DGA Preview — How Popular Is This Race Going to Get?

Don’t forget to enter our DGA contest.

The DGA seems like a mostly easy call this year because somehow we’ve managed to get down to just a handful of films that even have a shot at a Best Picture win. To get that win, a DGA nomination is essential. It’s more important than the SAG ensemble, more important than even a Best Director nomination at the Oscars. The last time no DGA nomination resulted in a Best Picture win was the Ye Aulde Driving Miss Daisy stat wherein Bruce Beresford was somehow shut out of the Globe, the DGA, and the Oscars for Best Director. He was The Man Who Wasn’t There, similar to Bryan Singer for this year’s Bohemian Rhapsody. He’s the Man Who Wasn’t There as everyone knows he has no shot at a nomination, even though his film is clearly one of the most popular films of the year.

It’s a strange year because the best-directed films of the year were conspicuously absent from the PGA’s list, which also omitted all women in a year that was very strong on women. Because women almost always get screwed one way or another. When the Academy went from ten nomination slots for Best Picture to five, women took a hit. Now, when the focus is on “popular” movies, women are also taking a hit. Even though Ava DuVernay’s A Wrinkle in Time made $100 million, it somehow doesn’t qualify as popular. FUNNY HOW THAT WORKS.

In terms of predicting the DGA, it’s important to remember a few basic rules. First, the DGA and the Academy don’t often match 5/5 on Best Director. Sometimes they do, but most of the time they don’t. In the modern era of the expanded ballot, from 2009 up to now, it has been very rare to get a Best Directing nomination in either the DGA or Oscar without a Best Picture nomination. In fact, from 1943–2008 when there were only five Best Picture nominees, you could see which films might have gotten in under the expanded ballot because they had a directing nomination and not a Best Picture nomination. There are the rare exceptions to this rule, of course.

For predicting the DGA, you have to think Best Picture and you have to think about which five right now are the strongest contenders for the win. Barring some major surprise, you’re probably looking at:

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (Globe nom)
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (Globe nom, SAG ensemble)
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (Globe nom, SAG ensemble)
Peter Farrelly, Green Book (Globe nom)
Adam McKay, Vice (Globe nom)

Then you have:

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (SAG ensemble)
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Those are the strongest seven right now. The DGA will further boil things down to five — the five films with the best chance of winning Best Picture.

The DGA also has the “Best First Time Director” category and this year, the favorites seem to be:

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Bo Burhnam, Eighth Grade
Ari Aster, Hereditary

And then a few potentials:

Boots Riley, Sorry to Bother You
Paul Dano, Wildlife
Carlos López Estrada, Blindspotting
Aneesh Chaganty, Searching

Here are our predictions, and the charts to follow.

Best Director:

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman — Sasha Stone, Marshall Flores, Jazz Tangcay, Joey Moser, Jalal Haddad
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther — Stone, Flores, Moser, Haddad
Peter Farrelly, Green Book — Stone, Ryan Adams, Flores, Tangcay
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma — Stone, Adams, Flores, Tangcay, Moser, Haddad
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born — Stone, Adams, Flores, Tangcay, Moser, Haddad
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite — Adams, Tangcay, Moser, Haddad
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War — Adams

Best First-Time Director:

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born — Stone, Flores, Tangcay, Haddad
Ari Aster, Hereditary — Stone, Adams, Flores, Tangcay, Moser, Haddad
Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade — Stone, Adams, Flores, Tangcay, Moser, Haddad
Boots Riley, Sorry to Bother You — Stone, Flores, Adams, Moser
Aneesh Gaganty, Searching — Adams, Haddad
Paul Dano, Wildlife — Moser, Tangcay, Stone
Kay Cannon, Blockers — Flores, Moser
Carlos López Estrada, Blindspotting — Haddad, Tangcay
Jeremiah Zager, We the Animals — Adams

Won DGA | Won Oscar
*film nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars
+film won Best Picture at the Oscars

2017

Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water	Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water+
Jordan Peele, Get Out	Jordan Peele, Get Out*
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk	Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk*
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird	Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird*
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards*	Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread*

2016

Damien Chazelle, La La Land	Damien Chazelle, La La Land*
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchster by the Sea	Kenneth Lonergan, Manchster by the Sea*
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight	Barry Jenkins, Moonlight+
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival	Denis Villeneuve, Arrival*
Garth Davis, Lion*	Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge*

2015

The Revenant, Alejandro G. Iñárritu	The Revenant, Alejandro G. Iñárritu*
The Big Short, Adam McKay	The Big Short, Adam McKay*
Mad Max: Fury Road, George Miller	Mad Max: Fury Road, George Miller*
The Martian, Ridley Scott*	Lenny Abrahamson, Room*
Spotlight, Tom McCarthy	Spotlight, Tom McCarthy+

2014

Richard Linklater, Boyhood	Richard Linklater, Boyhood*
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman	Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman+
Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel	Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel*
Morten Tyldum, Imitation Game	Morten Tyldum, Imitation Game*
Clint Eastwood, American Sniper*	Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

2013

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity	Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity*
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave	Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave+
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips*	Alexander Payne, Nebraska*
David O. Russell, American Hustle	David O. Russell, American Hustle*
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street*	Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street*

2012

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln	Steven Spielberg, Lincoln*
Ang Lee, Life of Pi	Ang Lee, Life of Pi*
Ben Affleck, Argo+	David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook*
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty*	Michael Haneke Amour*
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables*	Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild*

2011

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist	Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist+
Martin Scorsese, Hugo	Martin Scorsese, Hugo*
Alexander Payne, The Descendants	Alexander Payne, The Descendants*
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris	Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris*
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	Terrence Malick, Tree of Life*

2010

Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech	Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech+
David Fincher, The Social Network	David Fincher, The Social Network*
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan	Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan*
David O’Russell, The Fighter	David O’Russell, The Fighter*
Christopher Nolan, Inception*	Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit*

2009

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker	Kathryn Bigelow, Hurt Locker+
Lee Daniels, Precious	Lee Daniels, Precious*
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air	Jason Reitman, Up in the Air*
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds	Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds*
James Cameron, Avatar	James Cameron, Avatar*

2008

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire	Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire+
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon	Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon*
Gus Van Sant, Milk	Gus Van Sant, Milk*
David Fincher, Benjamin Button	David Fincher, Benjamin Button*
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight	Stephen Daldry, The Reader*

2007

Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men	Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men+
Sean Penn, Into the Wild	Jason Reitman, Juno*
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly	Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton	Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton*
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood	Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood*

2006

Stephen Frears, The Queen	Stephen Frears, The Queen*
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel	Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel*
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls	Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima*
Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton, Little Miss Sunshine*	Paul Greengrass, United 93
Martin Scorsese, The Departed	Martin Scorsese, The Departed+

2005

Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain	Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain*
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck	George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck*
Paul Haggis, Crash	Paul Haggis, Crash+
Bennett Miller, Capote	Bennett Miller, Capote*
Steven Spielberg, Munich	Steven Spielberg, Munich*

2004

Alexander Payne, Sideways	Alexander Payne, Sideways*
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator	Martin Scorsese, The Aviator*
Taylor Hackford, Ray	Taylor Hackford, Ray*
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland*	Mike Leigh, Vera Drake
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby	Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby+

2003

Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation	Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation*
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River	Clint Eastwood, Mystic River*
Peter Jackson, ROTK	Peter Jackson, ROTK+
Peter Weir, Master and Commander	Peter Weir, Master and Commander*
Gary Ross, Seabiscuit*	Fernando Merielles, City of God

2002

Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York	Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York*
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings*	Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her
Roman Polanski, The Pianist	Roman Polanski, The Pianist*
Rob Marshall, Chicago	Rob Marshall, Chicago+
Steven Daldry, The Hours	Steven Daldry, The Hours*

2001

Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind	Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind+
Peter Jackson, Fellowship of the Ring	Peter Jackson, Fellowship of the Ring*
Christopher Nolan, Memento	Robert Altman, Gosford Park*
Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down	Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down
Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge*	David Lynch, Mulholland Drive

2000

Cameron Crowe, Almost Famous	Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot*
Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon	Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon*
Ridley Scott, Gladiator	Ridley Scott, Gladiator+
Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich	Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich*
Steven Soderbergh, Traffic	Steven Soderbergh, Traffic*

1999

Frank Darabont, The Green Mile*	Lasse Hallstrom, Cider House Rules*
Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich	Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich
Michael Mann, The Insider	Michael Mann, The Insider*
Sam Mendes, American Beauty	Sam Mendes, American Beauty+
M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense	M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense*

1998

Peter Weir, The Truman Show	Peter Weir, The Truman Show
Terrence Malick, The Thin Red Line	Terrence Malick, The Thin Red Line*
John Madden, Shakespeare in Love	John Madden, Shakespeare in Love+
Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan	Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan*
Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful	Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful*

1997

James L. Brooks, As Good As It Gets*	Peter Cattaneo, The Full Monty*
Steven Spielberg, Amistad	Atom Egoyan, The Sweet Hereafter
Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting	Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting*
James Cameron, Titanic	James Cameron, Titanic+
Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential	Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential*

1996

Cameron Crowe, Jerry Maguire*	Milos Forman, The People vs. Larry Flynt
Joel Coen, Fargo	Joel Coen, Fargo*
Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies	Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies*
Anthony Minghella, The English Patient	Anthony Minghella, The English Patient+
Scott Hicks, Shine	Scott Hicks, Shine*

1995

Mike Figgis, Leaving Las Vegas	Mike Figgis, Leaving Las Vegas
Mel Gibson, Braveheart	Mel Gibson, Braveheart+
Ron Howard, Apollo 13*	Chris Noonan, Babe*
Ang Lee, Sense and Sensibility*	Tim Robbins, Dead Man Walking
Michael Radford, Il Postino	Michael Radford, Il Postino*

1994

Mike Newell, Four Weddings and a Funeral*	Woody Allen, Bullets Over Broadway
Frank Darabont, The Shawshank Redemption*	Krzysztof Kieslowski, Three Colors: Red
Robert Redford, Quiz Show	Robert Redford, Quiz Show*
Quentin Tarantino, Pulp Fiction	Quentin Tarantino, Pulp Fiction*
Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump	Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump+

1993

Andrew Davis, The Fugitive*	Robert Altman, Short Cuts
Jane Campion, The Piano	Jane Campion, The Piano*
James Ivory, The Remains of the Day	James Ivory, The Remains of the Day*
Martin Scorsese, The Age of Innocence	Jim Sheridan, In the Name of the Father*
Steven Spielberg, Schindler’s List	Steven Spielberg, Schindler’s List+

1992

Robert Altman, The Player	Robert Altman, The Player
Rob Reiner, A Few Good Men*	Martin Brest, Scent of a Woman*
Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven	Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven+
James Ivory, Howards End	James Ivory, Howards End*
Neil Jordan, The Crying Game	Neil Jordan, The Crying Game*

1991

Barbra Streisand, The Prince Of Tides*	John Singleton, Boyz N the Hood
Oliver Stone, JFK	Oliver Stone, JFK*
Ridley Scott, Thelma and Louise	Ridley Scott, Thelma and Louise
Barry Levinson, Bugsy	Barry Levinson, Bugsy*
Jonathan Demme, Silence of the Lambs	Jonathan Demme, Silence of the Lambs+

1990

Francis Ford Coppola, The Godfather Part III	Francis Ford Coppola, The Godfather Part III*
Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves	Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves+
Barry Levinson, Avalon	Stephen Frears, The Grifters
Martin Scorsese, GoodFellas	Martin Scorsese, GoodFellas*
Giuseppe Tornatore, Cinema Paradiso	Barbet Schroeder, Reversal of Fortune

Best Director Winners Only

+also won Best Picture
(best picture that didn’t match
director)

2017	Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water	Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water+
2016	Damien Chazelle, La La Land	Damien Chazelle, La La Land*
2015	Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant	Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant*
2014	Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman	Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman+
2013	Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity	Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity*
2012	Ben Affleck, Argo	Ang Lee, Life of Pi (Argo)*
2011	Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist	Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist+
2010	Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech	Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech+
2009	Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker	Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker+
2008	Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire	Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire+
2007	Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country	Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+
2006	Martin Scorsese, The Departed	Martin Scorsese, The Departed+
2005	Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain	Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain (Crash)
2004	Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby	Clint Eastwood, MDB+
2003	Peter Jackson, Return of the King	Peter Jackson, Return of the King+
2002	Rob Marshall, Chicago	Roman Polanski, The Pianist (Chicago)
2001	Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind	Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind+
2000	Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger	Steven Soderbergh, Traffic (Gladiator)
1999	Sam Mendes, American Beauty	Sam Mendes, American Beauty+
1998	Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan	Steven Spielberg (Shakespeare in Love)
1997	Jim Cameron, Titanic	Jim Cameron, Titanic+
1996	Anthony Minghella, English Patient	Anthony Minghella, English Patient+
1995	Ron Howard, Apollo 13	Mel Gibson, Braveheart+
1994	Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump	Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump+
1993	Seven Spielberg, Schindler’s List	Steven Spielberg, Schindler’s List+
1992	Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven	Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven+
1991	Jonathan Demme, Silence of the Lambs	Jonathan Demme, Silence of the Lambs +
1990	Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves	Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves+
1989	Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July	Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July (Driving Miss Daisy – director Beresford not nommed for Oscar or DGA)
1988	Barry Levinson, Rain Man	Barry Levinson, Rain Man+
1987	Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor	Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor+
1986	Oliver Stone, Platoon	Oliver Stone, Platoon+
1985	Steven Spielberg, Color Purple	Sidney Pollack, Out of Africa+
1984:	Milos Forman, Amadeus	Milos Forman, Amadeus+
1983:	James Brooks, Terms of Endearment	James Brooks, Terms of Endearment+
1982:	Richard Attenborough, Gandhi	Richard Attenborough, Gandhi+
1981:	Warren Beatty, Reds	Warren Beatty, Reds (Chariots of Fire)
1980:	Robert Redford, Ordinary People	Robert Redford, Ordinary People+
1979:	Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer	Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer+
1978:	Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter	Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter+
1977:	Woody Allen, Annie Hall	Woody Allen, Annie Hall+
1976:	John G. Avildsen, Rocky	John G. Avildsen, Rocky+
1975:	Milos Forman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest	Milos Forman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest+
1974:	Frances Ford Coppola, Godfather II	Frances Ford Coppola, Godfather II+
1973:	George Roy Hill, The Sting	George Roy Hill+
1972:	Frances Ford Coppola, The Godfather	Bob Fosse, Cabaret(Godfather)
1971:	William Friedkin, The French Connection	William Friedkin, The French Connection+
1970:	Franklin J. Schaffner, Patton	Franklin J. Schaffner , Patton+
1969:	John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy	John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy+
1968:	Anthony Harvey, Lion in Winter	Carol Reed, Oliver+
1967:	Mike Nichols, The Graduate	Mike Nichols, The Graduate (In Heat of the Night)
1966:	Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons	Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons+
1965:	Robert Wise, The Sound of Music	Robert Wise, The Sound of Music+
1964:	George Cukor, My Fair Lady	George Cukor, My Fair Lady+
1963:	Tony Richardson, Tom Jones	Tony Richardson, Tom Jones+
1962:	David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia	David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia+
1961:	Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story	Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story+
1960:	Billy Wilder, The Apartment	Billy Wilder, The Apartment+
1959:	William Wyler, Ben Hur	William Wyler, Ben Hur+
1958:	Vincent Minnelli, Gigi	Vincent Minnelli, Gigi+
1957:	David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai	David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai+
1956:	George Stevens, Giant	George Stevens, Giant (Around the World in 80 Days)
1955:	Delbert Mann, Marty	Delbert Mann, Marty+
1954:	Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront	Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront+
1953:	Fred Zinnemann, From Here to Eternity	Fred Zinnemann, From Here to Eternity+
1952:	John Ford, The Quiet Man	John Ford, The Quiet Man (Greatest Show on Earth)
1951:	George Stevens, A Place in the Sun	George Stevens, A Place in the Sun (An American in Paris)
1950:	Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve	Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve+
1949:	Robert Rossen, All the King’s Men	Joseph L. Mankiewicz, A Letter to Three Wives (All the King’s Men)
1948:	Joseph L. Mankiewicz, A Letter to Three Wives	John Huston, Treasure of the Sierra Madre (Hamlet)