Best Actor – Gary Oldman’s Astonishing Work and Those Who Could Upset [Poll!]

Every so often the Best Actor race has one performance that is unequivocal. The weight of the performance, the perfection of the execution makes it the undeniable frontrunner. This was true of Daniel Day-Lewis as Lincoln, true of Forest Whitaker as Idi Amin, true of Phillip Seymour Hoffman as Capote, true of Sean Penn as Harvey Milk, and it’s true of Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill. Many have played the prime minister who led the charge that saved the world from Hitler, but none have ever been this good, this exacting, this towering. Of course, there will be those who disagree with that assessment, either because they have a favorite Churchill performance already or because they favor another actor in this year’s race. Or maybe they aren’t fond of Oldman’s politics or personality. None of that changes this fact of Oldman’s performance: it is the best of the year.

Oldman’s acting career has been impressive from the start, playing Sid Vicious in Sid and Nancy, but he’s been brilliant in JFK, True Romance, The Contender, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. The list goes on. And yet, though he’s appeared in every kind of movie imaginable, from the smallest independents to the biggest blockbusters, Oldman has only been nominated for an Oscar once. His performance this year is the work of a master of the craft of acting.

The Oscar race is a game of strategy and perception, of publicity and likability. It isn’t as easy to call as people think because of all these things. The Oscar story, the “narrative” plays into how people vote. Has the actor won before? If so, how many times? Do they play a likable character? A sympathetic character? Do they have a lot of friends in town who will vote for them? Are they in a film that will be a strong Best Picture contender? All of these things come into play.

Most will simply predict Gary Oldman and that will be that. But there are several other potential performances that could rise to challenge.

With Best Picture heat:

Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
Christian Bale (Hostiles)
Matt Damon (Downsizing)
Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)

Strength of performance:
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
Chadwick Boseman (Marshall)
Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
Mark Wahlberg (All the Money in the World)
Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
James McAvoy (Split)
Robert Pattinson (Good Time)
Sam Elliott (The Hero)
Woody Harrelson (LBJ)
Miles Teller (Thank You For Your Service)
Adam Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories)

As yet unknown:
Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
Tom Hanks (The Post)

How many Best Actor winners came from Best Picture winners over the past 20 years? It doesn’t happen that often, and in fact, not since 2011.

2011 – Jean Dujardin, The Artist
2010 – Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
2000 – Russell Crowe, Gladiator
1999 – Kevin Spacey, American Beauty

Only four times over a span of  20 years is not a very reliable stat. But in that time, 17 out of 20 Best Actor winners came from Best Picture nominees. With the expanded ballot, only once did the Best Actor winner not come from a Best Picture nominee: Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart.

I would be willing to bet that even if Darkest Hour didn’t get a Best Picture nomination, Oldman would still be the frontrunner to win, especially since this year’s race is driven either by ensembles, like Dunkirk, or by films about women.

What kinds of awards do the winners usually receive leading up to the Oscars? Let’s take a quick look at recent examples:

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea – Best Picture nominee, never won before, lots of friends in town, admirable/sympathetic character
Golden Globe
BAFTA
SAG

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant — Best Picture nominee, never won before, lots of friends in town, admirable/sympathetic character
Golden Globe
BAFTA
SAG

Eddie Redmayne, Theory of Everything — Best Picture nominee, never won before, not many lots of friends in town, admirable/sympathetic character
Golden Globe
BAFTA
SAG

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club — Best Picture nominee, never won before, lots of friends in town, admirable/sympathetic character
Golden Globe
BAFTA
SAG

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln — Best Picture nominee, won twice before, lots of friends in town, admirable/sympathetic character
Golden Globe
BAFTA
SAG

Jean Dujardin, The Artist — Best Picture nominee winner, never won before, admirable/sympathetic character
Golden Globe
BAFTA
SAG

Colin Firth, The King’s Speech — Best Picture nominee winner, never won before, lots of friends in town, admirable/sympathetic character
Golden Globe
BAFTA
SAG

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart — Best Picture nominee, never won before, lots of friends in town, admirable/sympathetic character
Golden Globe
BAFTA
SAG

The biggest surprise I’ve ever seen in the Best Actor race since I’ve been covering the Oscars was when Adrien Brody won for The Pianist in 2002 and when Denzel Washington won for Training Day in 2001. In both of those cases, they were hotly buzzed but hadn’t won anything major except a few critics awards. Adrien Brody caught a last minute surge of popularity for The Pianist, which also surprised by winning Best Director. And Denzel Washington, it is believed, benefited when questions about Russell Crowe’s temper swallowed up his campaign for A Beautiful Mind (he had also already won for Gladiator and Denzel Washington had only won a supporting Oscar by that time).

Either way, it looks very much like the Best Actor race, at least right now, is focused on:

Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

And the maybes:
Robert Pattinson (Good Time)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
Christian Bale (Hostiles)
Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)

Long shots:
Matt Damon (Downsizing)
Harry Dean Stanton (Lucky)
Chadwick Boseman (Marshall)
Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
Mark Wahlberg (All the Money in the World)
Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
James McAvoy (Split)
Sam Elliott (The Hero)
Woody Harrelson (LBJ)
Miles Teller (Thank You For Your Service)
Adam Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories)

The Unknowns:
Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
Tom Hanks (The Post)

That’s the way I’d rank them right now. Here’s a poll for you to rank them your way.

[poll id=”31″]