Predictions Friday — Last Looks Before Tuesday’s Ballot Deadline

This grim and fretful Oscar season, which should be much more of a celebration than the fear and panic in the streets it has seemed to wrought. I don’t know much of anything, but I know that intense pressure on filmmakers to be “pure” from inception or otherwise be prevented from winning awards is something I’d really like to see left behind in the coming years. No one should have been vetting the filmmakers of Green Book just to hurt the film’s chances. That topic should have never come up because we are talking about whether or not the films themselves are award worthy.

Now that the Academy has kicked out Roman Polanski for something that happened over 40 years ago, that has seemed to send the message that the lives of artists are up for grabs. Without hijacking this into a conversation about Polanski (oh dear god, please no), I’ll just say that we’re not supposed to be in the business of awarding people for having led good lives. In fact, often the best art comes from people who haven’t. We don’t live in a utopia where all we ever talk about and celebrate are the good things we’ve done. We are flawed, all of us. And we’re probably not good from birth. We’re all kinds of bad and over time we learn how to do things that don’t hurt others. If you take away that opportunity for people to learn and grow and change, you’re going to be stuck with some pretty worthless art and the idea of humanity will be essentially worthless. A “Brave New World” indeed.

No one yet knows (though many pundits will try to convince you that they know) how the Best Picture race will land and what will fundamentally change about the business of Hollywood when it does. There is much at stake for this change. Indeed, what if a Marvel superhero movie wins Best Picture? Doesn’t that put the gold stamp of approval for the kinds of films that now dominate movie theaters? As good as Black Panther is (and it is very good), it is still a franchise blockbuster — the exact kind of thing the Academy has, in the past, unequivocally rejected. In not choosing Black Panther, what would they hope to preserve in film? Are we moving towards a place where American movies can’t win because American movies are strangled by capitalism? Is that why we’re headed for a year where foreign language films have two slots in the Best Director race and only two American-born directors have won in the category since 2009?

Can American films and American filmmakers hold onto the idea of film as art? And if so, does Netflix offer them safe passage to do that? By awarding Netflix the win, does that mean art is set free from commerce at last and that American directors can once again take bigger risks? Netflix exists separately from hive mind hysteria because you can’t really launch much of a boycott for a Netflix release. Twitter can’t throw a fit and wreck opening weekend numbers, for instance, nor can they throw 200 rotten reviews at Rotten Tomatoes at it. The best case for a Netflix win is that it’s a “safe haven,” perhaps, for art.

The preferential ballot is a tricky thing. What movie comes in at number one? It looks like it will probably be Roma, which should also have no problem picking up number two and three votes (you’re going to have to trust me on this, despite what pundits around the web have claimed). That makes it the safest bet even though you are predicting something that has never happened in 90 years of Oscar history.

Roma has to make history by 1) being the first foreign language film to win in both Best Foreign Language Film and Best Picture, 2) being the first Netflix film to win (it is the first to be nominated, so that isn’t a big deal), and 3) being the first film to win with only a DGA win and no SAG ensemble nomination in the era of the expanded ballot. Remember, The Shape of Water also won the PGA in addition to the DGA. Roma does not have broad guild support. It didn’t win the Eddie. It didn’t win the PGA. It only won the DGA. That might be enough. Heck, Moonlight won with only the WGA, but it did have a solid acting win standing behind it, ensuring people watch the movie — and once they watched it they were won over by it.

The jury is still out on whether or not people will actually watch Roma. Going for it: it was shown at Venice and Telluride, which is the surefire way to win Best Picture in the era of the expanded ballot. Roma could win four: cinematography, foreign language film, director, Best Picture. Maybe it can win supporting actress. It’s possible.

Green Book has to overcome the controversies that have erupted around it, but have you seen its box office lately? It’s making money through word of mouth. That’s good for Green Book. It’s a likable movie to many. It has no Best Director nom AND no SAG ensemble nom. Green Book can win three: supporting actor, original screenplay, Best Picture. Maybe it can also win editing. It’s possible.

If BlacKkKlansman wins the WGA only, it has more going into the race than any of the other films in terms of key nominations. In fact, it’s the stats champ right now, which would make it seem like it has a really good chance of winning three: editing, adapted screenplay, Best Picture. If it wins director, Spike Lee becomes the first African-American to win in the category in 91 years.

Black Panther has SAG ensemble, but it didn’t win the PGA. Can it surprise in Best Picture? Sure it can. Black Panther has no negatives heading into the race, and all positives (except the genre factor, and the lack of writing, directing and acting nominations). It would make history for sure and is a long shot call, but honestly, so are all of them.

Anything else that wins Best Picture will be truly shocking.

Let’s do our predictions, such as they are, and with a grain of salt.

Best Picture
Roma or Green Book or BlacKkKlansman or Black Panther

When I put down my predictions I’m probably going to go with Green Book only because it won the PGA. I plan to run a few polls, however, to see if I can get a better read on consensus voting.

A Star Is Born
Vice
The Favourite
Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Actor
1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Christian Bale, Vice
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife

Despite Olivia Colman winning the BAFTA, I do think it is at last Glenn Close’s year. The reason being that Glenn Close’s incomparable career, for starters, but also her work in The Wife is an actual lead, whereas Colman’s is really a supporting part. Emma Stone is the lead of The Favourite, and I think voters will know that when they choose a winner. I could be wrong, but that’s how I see it.

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
4. Sam Rockwell, Vice
5. Sam Elliot, A Star is Born

Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

This is a tough category. I will continue to predict Regina King because of her popularity in Hollywood. However, I do see this as a category ripe for an upset. And I agree with Scott Feinberg, who said anyone can win. I think Marina de Tavira has a really good shot of upsetting in this category, giving Roma another win to add to its collection.

2. Marina de Tavira, Roma
3. Amy Adams, Vice
4. Emma Stone, The Favourite
5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
3. Adam McKay, Vice
4. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Original Screenplay
1. Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly

Despite the Twitter eruption, I think, depending on how WGA goes, that Green Book still has this. But if not, then it could go to any of these. Paul Schrader, in particular, might win it, being that he is Paul Schrader. But The Favourite could win, Vice could win, even Roma could win in a sweep.

2. First Reformed, Paul Schrader
3. Vice, Adam McKay
4. The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
5. Roma, Alfonso Cuaron

Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman — Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee

We all seem to agree that Spike Lee will at last win a competitive Oscar and he’ll likely get a standing ovation, just saying. But if it isn’t him, Beale Street will win it.

2. If Beale Street Could Talk — Barry Jenkins
3. A Star Is Born — Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me — Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
5. Ballad of Buster Scruggs — Joel and Ethan Coen

Cinematography
1. Roma
3. Cold War
3. The Favourite
4. Never Look Away
5. A Star is Born

Editing
1. BlackKklansman
2. Green Book
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. The Favourite
5. Vice

Production Design
1. Black Panther
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. The Favourite
4. Roma
5. First Man

Sound Mixing
1. Black Panther
2. First Man
3. A Star is Born
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Roma

Sound Editing
1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Roma

Costume Design
1. Black Panther
2. The Favourite
3. Mary Queen of Scots
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Buster Scruggs

Visual Effects
1. First Man
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Ready Player One
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
5. Christopher Robin

Original Score
1. Black Panther
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Isle of Dogs

Original Song
1. Shallow — A Star Is Born
2. I’ll Fight — RBG
3. Where Lost Things Go — Mary Poppins Returns
4. When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings — Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5. All the Stars — Black Panther

Makeup and Hair
1. Vice
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. Border

Animated Feature
1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet
5. Mirai

Documentary Feature
1. Minding the Gap
2. RBG
3. Free Solo
4. Hale County This Morning, This Evening
5. Of Fathers and Sons

Foreign Language Feature
1. Roma (Mexico)
2. Cold War (Poland)
3. Capernaum (Lebanon)
4. Shoplifters (Japan)
5. Never Look Away (Germany)

Live Action Short
1. Skin
2. Mother
3. Marguerite
4. Fauve
5. Detainment

Documentary Short
1. Period. End of Sentence.
2. Black Sheep
3. End Game
4. Lifeboat
5. A Night at the Garden

Animated Short
1. Bao
2. Late Afternoon
3. Animal Behaviour
4. One Small Step
5. Weekends