Was it ever Three Billboards vs. Get Out vs. Shape of Water in the early days of the Oscar race? Remember back when the season began and The Shape of Water seemed down for the count? I remember it vividly because it had done so well in Telluride and Venice. Yet I remember how many believed it wasn’t gonna. But it did. At some point, it caught fire and has remained hot. Three Billboards had a much stranger trajectory. I’ll never forget walking in to a screening of Blade Runner 2049 and hearing every Oscar pundit I knew there talk about how great Three Billboards was and how universal its appeal would be. I remember saying, but isn’t it sort of politically correct? The answer to that was unanimous: no. But that was before a backlash bloomed online. Was the backlash going to take the movie down, La La Land style? Well, first you have to believe the backlash was what took La La Land down (I do not think it was). And second, Three Billboards’ popularity doesn’t come from publicity and hype, the frontrunner out of Telluride, predicted to not just win but to sweep. And then there’s Get Out. Underestimated out of the gate, with a few people thinking maybe screenplay, somehow appreciation for this film has only intensified a full year after the film opened.
All three of these movies are entertaining. All three are making money. All three will likely go home with at least one Oscar (or it seems so at the moment). One thing to note about them is that two will make history as films with Best Actress contenders that win Best Picture (not since Million Dollar Baby) — Three Billboards and The Shape of Water. If Three Billboards wins, and Frances McDormand wins, it will still break the same stat, from way way back in 2004. If Get Out wins, it will become the first film written by a single black writer. If Get Out wins screenplay Jordan Peele will become the first black writer to win in original screenplay.
Both Three Billboards and The Shape of Water have the editing nomination. Three Billboards and Get Out have the SAG ensemble nomination. The Shape of Water and Get Out have directing nominations. It’s by far the most confounding year since I’ve been watching the Oscars. Also worth noting, all three are rivals in original screenplay. All three could WIN original screenplay. All three could be bested by Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird in original screenplay.
All three of them deal, in some way, with America under Trump. All three depict scenes of extreme violence. All three revolve around division. All three are about outsiders. All three are about taking the law into your own hands, fighting back. All three have endings that are bittersweet.
The internet has a strong preference for one of these movies, is kind of supportive of another, and really opposed to one. But the internet — film critics and those tasked with writing about the Oscars — are not in line with what the voters are doing. In that way, it is similar to the Birdman year, except that here, voters from everywhere seem to like Three Billboards, where critics here really didn’t. It seems that the surprise of Moonlight winning, a movie people -thought had zero chance, has messed with our ability to figure out which film has the consensus — the real consensus — and what doesn’t. Voting is happening now and is almost over.
Any of these three films could win Best Picture. It’s a coin toss. For both Best Picture and Original Screenplay. It will all be over a week from tomorrow. What a ride.
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Interesting stat: Since the preferential ballot, none of the movies that are the top three highest grossing nominees have won Best Picture. This year those three are Dunkirk, Get Out, and The Post.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/oscar/chart/?view=allcategories&yr=2017&p=.htm
Spotlight had the SAG (won) and BAFTA nods. Very difficult to win without both. GO was snubbed by BAFTA.
The Academy has snubbed nominees who have won critics awards. And if you are going by critics wins, a case can be made for Laurie Metcalf and Willem Dafoe.
No, huge difference between a gay film and a twink film. And frankly the Kevin Spacey stuff didn’t help the marketing efforts for crossover ticket buyers. “It’s legal consent in Italy” makes for an awkward one sheet. And no matter the spin the film didn’t light the box office on fire, which actually surprised me.
And what Chalamet did was piss all over multi-million dollar investors in that film. Especially since he didn’t know what the fuck he was talking about. But he’s TIMOTHEEEE so he gets a little while to grow into a clue
Cool! Didn’t know. He could still be wrong, of course. Easily. Everybody gets some shorts wrong, pretty much every year. Pundits themselves struggle to stay on that 2/3 average, if I remember correctly from Sasha’s table. It’s just not easy to predict them…
Well did you notice „Hollywood Reporter“ Scott Feinberg is bullish on it too !
Well, it should be value, for sure! Placed a little bet there myself… Doesn’t mean it’ll win, though, so predicting it as your first option, like I’m doing, is probably foolish… but, eh, I don’t care that much! 🙂
Yeah, that’s the case in most categories where that’s happened… 🙁
“I’m bummed I have not yet been able to see the shorts yet (they are one of my favorite parts of the season)”
Same for me. 🙂 I saw all of the animated ones on Youtube and elsewhere online, and three of the documentary shorts on Netflix/Youtube. Couldn’t find any of the live action shorts. I’d be most excited to see The Silent Child, the one I’m predicting, based on the trailers, and The Eleven O’Clock, which is my first alternate. DeKalb sounds very interesting as well. And My Nephew Emmett looks bleak, but strong. I don’t think it’s winning, but it might be the best one, judging by the trailer. Can’t be sure, though.
Not sure this reply got posted, so here it is again (if it did, just ignore this):
Exactly. The child factor really does seem to be a thing in that category – it’s part of why I have The Silent Child. 🙂 That and the fact that it’s top 3 shortest (those seem to win almost all of the time) and I liked the trailer more than the others…
I’ve underestimated the animals factor more than once in animation. Probably doing the same this year with Garden Party, though the animals (which, like you say, in this case, aren’t even that cute) are at least counterbalanced there by the disgusting images at the end, and the lack of any actual story or message. But it’ll probably still win, somehow. Because it can…
I didn’t even hate Dear Basketball, I just didn’t see why it would ever win, apart from its featuring a well-known personality and being so artsy-looking. Those might be enough of a reason. But at least one of those 14 people vulture.com interviewed did say they weren’t voting for Kobe due to the controversy, so maybe there’s hope… My absolute favorite (which I liked even more than LOU) was Revolting Rhymes Part One, but I just can’t see that winning. I’d be happy to be wrong. 🙂 It does have animals, albeit anthropomorphic ones, so who knows?!
“Ugh, Sunday needs to hurry up and put all of us out of our misery!”
Indeed!… 🙂
Ce fac Claudiu ? – You too – And the Doc Short OSCAR goes to “Heaven Is a Traffic Jam” at odds of 9/1. The winner takes it all – Yeap !
I’m bummed I have not yet been able to see the shorts yet (they are one of my favorite parts of the season), so cannot comment, but I average 2/3 as well. Gotta say though… although I am usually all for democratization, I feel like the quality/interest factor re: shorts winners have taken a decrease since the vote was opened to general membership. As in, the most intriguing or innovative used to have the advantage, while the most easily accessible wins now. Just me?
OMG, me too lol. I changed Sing at the last moment last year because of the child factor and for animation it seems like cute animals win. I don’t know what to do for the short animation category. Garden Party has the best looking animation and it’s creative, but frogs gross me out and they are not cute. I didn’t like Dear Basketball at all. It does have low ratings. I found the short to be full of vanity and then there’s the controversy about Kobe’s past, but that happened a long time ago. California seems to like him though (LA factor) lol, so maybe the short will win. Lou seems like a safe pic. I originally had Lou in 1st, then switched to Dear Basketball and then switched again to Garden Party. I’m probably going to switch again lol. Hrrrrm…Negative Space might take it. It has high ratings on Letterboxd. What to do, what to do! Ugh, Sunday needs to hurry up and put all of us out of our misery!
The five years I’ve been predicting the shorts, my average is exactly 2/3. Last year is also the only one in which I got all three right, same as yourself. (Changed to Sing at the last minute.) It seems animated short is the one I struggle with the most… I missed Mr Hublot, Feast and Bear Story, three years in a row. (All of which, of course, I had as my main alternates to what I predicted – the latter I even used in one of the contests I entered; I do that a lot, use different versions of my predictions in different contests, but I only count my official predictions for my “score”.) This year I have LOU, and I’m sticking with it, I’m pretty sure, so one should probably be predicting Dear Basketball instead, as that’s my (only) alternate. 🙂
Yeah, true lol. Darn pesky short films get me every time lol … except for last year I got them all correct.
The only things I’d be shocked to see win out of all of the shorts are Watu Wote and Negative Space. I just don’t see it happening for either of those, they don’t fit any patterns. Now watch them both win!… 🙂
Yes, Heroin (e) is good too. I have it in 3rd place. I just feel like Heaven Is a Traffic Jam stood out more. It’s got the L.A. factor story which will resonate with the voters. I hope it prevails at the Oscars. I also think Delkab Elementary will win. The two hot topics since the school shooting happened: gun control and mental illness, so I will go with those two shorts.
Heroin(e) has a pretty powerful subject matter too… The bookies think that is second favorite, and give Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 8 to 1 odds to win, which is troubling. But, yeah, I also think it’s either that or Edith+Eddie…
Yeah, I saw – a majority is still predicting it, despite BAFTA and other stats… Interesting! I disagree pretty strongly, but I’ll be very happy to be wrong on this one. 🙂
Yes, according to predictions I’ve been reading…
Yeah, I have peeled the layers of Get Out (as other readers here may have seen in an earlier thread) and I found it to be a rotten mess. As it is an unsuccessful allegory, I actually like it better if I think of it as an insubstantial comedy-horror romp.
According to pundits? Maybe. According to the stats, I very much doubt it. (I’ll be looking more closely into that soon, possibly today.)
Well, I don’t think either can really win, beyond sheer randomness, but Lady Bird certainly has better chances than CMBYN, if you ask me.
So, yeah, we were just expressing our opinions – obviously, we don’t have any way to back it up. 🙂
I don’t think any assumption about what voters like or not is ever safe, unless one has talked to at least 100 of them or so, and they overwhelmingly liked/didn’t like the movie/person in question…
Buscemi would be a great over-due actor to get some recognition for the next Oscars. Literally everyone like him.
Yeah Twitter outrage doesn’t equal Academy votes! The politicizing of movies has become sickening. Movie buffs use to like or love movies with varying degrees. Now like their politics, it’s love or hate, no common ground or a better word, common sense.
I thought he was divine and being overlooked for sure!
If Jonah Hill’s acting was good enough to make a romance with Armie Hammer seem credible, that would be great. Otherwise, there’s no point. This is like asking if Roman Holiday (or Breakfast at Tiffany) fans could swap Audrey Hepburn with Melissa McCarthy without making any difference. It depends on her acting abilities.
Hardly any love for Richard Jenkins huh? Very compelling character.
J. K. Simmons worked with half of the Academy. They knew him.
It’s annoying when you have to explain something back to the person that said it. ‘Every person from every walk of life loves this film’. Simply pointing out you’re flat out wrong.
Yet for some reason it’s been a complete non-entity in other precursor categories. Honestly I am surprised.
I was thinking of drawing them out by asking “if you changed nothing in the script or locale, but instead of pale waif Timothée you had Superbad era Jonah Hill, would you guys have cared as much?”
Offer to mail them some peaches…
God I freaking hope so, he’s had a bad run since Twelve Monkeys
That’s a fascinating stat!
Critical acclaim is only one part though. The campaigning is just as important- look at Janney and Metcalf. To my mind Janney has basically charmed/schmoozed her way into an Oscar.
There was a reluctance this year for public smear campaigns, which is a good thing. Who knows what’s going on behind closed doors.
There have been 20 actors who won both NYFCF and LAFCA. Not one has failed to get an Oscar nom; thankfully the streak was not broken.
Of those 20, 13 went on to win.
Let’s see the reception to “The Man who Killed Don Quixote”, which looks awesome in advance.
I don’t know what you are on about. I have “Get Out” in third place, but it could win BOS and it looks likely that it will so that opens the potential for an upset for either The Shape or itself. BOS is so uncertain that it opens that possibility. Whether you want to accept that or not is up to you but that is a real possibility.
Still Get Out > Spotlight and both are important films on important subject matters
a way of quantify… right now it directly feels that 3B is the frontrunner and safest bet. Get Out seems to be the only contender with a strong chance to pull off an upset (that’s why almost 1/3), with Shape of Water having a minimal but significative chance yet. 60-30-9-1% for anything else. Not an exact science but a way to express mathematically my thougths.
This is such rubbish. Get out has not won what Spotlight won.
Why is BOS “very uncertain”? 3B beat GO at BAFTA – with actual AMPAS voters.
Yes, but it doesn’t change the fact that BOS is still very uncertain and thus BP too.
Oh, you mean in their private life? I thought you meant careers after Python.
I don’t love the movie, so preach. I liked it less the second time because was convinced I missed something. But we critics are a very small minority. Just look at metacritic, rotten tomatoes and imdb for proof. It won Toronto and the Globe for a reason, too.
I will remind that McDonagh hit every other major precursor. He miss was not obvious by any stretch of the imagination. He only missed BD. He’s film is bad and many of the critics of Three Bullshit blame the screenplay far more than direction and yet it’s won screenplay at GG and BAFTA.
3B won SAG and BAFTA. Very difficult to beat those odds, especially when GO won WGA where 3B was not eligible.
I would say there was no standout direction. It’s obviously a writer in charge and he let’s a lot of things slip to allow the writing and acting take the lead. Most directors wouldn’t let half of what McDonagh allowed happen happen. It’s as much a creative choice as Birdman’s.
I see “Get Out” winning BOS and that will set up potential upset and The Shape will probably win BP. But it could also be “Get Out” since screenplay goes with BP. Three Bullshit is very marginal favourite, if it indeed it is. There’s HUGE uncertainty in the outcome of BP because of BOS.
No, it has to win BOS only to win BP. “Spotlight” won BP with BOS only. It can be done. BD belongs to Del Toro and he isn’t losing. Only four men have ever lost BD after winning DGA(when eligible for BD, of course). Del Toro swept the season and there isn’t even a challenger.
You made it seem like there was no direction just like people would say there’s no editing on “Birdman” because the film doesn’t have transition from scene to scene like in all other movies and the director has to move the camera to each scene. There is a clear difference in how the two films work. You might able to say Birdman” didn’t get editing because there was no editing, but you cannot say Three Bullshit didn’t get BD because there was no directing. Do you see the difference?
True. I remember. But expectations aren’t data. The directors branch and the guild both said “Great work.” The Fincher support in spite of data that year made no sense, like the Get Out support this year.
I love to see that! 🙂 I really thought it was just going to be me.
Ok. You win. Just to clarify: I respect the intelligence of many Americans, including most of the people in this forum. I reckon most posters here are smarter than me.
Tambor ironically has been photoshopped out of the promotional poster
Ooohhh….”some dumb American”? Wicked put down. I’ve forgotten more this morning than you’ve learned in your whole life.
Yeah, I know, I feel kind of GUILTY that i didn’t love the movie lol, like i should have my gay card taken away. I was looking forward to it immensely. And everyone i know just loved it — it set them swooning. But it just didn’t do that for me. (The movie that made me swoon this year was TSOW.) Though as i say, i did like it a bit more on a second viewing. But I have much more to say.
That’s great, but this probably isn’t the place for that, as it would be way off-topic. I have noticed you proudly state before that you are gay and you don’t love CMBYN. Good for you. I have to point out though that you don’t represent gay film critics. This film swept the GALECA critic awards. But you carry on being individual and different, that’s cool.
I saw it twice, and didn’t love it, though i liked it a bit more the second time than the first. I’m happy to have a serious, non-hateful, non-insulting, non-name-calling, non-glib remarks, adult conversation about it.
It was the most noticeable thing about your post because it was in block capitals. Why would I be annoyed that some dumb American doesn’t know any French? That makes no sense.
How wickedly passive aggressive, your concern is duly noted
You might have a chance of pissing them off if they actually valued your opinion.
It clearly annoyed you since you mentioned you had seen me do it before. So mission accomplished.
Everyone seems to love that short.
The whole film strikes me as rather too arch for Oscar tastes in multiple categories. But I’d love to be surprised.
Still sticking with Get Out for now. Of course, 3B has the odds. But I don’t care. It’s boring to predict the frontrunner in every category, and i don’t care if i get 18/24 or 19/24 on the Oscar ballot. I don’t trust anyone who doesn’t stick their neck out on one of the above the line awards 🙂
But they have – more often than not. Recent winners like Casey Affleck, Mahershala Ali, Brie Larson, JK Simmons, Patricia Arquette, Lupita Nyongo, Jared Leto were not big enough movie stars on their own if they hadn’t been championed by the critics.
LOL. Only other nom: Best Sound.
What, you think multiplying the Es will tick off his fans? I don’t think it will annoy a single one of his fans. It just makes you look like a dork yourself, as I said.
The Woody film: *yawn*
I would actually like to have a serious discussion about CMBYN with someone who has seen it and disliked it, but clearly that’s not you. Oh well, never mind.
Cleese had multiple divorces that wiped him out. Idle is considered a joke, and Gilliam has been legendarily unlucky
What about Cleese? I think he’s done alright. Eric Idle too, I think. Tery Guilliame has done alright too.
Fully agreed. I wish the Academy would listen to the critics, rather than reflect industry popularity. But, I accept that is how it is.
probably forgotten when voting for SAG starts… also the Ensemble is huge and Tambor is only one of the members
You know I do that just to tick off the stanners, don’t you?
And as for the Woody film, obviously someone cared or the film wouldn’t have been funded to begin with. Perhaps the worldly and sort of French Timothée could have actually read up on how Allen was never charged despite two police investigations and thought about that a little before flapping his gums. Either way, homebody better lead a letter perfect life moving forward since he chose to occupy that moral high ground.
Could Tambor be detrimental though, given all the recent revelations?
You sound like a dork when you multiply the Es on his name. I’ve seen you do that before. Timothee is a perfectly normal French name, just like Champs Elysees or Musee d’Orsay, if you know locations in Paris.
It’s not just legal consent in Italy and all other major Western countries, it’s also legal consent in about 40 US states. Some Americans are too dumb to know their own laws, I realise that.
I’ve told you this before: *Nobody* cares about the film you are talking about on this site, nor on any other site except Jeff Wells’ one. Get a clue yourself. He actually got positive press in most places for that
Voting to give an 89-year-old writer his first win is quite a conservative vote, actually. As for the nod for Chalamet, I am not overawed by that either. They would look ridiculous if they failed to give a nod to the winner of NY, LA, London, Chicago and a dozen other critics’ circle awards. The question is why this actor is not winning, or at least close to winning. The answers don’t make the Academy look impressive.
I give the film credit for its box office success. Does it look like a film that costs five million dollars? I’d say so. Doesn’t take anything away from it though.
Box office for recent Picture winners has hardly been a factor, though.
Was it nominated for costumes because Steve MCQueen in that turtle neck and blazer alone was worthy of a nomination.