Frontrunners and Their Challengers – and the Illusion of “Buzz”

Twitter is chock full of proclamations right now that really aren’t based on any kind of reality about what’s happening in the Oscar race. There are more people than ever covering the race. They talk to each other — we  talk to each other — and get ourselves twisted up into a narrative of our own creation that we start to believe is the reality. As though we are the ones who decide what is and isn’t going all the way.

You can get lucky with a guess. You could have come out of Telluride saying, “Moonlight could win Best Picture,” and that would have, in retrospect and in your own mind, settled quite well. Or you could have come out of Telluride believing First Man was going to be a major contender, and when it didn’t happen, it wouldn’t settle so well. Then there are people who came out of Telluride saying no way could Moonlight win Best Picture and also saying no way was First Man going to get nominated. They would, in retrospect, credit themselves for the one they got right, not the one they got wrong. We are all invested in being “right,” and it’s hard to shake that desire and sit out a round with an “I don’t know.” But I can promise you, there are various factors in the race right now that make it wide open.

Here are the factors, in case you’re wondering:

1. Twitter is the not the Academy. Just as it is not representative of the real world of politics. It is a bubble that does a good job of faking us out that it is the reality. What people are talking about on Twitter is like the game of telephone. Random speculations bubble up, and if those speculations seem plausible, they solidify into decisions, and that gets passed off as though it’s reality. Bohemian Rhapsody not being a contender was one of those false realities. A Star is Born being a frontrunner was one of those too. Green Book being too “problematic” to be a winner was a big one of those.
2. Netflix has come to kick ass and take names. They are not fucking around — in terms of the money they’re spending, the publicity teams they’re hiring, and the movies they’ve chosen to finance. Assessing their strategy as we would a “normal” studio is probably a bad idea because we are dealing with a complete unknown. The social media bubble has decided that only three of their movies will get nominated. They leave off the one that is least like the other three: Dolemite Is My Name. Me, I’m betting that won’t be the case as Dolemite will attract voters that the other three won’t. And more than likely, the other three will be splitting up that “contemplative aging white dude” vote. Just saying. Could be wrong. Could be First Manning this — but hey, I just calls ’em as I sees ’em.
3. The bizarre shortened season throws the whole thing out of whack. Of course, you might still get lucky, and it won’t matter that the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, and the Oscar ballot deadlines are all on the same day, January 7. But it most surely will make a difference in how things turn out. It pivots the certification power and high-profile influence solely onto the Globes — and perhaps the critics, to a degree, and also the AFI — in terms of Best Picture.
4. The fight still rages on to determine the destiny of superhero/comic book movies, and that battle isn’t settled yet. It is just like the fight between studios and streaming that isn’t settled yet. Will the Oscars settle things? The fact that Academy voters know fate is in their hands, to some extent, doesn’t make the outcome any easier to guess.
5. Oscars probably ain’t gonna be so white. I don’t think they’d go to all the trouble of inviting a refreshing diversity of new members and overhauling their whole system so that they could continue to churn out all the acting categories filled with white actors. JUST SAYIN.

Okay, so with that out of the way, and with the knowledge that people are, as far as I can tell, a wee bit overconfident with their proclamations on Twitter in a wide-open year with so many inscrutable variables at play, this is how I see the race at the moment.

Best Picture – films that, right now, stand out because they are crowd-pleasers and are are unique — driven by strong performances with lots of actors and celebrated directors

Frontrunners (films I think could win):
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
JoJo Rabbit
The Irishman
Parasite
1917 – sight unseen, have to see it

Contenders I think will be nominated – remember, each film needs around 200-300 number one votes to get in.

Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Dolemite Is My Name
Bombshell

Films I’m not so sure about right now but I could be really wrong about: The Two Popes, Uncut Gems, Hustlers, The Farewell, Little Women, Us, Waves, Queen & Slim, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

Best Director

Frontrunners:

Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Sam Mendes, 1917 (sight unseen)

Contenders with the strongest chance at a nod:

Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit
James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari
Todd Phillips, Joker
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

Challengers who could punch through: 

Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
Jay Roach, Bombshell
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Craig Brewer, Dolemite Is My Name
Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim

Best Actor
Frontrunner:

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Challengers I think could win if nominated:

Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

Contenders that have the best shot at a nod:

Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

Outsiders who could cut in, boosted by pure love of their films:

Song Kang-Ho, Parasite
Roman Griffin Davis, JoJo Rabbit
Matt Damon or Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Taron Egerton, Rocketman

Best Actress
Frontrunner:

Renee Zellweger, Judy

Challengers:

Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

Contenders that have the best shot at a nod:

Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Lupita Nyong’o, Us

But watch out for:

Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim
Awkwafina, The Farewell

Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunner:

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Challengers:

Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Contenders that have the best shot at a nod:

Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Tracy Letts, Ford v Ferrari
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Sterling K. Brown, Waves

But watch out for dark horses who might sneak in:

Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon

Best Supporting Actress

Frontrunner: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Challengers:

Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, JoJo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

Contenders with the best shot at a nod:

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name
Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Annette Bening, The Report

Outsiders with a shot:

Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Motherless Brooklyn
Elisabeth Moss, Us

Original Screenplay

Frontrunner: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Challengers:

Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

Strongest Contenders for a nomination

Dolemite Is My Name, Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski
1917, Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns (sight unseen)
The Farewell, Lulu Wang
Ford v Ferrari , Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth

Outsiders with the best shot to punch through:

Queen & Slim, Lena Waithe
Bombshell, Charles Randolph
Waves, Trey Edward Shultz
Us, Jordan Peele

Adapted Screenplay

Frontrunner: The Irishman, Steve Zaillian

Challengers with best shot at a nom:

JoJo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
Joker, Todd Phillips, Scott Silver

The other categories, as far as we’re concerned, remain wide open. We think it might go like:

Cinematography: 1917
Editing: Ford v Ferrari (or The Irishman, or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, or Joker or Parasite)
Sound, Sound Editing: 1917 (or Ford v Ferrari, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Irishman, Little Women, 1917, Ford v Ferrari, Aeronauts
Costumes: Dolemite Is My Name, Little Women, Judy, Irishman
Visual Effects: 1917 (or The Irishman, Avengers, etc)
Foreign Language Film: Parasite – but Les Miserables is also gonna be in there, as will Pain and Glory.
Animated Film: Lion King vs. Toy Story 4 vs. Frozen 2, but also Missing Link, Abominable, How to Train Your Dragon Hidden World

These are all random guesses. The way the Oscars work is that you don’t really know what is going for sure until the critics and guild wins start coming down, and honestly even then there can be surprises. Right now, there is no such thing as a sure thing.

How I personally see it right now is that people are overestimating some movies greatly and underestimating others greatly. You can never go wrong with the idea of a movie that JUST WORKS no matter whom you sit down in front of it. That is usually the key. What movies have you seen that you can sit anyone down in front of and they will at least get why it is a good movie even if they may not care for it.

The movies this year that, to me, are movies like that would be:

Ford v Ferrari
Dolemite Is My Name
The Two Popes
Parasite
Joker

It doesn’t make them the best films of the year but it does make them films that should not be underestimated.