The Shape of Water Leads AwardsDaily’s Oscar Squad

Best Picture remains up in the air. The way it’s shaping out right now is this:

If you rely on the SAG ensemble stat, only these films can win: Get Out, Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Mudbound, The Big Sick
Whatever film you think is going to win Best Picture, you should probably also choose that movie for Best Screenplay. So, for example, in our polling of our AwardsDaily staff we have Shape of Water out front but Three Billboards in first for Screenplay. Probably that’s wrong. Screenplay wins match Picture wins since the preferential ballot far more frequently than Best Director. I will illustrate:

2009 — Hurt Locker: Original Screenplay/Director
2010 — King’s Speech:Original Screenplay/Director
2011 — The Artist: Original Screenplay/Director
2012 — Argo: Adapted Screenplay
2013 — 12 Years a Slave: Adapted Screenplay/Director
2014 — Birdman: Original Screenplay/Director
2015 — Spotlight: Adapted Screenplay/Director
2016 — Moonlight: Adapted Screenplay/Director

Nothing is ever 100%, but given how closely screenplay has matched Best Picture since 2009, it’s likely your Best Picture winner will also be you screenplay winner. This year almost all of the heat is in Original Screenplay. So I have Get Out winning Picture, Screenplay, Editing. Of course, if you go that way and it isn’t your big winner, you lose a lot more than if you hedge your bets and split things up a bit.

For The Shape of Water to win, it would have to crush the SAG stat – it’s going to happen sooner or later so it’s not outside the realm of possibility. For Lady Bird or Get Out to win, the Golden Globe director stat has to go. Again, not the crucial be all, end all. Three Billboards only missed the NBR Top Ten. None of them have all of the stats neatly lined up, showing what a crazy year this has been in terms of Best Picture.
Best Actress is also wide open. We have Saoirse Ronan out front but it’s not settled yet, not by a long shot, though she is a good bet for the moment.
If Roger Deakins isn’t the frontrunner in cinematography, it suddenly becomes a wide open race that will either end with one film dominating the crafts or those awards split up all over the place.