Predictions Friday: Escaping Reality and Tripping the Light Fantastic

A Star Is Born is back. Mary Poppins is back. Box office is back. Popular films are BACK!? With the fear of the dreaded popular film category looming, all around Oscar world there is this idea that there was never really that big of a disconnect between “Oscar bubble” movies and “real people” movies.

Funnily enough, this would be a great year to have that category and it would be very competitive. In such a year, you would have films like Roma, If Beale Street Could Talk, even First Man and Can You Ever Forgive Me, Widows – you know, Oscar movies. Maybe even such movies as Eighth Grade and Leave No Trace. Maybe even BlackKklansman, all in the hunt for Best Picture. Then you would have the popular movies competing for their own category. Popular being movies that are too genre-y for Oscar voters, too derivative to be original enough to crack the Academy’s top five (remember, voters only get five slots for Best Picture) but are such beloved successes with audiences they could be put into their category — these would be Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians, Bohemian Rhapsody, Mission Impossible: Fallout, maybe even Creed II, and perhaps Mary Poppins Returns, once it opens to what will likely be spectacular numbers.

Hovering somewhere in the middle of these two categories would be A Star Is Born, which is popular but also has street cred, and Green Book, which is sort of meant to be a popular movie but is somehow finding itself in the “Oscar movie” category instead, its ultimate fate unknown.

You see, the very notion that there was a disconnect between box office, the public, and the people who vote on awards — with films being decided mostly at festivals, parties and on screener-TV — has rocked the world of Oscar prognosticating so that you see headlines like this:

We’re all barreling towards this imaginary happy ending — that the Oscars really are what they used to be way back when, before the preferential ballot, before the industry changed so dramatically, before superhero movies took over, when stars could still drive box office and the Oscars, when glamour reigned, when the ratings were high!

But keep in mind these two misunderstood aspects of the Best Picture race:

1: The idea that voters have ten choices for Best Picture. Or nine. Nope. They get five. Each of them — writers, directors, actors, sound people, costume designers — get five choices. Their number one choice joins a pile of other number one movies until they find that magic number they need to earn a nomination. Marshall Flores has estimated this number to be around 300. That means roughly 300 people in the Academy have to have a movie like Black Panther AND a movie like Mary Poppins Returns AND a movie like A Star Is Born at number one, and if not number one, then number two.

2: The new voters are going to really make a huge difference in how the voting goes down. Mostly false, but a tiny bit true. There aren’t enough of them. 70% of the Academy is still white and male. They are trying to shift those numbers, but some categories are still locked in with almost entirely white male nominees year after year. Now, the color of the new members matters a lot less than the new “wokeness” of many of its members. If you’ll notice, people who used to chide those of us who championed diversity way back when are now the wokest of the woke on Twitter. This is also likely true of the majority of Academy members. While I do not believe this will extend itself to women behind the camera, it will most definitely make them more inclined towards a movie like Black Panther than they otherwise might have been.

But the truth is we can’t really know how it will end up and therefore don’t pretend to, never have pretended to, always say might be, take it with a grain of salt, etc. Last year at this time The Shape of Water was not looking good. Shut out at the NBR, no win at the New York Film Critics. Pundits were really down on it. That just shows you how dramatically things can shift. Guillermo del Toro winning Best Director at the Globes was the turning point for The Shape of Water. Remember, Moonlight also wasn’t a frontrunner either, only gaining momentum in the final stretch while La La Land was hit by a backlash.

The race, as I see it, could shift in two competing directions. One — realism: we are feeling the need to connect to gritty realism and truth about humanity. Or two – fantasy. Or maybe a combination of the two. Most likely that.

Best Picture:

1. A Star Is Born — no one seems ready to call any other film to win than this one. A fantasy where a nobody is plucked from the crowd to become a somebody. Seems fitting for a culture ready to escape from reality. On the other hand, its second half is a nightmare. Sure, she becomes famous but at what cost? Ultimately, the film is a tragedy, always has been and remains. Writer cred (Eric Roth + B Coop), Actor/Star backing: Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, and Sam Elliot. SAG/PGA/DGA/WGA

2. Roma — by anyone’s definition a masterpiece. Right now, reading the race, Roma would seem poised to overtake A Star Is Born on a preferential ballot MAYBE. There are a lot of reasons why it won’t. One of the biggest is what the actors (the largest voting body in the Academy) will make of it is still a gigantic question mark. They will decide its fate. Director cred: Alfonso Cuaron is on tap to be the frontrunner for Best Director, plus is a previous winner — one of the “Three Amigos” dominating awards season of late. PGA/DGA/WGA — outside shot for SAG ensemble.

3. If Beale Street Could Talk — Barry Jenkins’ love story from a James Baldwin novel remains among the most beloved. That Regina King has won early awards and is the clear frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress helps the film along. Can this movie be the surprise winner? Maybe. Moonlight had the one win for Mahershala Ali pushing it through the season and ended up landing it a Best Picture win. PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG ensemble possibly. Director cred: Jenkins. Writer cred: Jenkins + James Baldwin. Star/Actor backing: Regina King.

4. First Reformed — a film that was once a fringe maybe now seems quite strong heading into the race. Paul Schrader, who has been writing and directing for over 40 years, is poised to finally land his first Oscar nomination. Shocking for an artist of his influence and stature but here we are. I think the Academy will nominate him not just for writing but for directing and for Best Picture. It’s an easy call to imagine enough people will push the film into contention. Director/Writer cred: holy shit, Paul Schrader. Actor/Star backing: Ethan Hawke. PGA/WGA — good shot for DGA but more likely Oscar.

5. Green Book — it’s still on tap. Even with the recent conversations around the film’s main characters, it has enough of the right stuff to push it into contention, and that’s due to the strong performances of the actors. Exec Producer cred in Octavia Spencer. Actor/Star backing in Viggo Mortensen, Mahershala Ali, and Linda Cardellini. PGA/SAG/WGA – good chance at DGA.

6. The Favourite — this film keeps getting predicted but then missing out where people think it will land, but its place seems to be clearly driven by the strong ensemble at the heart. If Best Picture is decided by actors, it seems like this film should be a strong contender for SAG ensemble. It could also get a DGA nomination, if the film is as popular with voters as it has been with critics and pundits. But it needs to start winning something somewhere. Director cred: Yorgos Lanthimos has built a rep for himself of late. Actor/star backing: Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz, Olivia Colman. PGA/SAG/maybe DGA, maybe WGA if eligible.

7. First Man — When you push back from the Oscar bubble, you will see that it remains one of the year’s truly monumental cinematic achievements, from the space flight sequences alone, to Damien Chazelle capturing a moment in time when America was in turmoil yet there remained a need to pay tribute to a beloved dead president’s dream. Chazelle took the big risk of omitting the flag being placed on the Moon and might have killed the film’s box office success doing so. But there is no denying it was ballsy move. He chose to say something else about that Moon landing, to take us deep into the heart of Neil Armstrong. BADASS. Writer cred: Josh Singer, Director cred: Damien Chazelle. Acting/star cred: Ryan Gosling, Claire Foy. PGA/DGA/WGA – very slim shot at SAG ensemble.

8. BlacKkKlansman — it is looking like a long shot, but it is one I still can’t let go of, mainly because Adam Driver has been prominent in some of the early awards and because Spike Lee is so long overdue. PGA/wish for DGA/Hopefully WGA/maybe SAG.

8. Eighth Grade — it just “feels” like it has buzz and heat. By all rights it should not be included as it’s “too small” of a movie, which is where I had it early on. But little by little, it has seemed to gain esteem and word of mouth. It definitely seems possible. PGA/maybe WGA if eligible.

9. Can You Ever Forgive Me? or Widows — I feel like both have an equal shot. Both had a lot of hype out of festival season. Richard E. Grant won an award from NYFCC. That seems to at least connect one acting win to the former.

10. Black Panther or Mary Poppins Returns — maybe it’s one or the other, maybe it’s both. The actors will decide which of these they prefer. I know one is a superhero movie and one is a sequel to a classic. What I know of the Academy tells me they’re not gonna. Maybe they will. I put it in as a maybe. I can see Ryan Coogler getting a DGA nomination and Black Panther going all the way. I can see both getting PGA nominations. Can either get a WGA nomination? Both will compete hard for crafts like costumes, visual effects, production design. Will either crack the acting categories? As Anne Thompson says, how do you build a Best Picture contender? Branch by branch. She thinks this gives Black Panther the edge. Does it get writing? Directing? Acting? Does Mary Poppins? If so, where?

Contenders
Vice
A Quiet Place
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Leave No Trace
The Rider
The Front Runner

Best Actor:
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed – might he win his first Oscar for acting?
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Contenders:
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling, First Man
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther

Best Actress:
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Viola Davis, Widows
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Contenders:
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Carey Mulligan, Wildlife
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Charlize Theron, Tully
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

Contenders:
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Steve Carrell, Vice
Michael B. Jordan. Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress:
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Amy Adams, Vice
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man
Marina de Tavira, Roma

Contenders:
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner
Danai Gurira, Black Panther

Best Director:
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Contenders:
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Adam McKay, Vice
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

Original Screenplay:
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Eighth Grade, Bo Burnham
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly

Contenders:
Ben Is Back, Peter Hedges
Sorry to Bother You, Boots Riley
Tully, Diablo Cody

Adapted Screenplay:
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins+
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me, Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
First Man, Josh Singer

Contenders:
Widows, Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen
The Front Runner, Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman
Boy Erased, Joel Edgerton
Leave No Trace, Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

Cinematography:
Roma
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
First Man
The Favourite

Contenders:
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Cold War

Editing:
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
First Man
Roma
Green Book

Production Design:
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
The Favourite
Roma
First Man

Sound Mixing:
Mary Poppins Returns
A Star Is Born
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place

Contenders:
Mission Impossible: Fallout
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Avengers: Infinity War
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Deadpool 2

Sound Editing:
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

Costume Design:
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody

Visual Effects:
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
First Man
Annilhilation
Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom

Original Score:
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Widows

Animated Feature:
Incredibles 2
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Early Man

Documentary Feature:
Won’t You Be My Neighbor
Three Identical Strangers
RBG
Free Solo
Minding the Gap

Foreign Language Feature:
Roma (Mexico)
Cold War (Poland)+
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Burning (South Korea)
Shoplifters (Japan)

DISCLAIMER THESE ARE JUST GUESSES AND SHOULD NOT INFLUENCE ANYONE WHEN IT COMES TO DECIDING WHAT TO VOTE FOR. WE OFFER UP THE ONLY THING WE HAVE — OUR BEST GUESS — WARNING: DO NOT TAKE IT AS ANYTHING MORE SERIOUS THAN THAT – A BEST GUESS!

You have read all of the disclaimers. I think we’re in the clear. Good tidings.