The State of the Race: Post PGA Rundown – Stuck in the Middle With You

The PGA has now determined this to be NOT a Birdman year. In so far as we can tell, it COULD be a year like last year, in fact. However, I have to point out that it’s entirely possibly by the end of this whole thing, Guillermo del Toro will be the “third Amigo” of the “Three Amigos” to pull off winning Best Director but not Best Picture because now we will have:

Alfonso Cuaron, Best Director for Gravity – lost Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Best Director for The Revenant – lost BP to Spotlight

Worth noting, that Inarritu did break the pattern with Birdman, of course, which won everything. The Shape of Water — del Toro’s romantic, funny, timely, engaging ode to cinema — bested its competitors on a preferential ballot last night at the PGA, where the 7000 or so of them somehow landed that film with the most votes. Either it won on the first round and there was no second round (but I doubt this, it’s possible) or it somehow won with a recount that involved 11 films. That is significant.

But here is the but. And it’s a big ‘but.’ So far, the Shape of Water won at the Critics Choice (so did La La Land) and it won at the PGA (so did La La Land). It did not get a SAG ensemble nomination (neither did La La Land). While it’s true that the SAG stat will be a stat until it gets knocked over, it’s a stat for a reason. Here are a few things to consider before doing what Anne Thompson did last night, saying The Shape of Water will win Best Picture. Remember, most of us think in terms of how the Oscars usually used to go: most popular film wins. But it gets a little tricky when you fold in the actors. And you simply can’t write them off. If even 2000 of them liked five films better than The Shape of Water (which has an excellent ensemble cast and there was no good reason to leave it out) then that might not be the green light everyone is hoping for. It might be, but it might not be. Here’s why.

The actors are the Academy’s largest branch, doubling or even tripling number of members in any other branch. While it’s true that the actors only nominate in the acting categories, the entire membership picks the winner, the reason we have these crazy off years, I’d bet money on it, would be the actors. They have to like it. The only way we know for sure they like it is if they gave it a SAG ensemble nomination. And it’s also true that there are AFTRA folks in the mix, so they can’t be relied upon 100% as just pure actors but showing up there shows that an average number of people across all walks of life liked these movies, even if you WANT to believe they just liked the ensembles.

So movies like 12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity, Spotlight vs. The Revenant, La La Land vs. Moonlight it seemed that, however strange, the actors helped push the “smaller” character driven films to a win, while the membership supported a more director-driven film for Best Director.

Here are some potential reasons why the SAG stat may indeed fail this year:

1. We haven’t even seen the Oscar nominees yet. We don’t how that’s going to play out, who will be left off of what list, how a film might be boosted or diminished. You can’t tell the whole Oscar story without those noms. Remember the Apollo 13 and Color Purple stat. When their directors were left off the Best Director list it diminished the impact of their films overall (Ben Affleck broke the trend). Still, we just have no way of knowing right now what movies “they” will like. We all assume Shape of Water will lead the nominations based on how it’s going but we don’t know for sure.
2. No film this year has all of the requisite stats we require to predict a Best Picture winner, or at least that I require, meaning no film has across the board nominations in NBR top ten, Globe director, Globe picture, SAG ensemble, etc. This is the first year since the preferential ballot that that is true. So we have a break in the chain which could mean that it’s a signal that we can’t rely on the SAG stat. We won’t know until Oscar night, my friends.
3. I have a feeling that Get Out and Lady Bird competed against each other at Globes for director, at BAFTA for director and I’m betting last night at PGA. What I mean by that is that people want to push them for different reasons if they aren’t their favorite movies. All through the early part of the race they were doing battle — at the National Society of Film Critics, Get Out lost by just one vote. Both films are important, well liked and the kind of films that would ordinarily win. Problem is, there are two of them and not one. So tonight’s SAG showdown will be key.
4. Think about this: how will Academy “give something” to either film without denying the other? They could maybe give Saoirse Ronan Best Actress. Maybe Daniel Kaluuya Best Actor. But really, it will come down to Original Screenplay, where they compete with The Shape of Water too. If they want to give Get Out something it will have to be original screenplay, right? But then they deny Greta Gerwig that honor. You see, they don’t have a way of doing what they usually do by honoring one or the other in a different category. They are all competing in the SAME category of original screenplay and director. So I could see a scenario playing out where they split the difference and The Shape of Water just wins everything.
5. If either Get Out or Lady Bird wins at the SAG tonight that could point to your potential winner. If Three Billboards wins there we’re all lost in the supermarket again. I suppose it could turn up the winner on Oscar night.

Let’s take a look at our handy dandy charts and how they’ve been progressing. What I gather from looking at these charts is simply this: it would appear that our race is now down to two films: Three Billboards and The Shape of Water.  It’s either that or we’re about to live to live through a year we’ve not seen since the implementation of the preferential ballot. And I want to be very clear about this: just because it hasn’t happened, doesn’t mean it won’t happen. We have extenuating circumstances impacting this race — like Lady Bird and Get Out competing against each other, like a potential Three Billboards backlash. And finally, both Three Billboards and Shape of Water are FOX SEARCHLIGHT. How are they going to square that? What if Three Billboards wins SAG? Then they have two movies that seem like they could potentially win.

WHICH MEANS THAT – Three Billboards and The Shape of Water will be competing against each other AND Lady Bird and Get Out for original screenplay. How is that one going to play out?

Your guess is as good as mine. We have a ways to go yet, a backlash to either endure or fight against, a potential precedent buster, and two movies that were celebrated far and wide, neither of which has won a major award. It is a confounding year indeed. Hold onto your butts and your “buts.”