Fear drives many of the year’s strongest ensemble films — fear of evil, fear of the unknown, fear of change in a culture that resists it. Fear of truth, fear of each other, fear of the future. With the SAG ensemble vote looming large, we know from recent history to expect surprises. With each new year, the tastes of the public, the critics, and the awards watchers shifts. We are all influenced by what happened the previous year, what is happening in our world at the moment, what the popular sentiment is of the day. Are we angry, happy, depressed, sad? Are we looking for relief, redemption, a good cry?
The one thing that remains constant is that actors drive the Best Picture race. Year after year, we know that the SAG award for Outstanding Ensemble matters. Even though the nominees are chosen each year by a different committee of 2000 voting members randomly selected from the ranks, the SAG ensemble has almost always had the Best Picture winner among its five films named for best ensemble. Braveheart was the only exception, way back in 1995 — the first year of the SAG Awards.
This reliable stat will someday be broken, but it hasn’t happened yet. There are several reasons. The first is that actors matter when it comes to voting. They tend to like films driven by actors as opposed to any other thing, like visual effects. Also, if a film lands there and at DGA and PGA and everywhere else, that recognition across guilds demonstrates broad support within the industry. It means that any random person plucked from Anytown, USA, will probably like the movie enough to name it one of the best of the year. This has always been true, but it’s especially true now with the preferential ballot, which really can’t tolerate any kind of dislike.
In all, 31 out of the 40 nominations for Ensemble since 2009 (after the Academy expanded their ballot) went on to get Best Picture nominations. Only nine did not:
2009 — Nine
2010 — Ø
2011 — Bridesmaids
2012 — The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
2013 — August: Osage County, The Butler
2014 — Ø
2015 — Beasts of No Nation, Straight Outta Compton, Trumbo
2016 — Captain Fantastic
These exceptions are for films that may seem odd and inexplicable in many cases unless you remember that the Oscar race is only partly driven by the films and the people who cover the awards. A lot of it is done by strategists and publicists who are really good at selling their movies to the right people. They are the best in the business and they work incredibly hard to land those nominations. Some of them are better than others, but in general when you see a totally “da fuq” nomination, that’s the work of a really great publicist.
What drives them is also that they like the movie stars involved. They are big stars, well known, liked, and admired across the board from television to film. People always say that access is key, so if something is on Netflix the nominating committee might be more inclined to watch it. Well, at least some people say that — I have no idea if it’s true or not. There is no way to measure such a thing. I look at patterns and what I see with these one-offs, with one or two exceptions, are big ensembles filled with lots of stars. Acting showcases like August: Osage County or Nine are chosen by actors but might not be chosen by all Academy members.
Here are the films that are currently hovering at the top of Best Picture prediction lists:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Frances McDormand, Woody Harrelson, Sam Rockwell, Peter Dinklage, Lucas Hedges, etc)
Battle of the Sexes (Emma Stone, Steve Carell, Sarah Silverman, Bill Pullman, Alan Cumming, Elisabeth Shue, Fred Armisen, Andrea Riseborough, etc)
Darkest Hour (Gary Oldman, Kristen Scott Thomas, Ben Mendelsohn, Stephen Dillane, etc)
Shape of Water (Sally Hawkins, Michael Shannon, Richard Jenkins, Octavia Spencer, Michael Stuhlbarg, etc)
Dunkirk (Kenneth Branagh, Mark Rylance, Tom Hardy, Harry Styles, etc)
Get Out (Daniel Kaluuya, Catherine Keener, Bradley Whitford, Allison Williams, etc)
Mudbound (Carrie Mulligan, Garrett Hedlund, Jason Clarke, Mary J. Blige, etc)
I, Tonya (Margot Robbie, Alison Janney, Bobby Cannavale, Sebastian Stan, Julianne Nicholson, etc)
Hostiles (Christian Bale, Rosamund Pike, Ben Foster, Stephen Lang, Timothée Chalamet, Peter Mullan, Q’orianka Kilcher, Adam Beach, Wes Studi, etc)
Lady Bird (Saoirse Ronan, Laurie Metcalf, Tracy Letts, Lucas Hedges, Lois Smith, Timothée Chalamet, etc)
Downsizing (Matt Damon, Kristen Wiig, Christoph Waltz, Hong Chau, etc)
Mother! (Jennifer Lawrence, Michelle Pfeiffer, Javier Bardem, Ed Harris. Domhnall Gleeson)
Then you have films that will likely be driven more by love of the film than the large ensemble cast, but that also might have a tiny bit of a struggle competing with the larger ensembles, like La La Land did last year:
Call Me by Your Name (Armie Hammer, Timothée Chalamet, Michael Stuhlbarg, etc)
The Florida Project (Willem Dafoe, Brooklynn Prince, etc)
The Big Sick (Kumail Nanjiani, Zoe Kazan, Holly Hunter, Ray Romano)
And then there are films that have really strong ensembles, whether or not they are predicted to get nominations — their ensembles are so strong that they might land in the SAG ensemble five anyway:
The Meyerowitz Stories (Dustin Hoffman, Ben Stiller, Adam Sandler, Emma Thompson, Rebecca Miller, Judd Hirsch, etc)
The Disaster Artist (James Franco, Seth Rogen, Judd Apatow, Sharon Stone, etc)
Murder on the Orient Express (Johnny Depp, Michelle Pfeiffer, Penelope Cruz, Kenneth Branagh, Judi Dench, Willem Dafoe, Olivia Colman, Josh Gad, Leslie Odom Jr., even Derek Jacobi.)
Suburbicon (Matt Damon, Julianne Moore, Oscar Isaac, etc)
Detroit (John Boyega, Will Poulter, Algee Smith, Jason Mitchell, Anthony Mackie, John Krasinski, etc)
Blade Runner 2049 (Ryan Gosling, Harrison Ford, Mackenzie Davis, Sean Young, Robin Wright, etc)
Wonder Woman (Gal Gadot, Robin Wright, Chris Pine, Danny Houston, David Thewlis, Connie Nielson, etc)
Wonder Wheel (Kate Winslet, Jim Belushi, Juno Temple, Justin Timberlake, Max Casella, Tony Sirico)
And then, of course, we have the late breakers — films that may or may not be seen in time to get a SAG ensemble nomination:
The Post (Meryl Streep, Tom Hanks, Sarah Paulson, Bruce Greenwood, Carrie Coon, Bradley Whitford, Jesse Plemons, Michael Stuhlbarg, Bob Odinkirk, Alison Brie)
All the Money in the World (Michelle Williams, Kevin Spacey, Mark Wahlberg, Timothy Hutton)
Greatest Showman (Hugh Jackman, Michelle Williams, Zac Efron, Rebecca Ferguson, Diahann Carroll)
Phantom Thread (Daniel Day-Lewis, Lesley Manville, Camilla Rutherford, Vicky Krieps)
All of these films and only five slots for Ensemble? Briefly, let’s look at the movies that have been nominated for Outstanding Ensemble with no other SAG acting nominations since 2009:
2011 — Midnight in Paris
2014 — The Grand Budapest Hotel
2015 — Straight Outta Compton
That’s it. Almost all of the ensemble nominees also had an acting nomination in another category. So that might help, but as we can see, three films since 2009 were nominated with no other nominations.
So what that tells you is that, generally speaking, an ensemble nomination could be dragged along with a contender for one of the other categories. Here are the films that COULD wind up with an ensemble nomination and no other nominations:
Dunkirk (Mark Rylance is their best shot)
The Meyerowitz Stories (although it’s possible Adam Sandler could sneak in)
Get Out (might be headed for a Best Picture nomination without any acting nominations)
But the rest of them are all tied to a acting contender:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Frances McDormand lead, Sam Rockwell supporting.
Battle of the Sexes – Emma Stone lead.
Darkest Hour – Gary Oldman lead, Kristen Scott Thomas supporting, Ben Mendelsohn supporting.
The Shape of Water – Sally Hawkins lead, Michael Shannon, supporting, Octavia Spencer, supporting.
Mudbound – Mary J. Blige, supporting
I, Tonya – Margot Robbie lead, Alison Janney supporting.
Hostiles – Christian Bale lead, Rosamund Pike supporting.
Lady Bird – Saoirse Ronan lead, Laurie Metcalf supporting.
Downsizing – Matt Damon lead, Christoph Waltz, Hong Chau, supporting.
mother! – Jennifer Lawrence lead, Michelle Pfeiffer supporting.
Call Me by Your Name – Timothée Chalamet lead, Armie Hammer, Michael Stuhlbarg supporting.
The Florida Project – Brooklynn Prince lead, Willem Dafoe supporting.
The Big Sick – Kumail Nanjiani lead, Holly Hunter supporting.
The Post – Meryl Streep, Tom Hanks lead.
The Greatest Showman – Hugh Jackman lead, Michelle Williams supporting.
All the Money in the World – Michelle Williams lead, Kevin Spacey supporting.
Phantom Thread – Daniel Day-Lewis, lead. Vicky Krieps, supporting
With their Christmas Day premieres, The Post and Phantom Thread could be breaking too late for enough SAG voters to see and thus would free up a spot. The SAG nominating committee is a randomly selected group of 2000 voters. No one knows where they’ll come from, what their tastes and preferences are. Predicting the nominees is always a challenge because of that. The reason that this nomination is a reliable stat for a Best Picture winner is that a film that is beloved across the board should show up there, whether it wins or not. Actors dominate the Academy so it would make sense that the winning film would have to appeal to actors. Most people who analyze the Oscars don’t think the way actors do. They think the way directors, writers, or critics do. But start thinking like an actor to find your Best Picture winner almost all of the time. Although, of course, everyone else has to like the movie too.
We don’t have a frontrunner yet. We have no idea what is going to win, but we know that there are some films that are more likely to show up at SAG because they contain in them actors who will also be nominated in other categories.
7/9 times since 2009, the Best Supporting Actress winner was in an ensemble-nominated film.
6/9 times since 2009, the Best Actor winner was in an ensemble-nominated film.
6/9 times since 2009, the Best Supporting Actor winner was in an ensemble-nominated film.
3/9 times since 2009, the Best Actress winner was in an ensemble-nominated film.
Given all of that information, how do I see Ensemble playing out? It’s really too early to say, but right now I would probably predict these five:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water
The Post (sight unseen)
Dunkirk
But I would also think that any of these have a really good shot to upset:
Call Me by Your Name
Get Out
Lady Bird
Battle of the Sexes
I, Tonya
Mudbound
But don’t be surprised if these show up:
The Meyerowitz Stories
The Disaster Artist
Murder on the Orient Express
And what film could win the SAG ensemble, even if it doesn’t go on to win Best Picture? For some reason Three Billboards keeps popping up in my head, but at the moment, I have no idea.