I would guess that it will be down to Arrival vs. Jungle Book. But I bet Arrival wins.
“Arrival”
“The BFG”
“Captain America: Civil War”
“Deepwater Horizon”
“Doctor Strange”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“The Jungle Book”
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Passengers”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
The Academy’s Visual Effects Branch Executive Committee determined the shortlist. All members of the Visual Effects Branch will now be invited to view 10-minute excerpts from each of the shortlisted films on Saturday, January 7, 2017. Following the screenings, the members will vote to nominate five films for final Oscar® consideration.