifies distaste for the current political climate(or incumbency in general), and a desire for something else. On top of everything that has happened, the majority (or plurality) of voters in the popular vote cast their ballot for his presidency, a rejection of the liberal norms that are present in the industry. The main question then becomes, how will people respond? How will the industry adapt? Will they change or cave into their passionate fans? Essentially, what happens now?

Only time will tell.

Rather than listing the nominees for each category, I will select my predicted winner, and the runner up (in my view). The rest of my predictions for this week can be found at https://www.awardsdaily.com/thegatecrashers/scott-kernen/ and next week I will start to dive into categories that aren’t above the line)

Best Picture: Anora (Alt: The Brutalist)

Best Director: Sean Baker, Anora (Alt: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist)

Best Actor: Adrien Brody The Brutalist (Alt: Colman Domingo, Sing Sing)

Best Actress: Mikey Madison, Anora (Alt: Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez)

Best Supporting Actor: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (Alt: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain)

Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez (Alt: Felicity Jones, The Brutalist)

Best Original Screenplay: Anora (Alt: The Brutalist)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave (Alt: Sing Sing)

Best Cinematography: The Brutalist (Alt: Dune Part II)

Best Film Editing: Dune Part II (Alt: Anora)

Best Costume Design: Wicked (Alt: Dune Part II)

Best Production Design: Wicked (Alt: Dune Part II)