Predictions Friday — Fear and Panic in Oscartown

Donald Trump has not only upended American culture, but also something as seemingly meaningless as the Oscar race. When you think about the “backlash” we saw with La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and now, Green Book, it makes more sense when you place it in context in the era of Trump.

During most of the time when Twitter and Facebook rose to prominence, Barack Obama was in power. His message and persona meshed nicely with social media and is about as aligned to the American Left’s ideals of political progressivism as anyone can imagine. Obama was and remains to the left, and thus, to the film and Oscar community, a saint. When Trump took over from Obama, it set into motion a cycle of fear and panic among America’s artists and cultural guardians and those of us who hold such lofty ideals things dear. Everything we most feared, everything we didn’t want to be, suddenly loomed large, as an extremist conservatism took charge of all three branches of government. Treasured rights and values were being stripped away faster and faster. Whereas our voices on the left had felt united and powerful for eight years, now they feel divided and powerless. Obama gave power to the powerless, symbolically, at least. Did the strides made solve all of the problems of racism? Of course not. By all accounts it did not. Change like that isn’t going to happen overnight. It will take decades, maybe centuries.

Trump, in turn, has emboldened people who felt powerless during Obama’s reign. White nationalists, white supremacists, and even people who don’t see themselves as racists but simply want America to return to the way it was before Obama took power and shook apart some of their long-held sense of security, however unfair their security was to others. Change — and its flipside, uncertainty — had come too quickly for them.

Bringing this upheaval to our concerns in the movie industry, why are some films attacked and others left alone? In large part it might boil down to how white people are afraid of being called out for being wrongheaded or insensitive. And since the majority of voters in the awards race remain white, the mere whiff of off-key racism can topple a film’s trajectory. While this has always been true — The Help was hit with charges of an outdated racial slant (fairly) derailing bids for Best Actress for Viola Davis and a Best Director nomination for Tate Taylor  — it is especially true now.

Meanwhile, films that star white people and make respectable efforts towards inclusivity find a way to be immune to these questions. A Star Is Born centers around the lives of white people, but the supporting characters are diverse in every way the newly woke village requires. Thus, it’s mostly immune (although a somewhat less effective effort didn’t really help The Big Short). Period films can mostly escape the accusations since no one expects to see modern ideals of inclusion forced upon historical reality. First Man, on the other hand, did get hit by white film critics.

To that end — Houston, we have a problem. Or maybe we don’t have a problem. Maybe this has all gone as planned, with the only two movies deemed non-problematic and thus worthy of the Oscar seal of approval are still Roma and A Star Is Born. I might add If Beale Street Could Talk, which is flying under the radar but certainly appears to be a film that “everyone loves.”

And it isn’t just the fear and panic of potentially being accused of racism; it’s also the anxiety and eternal mystery of the box office. Why aren’t the usual sort of Oscar movies making the kind of money people thought they would? Widows is the latest slip in expectations that surprised people, but Green Book (in limited release) is too, and of course, First Man. What will that mean when voters calculate their year-end assessments? Who knows. One thing for sure, as it approaches $200 million, this is not something A Star Is Born needs to worry about. Since its measure of success is detached from ticket sales, Roma will not need rake in big bucks in theaters to earn its place; the money it makes for Netflix is baked into a different business model.

Coming out of Telluride, Gold Derby’s Joyce Eng had First Man at number one for the big win. Now, as of November 19, she has it at number 10, She beleives Mary Poppins Returns has a better chance of getting a Best Picture nomination than First Man. Imagine looking back five years hence and seeing that Damien Chazelle’s film, easily one of the year’s best, didn’t make it in. The only reason? Box office.

What I truly think is that, right now, more than ever, nobody knows anything. We make our calls based on what we know, what has come before, and how we predict “things will go.” But I can tell you with 100% certainty we just don’t know anymore. We don’t know if Black Panther will be the one Marvel superhero movie that lands in the top categories and makes Oscar history. Maybe it will. If any superhero movie can, then it can. We don’t know how severely First Man’s box office returns will impact perception of the film.

I don’t follow Patrick Goldstein on Twitter, though I recently saw a tweet wherein he mocked those of us who believe First Man’s box office was damaged by attacks from the right. I know from personal experience that it was. I have Republican friends on Facebook — yes, I know, shocking — and all of them were taking part in a soft boycott of the film. (Though a handful told me privately they would see it regardless because I told them it was good.) Yet Goldstein and many others dismissed that idea — probably they don’t want to concede that forces on the right have that much power. But a movie about the moon landing should have been a movie every proud American would want to see, regardless of politics. Until it was turned into a partisan issue by flag fetishists.

A Star Is Born is right now the favorite to win not only because it’s become a cultural phenomenon but it’s seemingly shitstorm proof. At least for now it is. Can it win on the first round of voting? You will know if Bradley Cooper wins the DGA. If he does, it will easily win Best Picture and it will have no competition.

Would Green Book have been able to win without the shitstorm that hit? Hard to say. One can never predict how the preferential ballot will go, how the new members will vote, what the actors will do and what newly White Woke Oscar faction will do. It’s all unpredictable, my friends. As a so-called “expert,” I can tell you that anyone who gets it right this year will simply be guessing lucky.

Somewhere, I really believe, is a better way forward for art and artists who can find a way to work together in unity rather than pointing fingers, undermining great work, and falling into the death spiral of mass hysteria, fear and panic. But that’s just me and my hope, a thing with feathers. I’d say go ahead and call me a racist for defending movies I admire, but that already happened last year.

There isn’t really another way to wade through this year’s Oscar race without admitting that these questions will have had an impact on Green Book’s chances. On the upside, at least it’s happening now and not right before the final ballots are mailed out to 7000 wary people who choose Best Picture.

Best Picture Predictions

Locked
1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. The Favourite

Hovering:
5. Green Book
6. First Man
7. First Reformed
8. BlackKklansman
9. Vice
9. Widows
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me
11. Black Panther
12. Mary Poppins Returns

Long shots but hope springs eternal:
13. Leave No Trace
14. Eighth Grade

Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Hovering:
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Ryan Gosling, First Man
John David Washington, BlacKKKlansman
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther

Best Actress
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Viola Davis, Widows

Hovering:
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Long shots:
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Carey Mulligan, Wildlife
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Charlize Theron, Tully

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

Hovering:
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Steve Carell, Vice
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Michael B. Jordan. Black Panther
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate
Jonathan Pryce, The Wife
Jake Gyllenhaal, Wildlife

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Claire Foy, First Man

Hovering:
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner
Danai Gurira, Black Panther

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Paul Schrader, First Reformed

Hovering:
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Original Screenplay
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
The Favourite
Eighth Grade

Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Can You Ever Forgive Me
First Man
Widows

Editing
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
First Man
Roma
Vice

Cinematography
Roma
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
First Man
The Favourite

Production Design
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
The Favourite
Roma
First Man

Sound Mixing
A Star Is Born
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody

Sound Editing
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody

Costume Design
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody

Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Early Man

Documentary Feature
Won’t You Be My Neighbor+
Three Identical Strangers
RBG
Free Solo
Science Fair

Foreign Language Feature
Roma (Mexico)
Cold War (Poland)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Burning (South Korea)
Shoplifters (Japan)

This is all going to shift as we get the announcements from New York and from the Golden Globes in the coming weeks.