Best Director – the DGA-Oscar Disconnect

There are two important things to remember about the Best Director race.

Since the implementation of the preferential ballot (2009), splitting Picture and Director awards has become more common. Between 2009 and 2015, Best Director and Picture split three times in seven years. The previous decade, two times in seven years. So it hasn’t been that dramatic of a shift, but it’s something to take into consideration. We’re coming off of a split year. Only twice in Oscars history have their been Picture/Director splits in back-to-back years, the most recent occurring in 2012 and 2013
It’s rare for there to be a 5/5 match between DGA and Oscar’s Best Director nominees. Most recently, it happened in 1998, 2005, and in 2009. In 2011, the Academy shifted its date around so that its ballots closed either before the DGA announced or a day after. Since then, there has been less of a overlap.

We have to probably assume there won’t be a 5/5 match for the simple reason that there isn’t a solid consensus of frontrunners. Garth Davis’ DGA nomination was viewed as somewhat of a surprise. While Lion was clearly one of the crowdpleasers, most of us missed considering its director strength. Davis wasn’t really showing up much anywhere. Since the DGA predicts Best Picture more so than it does Best Director, we can now be sure that Lion is a popular film to reckon with.

But the DGA announcement came the day before Oscar ballots were to be turned in. The voting will have concluded by then, so the buzz from Davis’ surprise DGA nod would not have had enough time to possibly influence the Academy’s directors branch. If the DGA had announced one week before, there is no doubt that Lion would do better overall. On the other hand, if Lion is as popular behind the scenes with the Academy, it could also show up there.

Only twice in the current preferential ballot era has a DGA nominee not been nominated for Best Picture: Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher and David Fincher for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. That means there is a very good chance that all of the names that pop up on either list will be a Best Picture nominee.

As far as we can tell, there are three locked:

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

The next in line also seems most likely:

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

But it’s also possible Arrival will not have resonated with the mostly male Academy’s director branch. If it has a weakness it’s that middle-aged men “don’t connect” with it. I’ll stick with Villeneuve because it’s my favorite film of the year but also because Villeneuve has built up cred with Sicario last year and with his other admired films. And he has DGA + BAFTA. That gives him a slight edge I would think, but I will not be surprised if he doesn’t show up (I will be disappointed). Since the God of Oscars hates me, we all know it’s a possibility. But let’s assume they go 4/5 to match, which happens more often than not.

They connected with Lenny Abrahamson’s Room and Benh Zeitlan’s Beasts of the Southern Wild, and both of those nominations tell me that Lion could be big with them. It’s possible that Garth Davis bumps Villeneuve and another name shows up in his place.

But aside from those two, who might be the other possible contenders for that fifth Best Director slot? Let’s work from the potential Best Picture contenders and the PGA, which usually matches most of the Best Picture contenders give or take:

~~La La Land~~
~~Manchester by the Sea~~
~~Moonlight~~
~~Arrival~~
Hidden Figures – Ted Melfi
Hell or High Water – David MacKenzie
Hacksaw Ridge – Mel Gibson
Fences – Denzel Washington
Lion – Garth Davis

Then we get the BAFTA influence. Which five are nominated for BAFTA?

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Ken Loach, I Daniel Blake
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Has the BAFTA ever pushed through a Best Director that wasn’t really on the radar? It’s surly happened before but it is not common. The Oscar race moves so fast there isn’t a lot of time to think outside the box. Lenny Abrahamson for Room last year was a surprise, especially since he supplanted Ridley Scott for The Martian. Also Todd Haynes got in for BAFTA and not for Oscar. There is a disconnect. Though I love Scott Feinberg’s one-in-a million prediction on Ken Loach, which I think could happen, I think it’s better to play it safe and go for the names that are more likely to get a matching Best Picture nomination, since that tends to be a common thing.

So, who takes the fifth spot? Honestly it could be any of these:

Hidden Figures – Ted Melfi (WGA, SAG, PGA)
Hell or High Water – David MacKenzie (WGA, ACE, PGA)
Hacksaw Ridge – Mel Gibson (ACE, PGA)
Fences – Denzel Washington (SAG, WGA, PGA)
Lion – Garth Davis (PGA)

There is one last possibility and it’s one that should not be taken lightly. That’s beloved Martin Scorsese. Even if Silence gets nothing else, there seems to be a really good chance he will get that fifth slot for a film that many people don’t like (or perhaps chose not to watch). But many who did embark on the difficult journey seem very much to respect it. So Silence might show up in Director and in Picture with the help of those devotees. Keep in mind Scorsese earned a lone director nomination for The Last Temptation of Christ, and that was arguably more even divisive than Silence.

Here are some names that might show up as a wild card:

Ezra Edelman could become the first director nominated for a Documentary feature, O.J.: Made in America (not likely but you never know)
Clint Eastwood could still show up for Sully.
Jeff Nichols could show up for Loving.
Jim Jarmusch could show up for Paterson.

Right now, my gut tells me it’s down to Garth Davis vs. Martin Scorsese vs. David MacKenzie vs. Denzel Washington. I’ll let you know what I’ve decided once I lay down my final Oscar predictions.

DGA | Oscar

Won DGA | Won Oscar
*film won Best Picture at the Oscars

2016

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchster by the Sea

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Garth Davis, Lion

2015

The Revenant, Alejandro G. Iñárritu* The Revenant, Alejandro G. Iñárritu

The Big Short, Adam McKay* The Big Short, Adam McKay

Mad Max: Fury Road, George Miller* Mad Max: Fury Road, George Miller

The Martian, Ridley Scott* Lenny Abrahamson, Room*

Spotlight, Tom McCarthy* Spotlight, Tom McCarthy

2014

Richard Linklater, Boyhood* Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman+ Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman

Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel* Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel

Morten Tyldum, Imitation Game* Morten Tyldum, Imitation Game

Clint Eastwood, American Sniper* Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

2013

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity* Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave+ Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips* Alexander Payne, Nebraska*

David O. Russell, American Hustle* David O. Russell, American Hustle

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street* Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

2012

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln* Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Ang Lee, Life of Pi* Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Ben Affleck, Argo+ David O. Russell, Silver Linings*

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty* Michael Haneke Amour*

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables* Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild*

2011

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist+

Martin Scorsese, Hugo Martin Scorsese, Hugo*

Alexander Payne, The Descendants Alexander Payne, The Descendants*

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris*

David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Terrence Malick, Tree of Life*

2010

Tom Hooper The King’s Speech Tom Hooper the King’s Speech+

David Fincher, Social Network David Fincher, Social Network*

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan*

David O’Russell, The Fighter David O’Russell, The Fighter*

Christopher Nolan, Inception* The Coens, True Grit*

2009

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker Bigelow, Hurt Locker+

Lee Daniels, Precious Lee Daniels, Precious*

Jason Reitman, Up in the Air Jason Reitman, Up in the Air*

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds*

Jim Cameron, Avatar Jim Cameron, Avatar*

2008

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Danny Boyle, Slumdog+

Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon*

Gus Van Sant, Milk Gus Van Sant, Milk*

David Fincher, Benjamin Button David Fincher, Benjamin Button*

Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight Stephen Daldry, The Reader*

2007

Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country

Sean Penn, Into the Wild Jason Reitman, Juno

Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

2006

Stephen Frears, The Queen Stephen Frears, The Queen

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel

Bill Condon, Dreamgirls Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima

Faris and Dayton, Little Miss Sunshine Paul Greengrass, United 93

Martin Scorsese, The Departed Martin Scorsese, The Departed

2005

Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain

George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck

Paul Haggis, Crash Paul Haggis, Crash*

Bennett Miller, Capote Bennett Miller, Capote

Steven Spielberg, Munich Steven Spielberg, Munich

2004

Alexander Payne for Sideways Alexander Payne for Sideways

Martin Scorsese for The Aviator Martin Scorsese for The Aviator

Taylor Hackford for Ray Taylor Hackford for Ray

Marc Forster for Finding Neverland Mike Leigh for Vera Drake

Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby

2003

Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation

Clint Eastwood, Mystic River Clint Eastwood, Mystic River

Peter Jackson, ROTK Peter Jackson, ROTK*

Peter Weir, Master and Commander Peter Weir, Master and Commander

Gary Ross, Seabiscuit Fernando Merielles, City of God

2002

Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York Martin Scorsese

Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings Pedro Almodovar

Roman Polanski, The Pianist Roman Polanski

Rob Marshall, Chicago Rob Marshall*

Steven Daldry, The Hours Steven Daldry

2001

Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind*

Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings Peter Jackson, LOTR

Christopher Nolan, Memento Robert Altman, Gosford Park

Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down

Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge David Lynch, Mulholland Drive

2000

Cameron Crowe, Almost Famous Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot

Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

Ridley Scott, Gladiator Ridley Scott, Gladiator *

Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich

Steven Soderbergh, Traffic Steven Soderbergh, Traffic

1999

Frank Darabont, The Green Mile Lasse Hallstrom, Cider House Rules

Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich

Michael Mann, The Insider Michael Mann, The Insider

Sam Mendes, American Beauty Sam Mendes, American Beauty*

M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense

1998

Peter Weir, Truman Show Peter Weir, Truman Show

Terrence Malick, Thin Red Line Terrence Malick, Thin Red Line

John Madden, Shakes in Love John Madden, Shakes in Love*

Steven Spielberg, SPR Steven Spielberg, SPR

Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful

1997

James L. Brooks As Good As It Gets Peter Cattaneo, The Full Monty

Steven Spielberg Amistad Atom Egoyan, The Sweet Hereafter

Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting

James Cameron, Titanic James Cameron, Titanic*

Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential

1996

Cameron Crowe, Jerry Maguire Milos( Forman for The People vs. Larry Flynt

Joel Coen, Fargo Joel Coen, Fargo

Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies

Anthony Minghella, The English Patient Anthony Minghella, The English Patient*

Scott Hicks, Shine Scott Hicks, Shine

1995

Mike Figgis for Leaving Las Vegas Mike Figgis for Leaving Las Vegas

Mel Gibson for Braveheart Mel Gibson for Braveheart*

Ron Howard for Apollo 13 Chris Noonan for Babe

Ang Lee for Sense and Sensibility Tim Robbins for Dead Man Walking

Michael Radford for Il Postino Michael Radford for Il Postino

1994

Mike Newell for Four Weddings and a Funeral Woody Allen for Bullets Over Broadway

Frank Darabont for The Shawshank Redemption Krzysztof Kieslowski for Red

Robert Redford for Quiz Show Robert Redford for Quiz Show

Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction

Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump*

1993

Andrew Davis for The Fugitive Robert Altman for Short Cuts

Jane Campion for The Piano Jane Campion for The Piano

James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day

Martin Scorsese for The Age Of Innocence Jim Sheridan for In the Name Of the Father

Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List*

1992

Robert Altman for The Player Robert Altman for The Player

Rob Reiner for A Few Good Men Martin Brest for Scent Of a Woman

Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven*

James Ivory for Howards End James Ivory for Howards End

Neil Jordan for The Crying Game Neil Jordan for The Crying Game

1991

Barbra Streisand for The Prince Of Tides John Singleton for Boyz N the Hood

Oliver Stone for JFK Oliver Stone for JFK

Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise

Barry Levinson for Bugsy Barry Levinson for Bugsy

Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs*

1990

Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III

Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves*

Barry Levinson for Avalon Stephen Frears for The Grifters

Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas

Giuseppe Tornatore for Cinema Paradiso Barbet Schroeder for Reversal Of Fortune

For the win only

+also won Best Picture
(best picture that didn’t match director)

2015 Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant

2014 Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant

2013 Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

2012 Ben Affleck, Argo Ang Lee, Life of Pi (Argo)

2011 Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

2010 Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech

2009 Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

2008 Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire+

2007 Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+

2006 Martin Scorsese, The Departed Martin Scorsese, The Departed+

2005 Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain (Crash)

2004 Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby Clint Eastwood, MDB+

2003 Peter Jackson, Return of the King Peter Jackson, Return of the King+

2002 Rob Marshall, Chicago Roman Polanski, The Pianist (Chicago)

2001 Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind+

2000 Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger Steven Soderbergh, Traffic (Gladiator)

1999 Sam Mendes, American Beauty Sam Mendes, American Beauty+

1998 Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan Steven Spielberg (Shakespeare in Love)

1997 Jim Cameron, Titanic Jim Cameron, Titanic+

1996 Anthony Minghella, English Patient Anthony Minghella, English Patient+

1995 Ron Howard, Apollo 13 Mel Gibson, Braveheart+

1994 Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump+

1993 Seven Spielberg, Schindler’s List Steven Spielberg, Schindler’s List+

1992 Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven+

1991 Jonathan Demme, Silence of the Lambs Jonathan Demme, Silence of the Lambs +

1990 Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves+

1989 Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July (Driving Miss Daisy – director Beresford not nommed for Oscar or DGA)

1988 Barry Levinson, Rain Man Barry Levinson, Rain Man+

1987 Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor+

1986 Oliver Stone, Platoon Oliver Stone, Platoon+

1985 Steven Spielberg, Color Purple Sidney Pollack, Out of Africa+

1984: Milos Forman, Amadeus Milos Forman, Amadeus+

1983: James Brooks, Terms of Endearment James Brooks, Terms of Endearment+

1982: Richard Attenborough, Gandhi Richard Attenborough, Gandhi+

1981: Warren Beatty, Reds Warren Beatty, Reds (Chariots of Fire)

1980: Robert Redford, Ordinary People Robert Redford, Ordinary People+

1979: Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer+

1978: Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter+

1977: Woody Allen, Annie Hall Woody Allen, Annie Hall+

1976: John Avildson, Rocky John Avildson, Rocky+

1975: Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest+

1974: Frances Coppola, Godfather II Frances Coppola, Godfather II+

1973: George Roy Hill, The Sting George Roy Hill+

1972: Frances Coppola, The Godfather Bob Fosse, Cabaret (Godfather)

1971: William Friedkin, The French Connection William Friedkin, The French Connection+

1970: Franklin J. Schaffner, Patton Franklin J. Schaffner , Patton+

1969: John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy+

1968: Anthony Harvey, Lion in Winter Carol Reed, Oliver+

1967: Mike Nichols, The Graduate Mike Nichols, The Graduate (In Heat of the Night)

1966: Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons+

1965: Robert Wise, The Sound of Music Robert Wise, the Sound of Music+

1964: George Cukor, My Fair Lady George Cukor, My Fair Lady+

1963: Tony Richardson, Tom Jones Tony Richardson, Tom Jones+

1962: David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia+

1961: Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story+

1960: Billy Wilder, The Apartment Billy Wilder, The Apartment+

1959: William Wyler, Ben Hur William Wyler, Ben Hur+

1958: Vincent Minnelli, Gigi Vincent Minnelli, Gigi+

1957: David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai+

1956: George Stevens, Giant George Stevens, Giant (Around/World in 80 Days)

1955: Delbert Mann, Marty Delbert Mann, Marty+

1954: Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront+

1953: Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity+

1952: John Ford, The Quiet Man John Ford, The Quiet Man (Greatest Show on Earth)

1951: George Stevens, A Place in the Sun George Stevens, A Place in the Sun (An American in Paris)

1950: Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve+

1949: Robert Rossen, All the King’s Men Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter To Three Wives (All the King’s Men)

1948: Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter To Three Wives John Huston, Treasure of the Sierra Madre (Hamlet)