I don’t know much about BAFTA except that they’ve changed their voting procedures a lot. For instance, in 2000 they shifted their date from after the Oscars to being held before the Oscars. Thus, you can’t really count their history leading up to 2000 to compare with Oscar wins. They also changed their voting procedure in 2012 to be more like the Academy’s where the individual branches select the nominees and then the entire membership chooses the winners (I think). They’ve also instituted a diversity mandate which only impacts the British film categories, and not the major categories like Best Picture (although wouldn’t that be great if they did?).
The last time they picked a winner that Oscar matched was in 2013 when they chose 12 Years a Slave as their Best Picture winner and Alfonso Cuaron as their Best Director winner. Before that, Argo and The Artist and The Hurt Locker all matched with Oscar. But there has been a shift recently: in the past two years, they have not matched with Oscar when it comes to Best Picture: Boyhood lost to Birdman, The Revenant lost to Spotlight. Then again, we haven’t had a year like this one in the past two years either. Boyhood suffered backlash from the industry because it so heavily dominated the critics awards. People were like, really? That? Yes, really that. It should have won but didn’t. The Revenant also suffered backlash for a similar reason. It was expected to sweep the Oscars and again it was “really that?” And Spotlight eked out a win. I have yet to figure out what drove that. It could be the growing hivemind of the internet which allows buzz and backlashes to grow more quickly than they used to.
But, from a stats perspective, Boyhood did not win PGA/DGA or SAG, while The Revenant won the DGA but not the PGA or SAG. This year, La La Land has PGA/DGA, plus a sweep of the Globes in the bag. It has won on both the preferential and plurality ballots. It is suffering the usual backlash, but not from the people who vote on awards. If the Academy really were a more diverse bunch, La La Land might be in more trouble, but if its main complaint is that it is “too white,” then that won’t be enough to harm it among a mostly white voting body. If they love it, they will vote for it. It’s as simple as that.
Finally, there isn’t any one film poised to benefit from a backlash. If there was, it might make a difference, but as it is, there are many, not just one. The same Oscar strategist behind La La land is or was also behind Moonlight so you aren’t going to see a Clash of the Titans like you saw last year when three films were up for Best Picture and had three different strategists behind them. Hidden Figures (Fox), Fences (Paramount), Lion (Weinstein Co.), etc. Sentiments seem split up and not united. Of all of them, Hidden Figures is poised as a spoiler because it won the SAG Ensemble and because it is playing like gangbusters at the box office. But next weekend at the BAFTAS? La La Land doesn’t have any real competition and will likely sweep.
For BAFTA, the movies up for Best Picture are:
La La Land
Arrival
Manchester by the Sea
I, Daniel Blake
Moonlight
You can scratch I, Daniel Blake off the list. The Ken Loach might take a few key awards but BAFTA, like all other voting bodies, tend to lean into the Oscars. So if it isn’t a Best Pic nominee there, forget it. It probably won’t be Arrival because it hasn’t really won any significant awards leading up to the Oscars and the BAFTA, like all other voting bodies, tend to do what everyone else has done. So that leaves La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea. The thing is that only two of those have a corresponding Best Director nomination.
Let’s look at the other categories and see what might go down:
Best British Film
American Honey
Denial
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
I, Daniel Blake – can’t lose
Notes on Blindness
Under the Shadow
Best Film Not in the English Language
Dheepan
Julieta
Mustang
Son of Saul
Toni Erdmann – probably one of these two.
Best Documentary
13th – I’m guessing this one, since it’s the only Oscar nominee of the bunch.
The Beatles: Eight Days a Week – The Touring Years
The Eagle Huntress
Notes on Blindness
Weiner
Best Animated Film
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Zootopia – probably this is the winner.
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land) – most likely your winner.
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
I, Daniel Blake
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight – probably this is your winner but Manchester could easily win it. They are not in competition with each other at the Oscars.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival – either this.
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
Lion – or this.
Nocturnal Animals
Arrival is much more complex for thousands and thousands of people to get. So I’m not sure they will all choose that one. Lion is an easier sink-in for a lot of people. Then again, Arrival has so many nominations – it seems like it would have to win somewhere. Seems to be down to one of those two.
Best Actor
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge) <–maybe him.
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) <—probably can’t lose.
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land) <—in a sweep.
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Casey Affleck has this in the bag. His only competition is either Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge (British!) or Ryan Gosling for La La Land in a sweep. Could happen. You never know.
Best Actress
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)
Emma Stone (La La Land) <—probably can’t lose.
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone should win this, considering how much they love the movie. I can’t imagine anyone beating her.
Best Supporting Actor
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
Dev Patel (Lion) — maybe him.
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) — I am going to assume Mahershala Ali wins this but they do have sort of a spotty record in terms of matching the general consensus and the Oscars in this category. I will not be surprised if, say, Dev Patel wins here.
Best Supporting Actress
Hayley Squires (I, Daniel Blake)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Viola Davis (Fences) I will go ahead and predict Viola Davis although this is another place where something odd might happen. In this category it is, again, kind of hit and miss. But Viola Davis has not lost anywhere so…
Best Original Music
Arrival
Jackie
La La Land <—can’t lose.
Lion
Nocturnal Animals
Best Cinematography
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land <— probably can’t lose
Lion <–maybe this
Nocturnal Animals
Best Editing
Arrival <–maybe this.
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land <–probably this
Manchester by the Sea
Nocturnal Animals
Best Production Design
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar! <–should be this
La La Land <–but probably this
Nocturnal Animals
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie <—think this deserves it
La La Land <—but probably this
Best Make up & Hair
Doctor Strange <–maybe this
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hacksaw Ridge
Nocturnal Animals <–probably this
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land <–your winner
Best Visual Effects
Arrival <–your winner even though it isn’t nominated at the Oscars
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Jungle Book <–but this might win, and will probably win Oscar
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story