Predictions Friday – What are the Essential Building Blocks for Best Picture?

October is already nearly half over and there’s no Best Picture frontrunner in sight. This caution to lay bets may be because pundits last year found themselves caught off-guard by La La Land’s shocking loss and Moonlight’s surprise victory. Moonlight became the first film since Braveheart to win without winning any major guild award first so it didn’t seem to be holding the cards it needed. But, as we’ve already said, predicting La La Land meant that you were also predicting a stat to fail that hadn’t failed since Braveheart — the lack of a SAG Ensemble nomination — so in a way La La Land and Moonlight were both risky choices for Best Picture. And yet, when you look at the nuts and bolts of it, you’ll see that, despite not winning any major guilds, Moonlight was the more likely winner based on a few key factors.

The factors were these:

Acting
Writing
Directing
Thematic

Acting

Acting is one of the most important aspects to any Best Picture winner’s chances. Generally, someone from the cast of a BP winner will have received a nomination, but not always. Slumdog Millionaire, which was the frontrunner to beat all other frontrunners, and blew everything else out of the water in terms of wins, had no acting nominations at all. But in the end that didn’t matter. It still fit the bill of being an ensemble work, as evidenced by its inclusion among SAG Ensemble nominees — and then when it won it that clenched it. Braveheart, still the only film to win Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nomination (notably, in the very first year the SAG Awards began), still had a big robust ensemble. Over the past 90 years, there aren’t many Best Picture winners that aren’t filled with actors. Just try to find one. You will fail. Million Dollar Baby was probably the film with the fewest number of actors, but a virtually solo movie like Gravity winning? Not bloody likely. When it’s just one or two characters? Still virtually unheard of. This doesn’t mean that eventually that SAG Ensemble stat won’t break, but whatever movie eventually wins BP without it will have to appeal to actors in one way or another. Until then, and usually movies with lots of actors are a far better wager.

If I could name one mistake many pundits make it’s that they seem to forget who Academy really are — the membership is dominated by actors. By the far the largest branch, the actors have more voting power than any other. Actors are more likely to prefer films with lots of great roles — like The Departed, No Country for Old Men, Spotlight, Birdman, 12 Years a Slave — over films that don’t have fewer actors — like Life of Pi or Gravity or even Avatar (where the human identity of characters is hidden under layers of performance capture).

Which films this year are in the running with strong ensembles? All of them. The Shape of Water, Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Florida Project, Lady Bird, Get Out, The Post — they can all boast strong acting ensembles. The strongest of them will turn up as SAG nominees.

Directing

Directing is the second most important factor, for obvious reasons. The winning film will always be well directed. Even some of the worst films that have won were directed with some measure of elegance and flair. Harvey Weinstein was particularly good at launching relatively unknown directors like Tom Hooper or Michel Hazanivicous into the Oscar spotlight. Lately, the Best Picture winners have been winning without their directors winning matched trophies. Moonlight, Spotlight, 12 Years a Slave — all won Best Picture while their directors did not. This used to be more of a rarity. It’s still more common for the two top prizes not to be split, and that’s especially true if the director is as well-liked as the winning movie. This was true for Alejandro G. Inarritu for Birdman, Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech, Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker, etc. They have to want to reward the director as much as they like the movie. The split we’re seeing lately, I believe, has something to do with the new way Best Picture ballots are tallied. I do believe that La La Land would have won Best Picture, and probably The Revenant too, were it not for the way the preferential ballot is counted. To win on the first round requires 50% + one on the first round and if half the Academy likes a movie that much, they’re very likely going to honor it in other top categories like Director, Screenplay, maybe acting. Splits may be more likely to occur whenever the ballot tabulation goes into more than one round of counting — as ballots for the least preferred movies are redistributed. I still don’t think Avatar would have won because it just would not have. Precious, in fact, was probably a more likely threat to The Hurt Locker. We know this because The Hurt Locker won the sound awards. Both of them. Had a technical spectacle like Avatar been that popular, we would have expected it to win those. Meanwhile, Precious did much better than expected.

We’ve even seen proof that it’s possible win Best Picture without even a directing nomination as happened in 2012 with Argo. It does seem harder to win without a DGA nomination. I think Driving Miss Daisy was the last film to do that, 35 years ago, in 1982. Directing is important and key. Also important to remember that the Directors branch and the DGA do not have a parallel influence anymore. They used to be more closely linked. But now, the Oscar ballots are due just one day after the DGA announces, so there is no time to sync consensus. It’s also always possible for a rogue nomination in Best Director to show up without a corresponding Best Picture nomination but that’s less common with the expanded ballot.

The strongest directing notices right now swirling around are these:

Guillermo Del Toro for The Shape of Water — a brilliant director whose Pan’s Labyrinth won three Oscars but has yet to receive a Best Director nomination. He’s a threat not only because he make a great great film but he is beyond charming and charismatic in front of a crowd.

Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk — has NEVER EVEN BEEN NOMINATED for an Oscar in directing, which many believe verges on a being travesty. Despite (or because) of this, he has built up massive amounts of goodwill and clout, and has directed one of the best films of the year.

Joe Wright for Darkest Hour — was not nominated for Atonement, though it had a Best Picture nomination, and his fate this year will depend on how much they love the movie.

Dee Rees for Mudbound — is quite popular within the industry and her film has a strong ensemble and thematic content.

Steven Spielberg for The Post — just had a documentary about his career broadcast on HBO, and if The Post is good he’ll be earning his 8th nomination for Best Director.

Jordan Peele for Get Out — directed one of the biggest hits of the year, thanks largely to his outstanding creative vision.

Luca Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name — has been building up a lot of prestige cred with his past few films.

Darren Aronofsky for mother! — boldly and deliberately courted controversy with a go-for-broke bravery the directors branch might reward for the audacity of his risk-taking.

Alexander Payne for Downsizing — is always a threat for a directing nomination as he is quite beloved and admired.

Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird — makes her solo directorial debut with a well-received film that could land her one of the coveted five slots.

Paul Thomas Anderson for a film about which very little is known — could deliver the year’s biggest surprise. He’s doing double-duty as the film’s cinematographer and that alone could get him an nomination in this category.

Writing

Ideally, the Best Picture winner has all of the prerequisite nominations — acting, directing and writing. Sometimes they don’t have acting and sometimes they don’t have screenplay. Very rarely they don’t have directing. But in general, these components must be present and exceptional. Seven of the last eight Best Picture winners also won Screenplay. That’s an even more reliable predictive match than directing. Less likely for the win, but not out of the question, is for writer/directors to win both. It happens, just not often. Birdman is one example. Moonlight is another, though both these were co-written. Still, writing matters. Not just because of the relatively small number of voters who are writers, but because a good film has to start with a good script. Even a movie that lacks strong direction can turn out to be interesting if the script and the actors are good.

There is a noticeable preference for adapted screenplays to be paired with Best Picture, with 24 of the Best Picture winners since 1960 being adapted, and 13 made from original screenplays. And there seems to be a dramatic preference for films that were not written and directed by one person. While original screenplays written by just one person can and have often won Best Screenplay they haven’t won Best Picture. So if that factoid holds true this year, it would be a precedent that Three Billboards, Lady Bird, and in theory, Dunkirk would each need to disprove. Dunkirk could win Screenplay and Director and then not win Picture. Not saying these films can’t win — they would just have to be the first to do so in all of Academy history.

In adapted, so far, we have these likely nominees: Call Me by Your Name and Mudbound. But the majority of expected BP nominees are original – Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, The Florida Project, Downsizing, Suburbicon, The Post, Three Billboards, etc.

Finally, since the initiation of the preferential ballot, the perceived substance and subject matter of movie seems to really make a difference. Gone are the days when films like No Country for Old Men and The Departed and The Hurt Locker could win. Now, movies like that don’t seem to do as well on the ballot. The new ballot seems to favor movies about good people doing good things (Spotlight), or movies that define a character’s purpose (like Birdman), or characters you want to reward because you feel so much emotional connection to them (Moonlight). So look for movies that aren’t quite as dark or divisive to go along with all of the above.

And with that, my current predictions:

Best Picture
Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Call Me by Your Name
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Post
Get Out
The Florida Project
Battle of the Sexes
Lady Bird

Strong Contenders:
Downsizing
Mudbound
I, Tonya
Wonder Woman
The Big Sick
Hostiles

Dark Horses
Detroit
mother!
Molly’s Game

Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Jordan Peele, Get Out

Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Strong Contenders:
Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel
Soairse Ronan, Lady Bird
Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion
Rosamund Pike, Hostiles
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

Best Actor
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

Strong Contenders:
Algee Smith, Detroit
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Christian Bale, Hostiles

Supporting Actress
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Kristen Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri  
Ben Mendohlson, Darkest Hour
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Michael Shannon, Shape of Water

Original Screenplay
Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Three Billboards
Lady Bird
Get Out

Strong Contenders
Dunkirk
The Post
Detroit
Downsizing
The Big Sick

Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name
Mudbound
Wonderstruck
Molly’s Game
The Disaster Artist

Editing
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Three Billboards
Get Out

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Shape of Water
Mudbound

Production Design
Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Beauty and the Beast

Costumes
Beauty and the Beast
Shape of Water
Wonder Wheel
Darkest Hour
Blade Runner 2049

I still have no idea if this will be a year where one movie starts winning and never stops or a year where the wins are split up all over the place.