It’s the last day of voting. Here is your chance to ask for the thing you’ve always wanted for Oscar Sunday. Any particular requests? I’ll start:
Dear Oscar, hear my plea — Garden Party is a great animated short. Be sure to watch it before you vote!
Dear Oscar: Hear My Plea!
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
Should’ve been retitled: Brutally Ignorant. I stopped reading after 2 paragraphs.
Dear Oscar – Watch Sally Hawkins in TSOW and then watch Frances McDormand in 3Bills. We all love Frances, but isn’t this award for best actress in films released in 2017? Please vote for Sally Hawkins.
Dear Oscar – It is time for Roger Deakins And VFX for War of the planet of the apes.
Very interesting. Took me a while to reply with this new system. In a way, we’re closer together than i thought. I don’t “care” about awards in a very major sense. I know what movies i like and don’t like, and no award affects that at all. But I still would like the movies i love to get the awards, and i don’t like to see movies i don’t like get awards. But i never lose sleep over any of this — well, maybe when something like Brokeback Mountain loses to Crash, I toss and turn for a night, but not usually. But i follow movie awards for the sheer silly fun of them, and i get agitated while actively watching the Oscars if they don’t go to my preferences.
Like you, I don’t find that most movie awards actually reflect my personal choices. It’s very rare that BP is MY favourite movie of the year, or even my favourite mainstream English-language movie, and it is equally rare that most awards in most categories match my choices. No Country for Old Man was the best picture of its year, but that is rare. And the fact that a film wins BP or that any award goes to anyone does not affect in any way my opinion of the film or person.
Like if this is play does that mean they could take a single episode from any tv show and play it at a festival or in theatres to qualify it for best short? That doesn’t seem right to me.
Isn’t that a bit ridiculous then? Part one isn’t stand alone, it is the first part of a 2 part story… If they want to give it something they should have found an Emmy for it or submitted it for consideration as a feature!
Isn’t that a bit ridiculous then? Part one isn’t stand alone, it is the first part of a 2 part story… If they want to give it something they should have found an Emmy for it or submitted it for consideration as a feature!
“But it seems like you just care about the stats, not about the actual movies themselves, which seems weird to me. It’s almost as if it is irrelevant that this is about movies — it could be about sports, or politics, or anything else.”
I care very much about the movies, but I see that as a separate thing that has little to do with the Oscars. Or at least with the Oscar results. I love what I love, but I never get attached to the idea that that movie needs to win Oscars just because of that. Or even that it should. It’s all subjective, and I can respect other people, like the voters, choosing other things – 100%. I like it when my favorites are nominated, and like it less when they’re not (like The Big Sick this year), but beyond that I don’t care too much. I’ll be far less upset if The Shape of Water wins because it was the weaker movie by far, in my opinion, than because it broke the WGA loss + 1 rule. FAR less upset. Because I don’t think merit has too much to do with what wins in the first place, and I’ve accepted that. Maybe that’s an extreme way of looking at it, I don’t know – seems the most practical, to me. Anyway, it makes Oscar-watching no less fun for me that this is the situation. I mean, maybe it does make it less fun, but I don’t know what the alternative is, because I’ve never experienced it (a world in which only the best win), so it’s basically the same as if there was no alternative. It is what it is, and I enjoy it for that. Very much so. 🙂
“So, if every stat points to BP going to a film you hate, you still want the stat to be preserved rather than the stat being broken but the Oscar going to a film that you love?”
Depends how attached I am to my prediction that year. How important the stats broken would be, how right or wrong in my evaluations/assumptions I would be, etc. 🙂 – so, in a close race, probably yes. Because, again, I don’t actually place any particular value on what wins the Oscar and what doesn’t. It’s a popularity contest, anyway. It goes to the most deserving nominee about as often as it also happens to be the most popular. Doesn’t mean much. I’ll still love what I love, Oscar-winner or not. And so will most people, I imagine. To me, the nominations are actually more important than what wins. Of course, those are subject to the popularity principle as well, unquestionably, but it’s much harder for THE clear best work of the year to get overlooked for even the nomination. (It still happens, but obviously significantly less often.) So, those mean something. I’m not sure in terms of career opportunities, but somehow I suspect they’re not really the deciding factor for anybody’s career going down the drain, or flourishing instead. I could be wrong.
Obviously, I love it INTENSELY when I both get the prediction right and the winner is (in my opinion) also the most deserving of the bunch. But, when that isn’t the case (which is most of the time), I’d rather get the prediction right, because it means there’s order and logic to the world (since I almost exclusively predict with stats – exclusively, for BP and most other categories), and it’s worthwhile trying to solve the puzzle next year, too, whereas if the most deserving wins instead, and the stats fail, well, that’s obviously great, and I’m never too upset then (like when I had The Big Short but Spotlight, the second favorite by my stats interpretation at the time, won – I still look back on that year fondly, because Spotlight was easily my favorite), but in the big scheme of things it means less, and it does less for me personally. Because next time the best won’t win, and what then?! Also, we’ll all be dead in 100 years, I always say… What does it really matter who wins Oscars and who doesn’t? What matters is they had a good life and they enjoyed their time here, and maybe also made other people happy with their work – which winning the Oscar or not has little to do with… And, for me, personally, in order to have a good time, stats have to stay strong, and exceptions scarce, so that’s what I root for more than anything else. 🙂 If it was life or death, if the winners were hailed and the losers were thrown to the lions (or something less drastic than that), then, obviously, I’d think differently. But I like to think modern man is smarter than to think if somebody won the Oscar, that makes them better than the people they beat.
“But it seems like you just care about the stats, not about the actual movies themselves, which seems weird to me. It’s almost as if it is irrelevant that this is about movies — it could be about sports, or politics, or anything else.”
I care very much about the movies, but I see that as a separate thing that has little to do with the Oscars. Or at least with the Oscar results. I love what I love, but I never get attached to the idea that that movie needs to win Oscars just because of that. Or even that it should. It’s all subjective, and I can respect other people, like the voters, choosing other things – 100%. I like it when my favorites are nominated, and like it less when they’re not (like The Big Sick this year), but beyond that I don’t care too much. I’ll be far less upset if The Shape of Water wins because it was the weaker movie by far, in my opinion, than because it broke the WGA loss + 1 rule. FAR less upset. Because I don’t think merit has too much to do with what wins in the first place, and I’ve accepted that. Maybe that’s an extreme way of looking at it, I don’t know – seems the most practical, to me. Anyway, it makes Oscar-watching no less fun for me that this is the situation. I mean, maybe it does make it less fun, but I don’t know what the alternative is, because I’ve never experienced it (a world in which only the best win), so it’s basically the same as if there was no alternative. It is what it is, and I enjoy it for that. Very much so. 🙂
“So, if every stat points to BP going to a film you hate, you still want the stat to be preserved rather than the stat being broken but the Oscar going to a film that you love?”
Depends how attached I am to my prediction that year. How important the stats broken would be, how right or wrong in my evaluations/assumptions I would be, etc. 🙂 – so, in a close race, probably yes. Because, again, I don’t actually place any particular value on what wins the Oscar and what doesn’t. It’s a popularity contest, anyway. It goes to the most deserving nominee about as often as it also happens to be the most popular. Doesn’t mean much. I’ll still love what I love, Oscar-winner or not. And so will most people, I imagine. To me, the nominations are actually more important than what wins. Of course, those are subject to the popularity principle as well, unquestionably, but it’s much harder for THE clear best work of the year to get overlooked for even the nomination. (It still happens, but obviously significantly less often.) So, those mean something. I’m not sure in terms of career opportunities, but somehow I suspect they’re not really the deciding factor for anybody’s career going down the drain, or flourishing instead. I could be wrong.
Obviously, I love it INTENSELY when I both get the prediction right and the winner is (in my opinion) also the most deserving of the bunch. But, when that isn’t the case (which is most of the time), I’d rather get the prediction right, because it means there’s order and logic to the world (since I almost exclusively predict with stats – exclusively, for BP and most other categories), and it’s worthwhile trying to solve the puzzle next year, too, whereas if the most deserving wins instead, and the stats fail, well, that’s obviously great, and I’m never too upset then (like when I had The Big Short but Spotlight, the second favorite by my stats interpretation at the time, won – I still look back on that year fondly, because Spotlight was easily my favorite), but in the big scheme of things it means less, and it does less for me personally. Because next time the best won’t win, and what then?! Also, we’ll all be dead in 100 years, I always say… What does it really matter who wins Oscars and who doesn’t? What matters is they had a good life and they enjoyed their time here, and maybe also made other people happy with their work – which winning the Oscar or not has little to do with… And, for me, personally, in order to have a good time, stats have to stay strong, and exceptions scarce, so that’s what I root for more than anything else. 🙂 If it was life or death, if the winners were hailed and the losers were thrown to the lions (or something less drastic than that), then, obviously, I’d think differently. But I like to think modern man is smarter than to think if somebody won the Oscar, that makes them better than the people they beat.
At least he saw all of the movies on the ballot.
OK i see. That is cool. But it seems like you just care about the stats, not about the actual movies themselves, which seems weird to me. I’m here because i love movies, and my love for movies leads to a fun affection for the awards. I wouldn’t be interested in the awards if I didn’t love movies.
I want the best in each category to win, that’s all. I don’t mean that arrogantly, like i am some purist, but i honestly just want the winner to be the film that i think actually deserves to win. Obviously, that means the film that I, subjectively, feel is the best. I couldn’t care less whether the precursors that normally predict that are in line with it. If every stat has the BP going to a certain film, and that stat is broken, I’m thrilled with that result if in my opinion the ultimate winner deserved it more.
I think one of the reasons that people on here cannot necessarily just follow the stats is that they care about the movies so deeply. I genuinely think there were three great films nominated this year, and several other very good ones, before we get to Three Billboards. So while, logically, I can accept that 3B is the stats frontrunner, emotionally I don’t want it to win and I want a better film to win, stats be damned.
So, out of curiosity, if there’s a film you hate that is nominated for BP, and another film you love that is also nominated, and the film you hate won SAG ensemble, the PGA, the DGA, and the Golden Globe, which film would you want to win?
(p.s. I don’t mean any of this hostilely. I’m genuinely enjoying learning about your perspective.)
OK i see. That is cool. But it seems like you just care about the stats, not about the actual movies themselves, which seems weird to me.
I want the best in each category to win, that’s all. I don’t mean that arrogantly, like i am some purist, but i honestly just want the winner to deserve to win. Obviously, that means the film that I, subjectively, feel is the best. I couldn’t care less whether the precursors that normally predict that are in line with it. If every stat has the BP going to a certain film, and that stat is broken, I’m fine with that if in my opinion the ultimate winner deserved it more.
If every stat points to BP going to a film you hate, you still want the stat to be preserved rather than the stat being broken but the Oscar going to a film that you love?
“Why do you want your stats protected? Isn’t every broken stat just a new stat, making things more complicated and more fun?”
You don’t understand: I want the thing that always happens to keep happening – for the smallest amount of stats to be broken. That way, there is an actual, single solution to the puzzle every year. One correct answer: the movie that breaks the fewest/least important stats. Otherwise it’s just chaos and anything can happen, any of the 2-3 stats-valid movies can win. I don’t want that. I can find that anywhere in life. Unpredictability is the norm. Its ultimate predictability is what makes the Oscar race special. Plenty of fun figuring out close races like this one… Especially if we get them as often as we have been. Why would I want to then have that process of figuring out what the stats favorite is turn out to be in vain, and for the solution to be wrong? Again, if I want that, I can just try to predict sports instead. Or play poker. Unpredictability is worth nothing to me. It says nothing interesting about the world, and it’s also not inherently fun. But solving puzzles is. Logic is. History is. And so on…
“You seriously want every Oscar year to predictably fall in line with your existing stats?”
Just BP. And again, in the sense of the above, not in the sense that no stat should break.
“Why do you want your stats protected? Isn’t every broken stat just a new stat, making things more complicated and more fun?”
You don’t understand: I want the thing that always happens to keep happening – for the smallest amount of stats to be broken. That way, there is an actual, single solution to the puzzle every year. One correct answer: the movie that breaks the fewest/least important stats. Otherwise it’s just chaos and anything can happen, any of the 2-3 stats-valid movies can win. I don’t want that. I can find that anywhere in life. Unpredictability is the norm. Its ultimate predictability is what makes the Oscar race special. Plenty of fun figuring out close races like this one… Especially if we get them as often as we have been. Why would I want to then have that process of figuring out what the stats favorite is turn out to be in vain, and for the solution to be wrong? Again, if I want that, I can just try to predict sports instead. Or play poker. Unpredictability is worth nothing to me. It says nothing interesting about the world, and it’s also not inherently fun. But solving puzzles is. Logic is. History is. And so on…
“You seriously want every Oscar year to predictably fall in line with your existing stats?”
Just BP. And again, in the sense of the above, not in the sense that no stat should break.
Should’ve been retitled: Brutally Ignorant. I stopped reading after 2 paragraphs.
I couldn’t agree more with MrScreenAddict and Toots. It’s also time for the Academy to recognize its sexist and ageist biases. For about 90 years, it’s been OK to shower young women in their early and mid-20s with Oscar wins and nominations, but ignore the young men in the same age range. Marlee Martin won her Academy Award at 21, and Jennifer Lawrence and Janet Gaynor, at 22, but Timothee Chalamet, also 22, is too young to win and needs to wait? Idiotic.
That first one was so bad. Casual homophobia, transphobia and misogyny. Then he has the nerve to call himself progressive. Also like he literally blatantly disregards any even allegation of abuse against Gary Oldman. Even if it’s not true he literally states he doesn’t care if he beat his wife he’d still vote for him. Nasty honestly.
That first one was so bad. Casual homophobia, transphobia and misogyny. Then he has the nerve to call himself progressive. Also like he literally blatantly disregards any even allegation of abuse against Gary Oldman. Even if it’s not true he literally states he doesn’t care if he beat his wife he’d still vote for him. Nasty honestly.
Yeah, of course, one never knows. It’s true. But this does seem a bit like taking even Murphy’s Law to the extreme… 🙂 That’s how much of a lock del Toro is.
“yet given that stats said ‘yes, the UK will stay in the EU and Hillary Clinton will be the next US president’, I’m a tad cynical.”
I don’t think they said that with 95% plus accuracy, though, as in this case. (And that’s a conservative number.) Did they?
A kindred spirit!… 🙂 Don’t see many of you around here. (I’m sure there are one or two others, but they just don’t express their rooting for the stats as often/loudly as I do.) And you put it beautifully! The Oscars are an oasis of reason in a world gone mad… Even if they don’t often pick what we like the most. At least they pick consistently…
“such as how few votes Shape seems to be picking up from other movies on a preferential ballot – this is not the first time I have seen that”
Cool! It’s good to know it’s not singular to my simulation.
Yeah, I’m on the pessimistic side too, and Shape winning would just be very, very unpleasant for me, not just because I didn’t like the movie much. (A rewatch is in the works, by the way.) The stats, and so on… So my tendency right now, in the days just before Oscar, will be to think it’s somehow winning, inevitably, no matter what reason says. Therefore, like I said elsewhere, I’m not to be trusted in this period! 🙂 There’s just too much to lose for me if Shape wins. I have to get ready for that eventuality somehow… But, of course, my prediction is and will remain Three Billboards.
Wow, you’re absolutely right! 22/72 ballots had these two one right after the other. That’s huge! And they were close enough on most other ballots, as well… Makes sense – they should appeal to the same kind of people, those with very classical sensibilities. That and other things. Nicely spotted! Get Out was right next to one of these two 26 times (it was usually Phantom Thread), but that’s probably low by comparison, given that it should have at least double the chances of that (since first and last, which Get Out was less often than them, is only next to one other movie) than the two of them had of being right next to each other…
Thanks for the comment. I ask as it is all I want this round of Oscars. Given a belief in ‘Murphy’s Law’, I refuse to believe that this is going to happen until I see the results on BBC News on Monday morning and I see that statue in Del Toro’s hands.
I know that this is a ‘silly’ thing in the great scheme of things yet given that stats said ‘yes, the UK will stay in the EU and Hillary Clinton will be the next US president’, I’m a tad cynical. Especially with those ‘plagiarism’ accusations roiling around. If it doesn’t affect and he wins – awesome! So asking can’t hurt but it makes me happier.
Yes, thank you— the genre thing makes a lot of sense. I know Lady Bird went out prior to Get Out, but none of its votes went to GO which perhaps indicates those movies aren’t as tied as the media narrative of Peele & Gerwig as a binary (especially for the younger voters) would have us believe.
“Tiebreaker on CMBYN vs Three Billboards is whoever got more 1st round votes.”
Like I said, that leads to the same result as what I did.
“Can I ask: who is the winner if you eliminate Phantom Thread and Call Me By Your Name in round 1?”
I was going to do that, but then I saw that Three Billboards had 14 votes and The Shape of Water, the next in line, had 9, so I figured it was moot… I counted now to see which of these two was ranked higher on most ballots. Overall, it’s 40-32 in favor of Three Billboards, indeed, so that would have won, most probably (another movie might have, I suppose, but it seems very unlikely), but that’s mostly due to the IMDb votes (19-7). But, even based on votes from Awards Daily alone, where Three Billboards gets so much hate, it’s still only 25-21 in favor of The Shape of Water, by my count…
Kind of wasting that one, aren’t we?! 🙂 No plea for or against del Toro can change the outcome of that race…