Predictions Friday – The Pressure is On

Usually by this time of year, it is pretty easy to predict the Oscar race. After the Globes and the SAG the core nominees come into place. But there are so many factors pushing in this year that could make this one of the most unpredictable races in years.

And those factors are:

The Netflix factor – How many Netflix movies will get in? And which ones will get in? The Irishman feels like a lock across the board. Marriage Story also seems fairly solid, although there is always the chance it could be overtaken by the Two Popes. Dolemite is My Name was shut out of the SAG awards which makes it look very clearly like the “expendable” one. No way four get in, no way THREE get in.

The woman factor – Even with the HFPA’s history of nominating female directors more than any other group — Barbara Streisand twice, Kathryn Bigelow twice, Ava DuVernay – they’re still being hit with charges of sexism. This is such a dangerous game to be playing, because I can promise you it doesn’t do women any favors in the long. And it isn’t enough just to rally around one director, as everyone did with Greta Gerwig with Lady Bird because then critics will be charged with “white feminism.” There has to be inclusion across the board with film critics to shield them from being called out on Twitter. They’re trying to do the right thing but really sometimes it seems like they’re simply setting up the best representation FOR THEM as opposed to honoring the best.

But a consensus vote doesn’t work that way. Critics are fond of carefully curating their ideal utopia. A consensus vote just picks what most people like best. If critics and voters haven’t rallied around ONE woman, hopefully around a film that can be called one of the best of the year, then it’s likely the inclusion vote will be split up among many choices. The AFI and other critics groups have solved their ‘white feminism’ problem by always nominating both Little Women and The Farewell. They stopped short of honoring a black female director, which they could have done with Melina Matsoukas’ Queen and Slim. The problem isn’t that the films directed by women aren’t good. They are good. The problem is there is no consensus around “the one.” And none of them are better than the best films of the year.

Still, there is a good chance with the brouhaha (which made it all the way to the New York Times, I told you it would) Little Women will likely save the Academy from a similar fate as the HFPA – the last thing they want is yet more shitstorms.

The date factor – Just how we know climate change is going to be bad, we just don’t know HOW bad, the date change this year, pushing everything back in an already rushed season is going to be bad. We just don’t know how bad. Why, because popular opinion is built bit by bit. The consensus revolves around the films chosen by each group. Each time a movie is chosen, it adds to the prestige factor. But this year, the PGA, DGA and Oscar ballot deadline are all on the SAME day, January 7. How is that going to go? It’s hard to say.

To get a clearer picture of the Oscar race, it would certainly help to have more intel with the PGA and the DGA but let’s do the best we can.

Before I continue, you might be wondering what MY favorite films of the year are. You might already know. But it would like this (in no particular order):

1917
Parasite
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford v Ferrari
Dolemite is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
The Irishman
Queen and Slim
Pain and Glory
Blinded by the Light
Honey Boy

Three of my favorite movies this year have no shot at getting into the Best Picture race are directed by women. I can’t argue that they should replace the films that will get into Best Picture because I know that the race isn’t about what one person thinks. It’s about what a lot of people think. I don’t agree with the idea that we should tinker with our utopian diorama to depict that vision outward to the world. Instead, I believe we should follow what we genuinely think are the best films of the year. I know why I love the movies I do – because of them found a place deep in my heart and I will enjoy them for years to come.  But only a few of them will make an appearance below:

Best Picture
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood — Globe/Globe Director/Globe Screenplay/Globes Actor/SAG actor/SAG ensemble/ACE
The Irishman–Globe/Globe Director/Globe Screenplay/Globes Actor/SAG Actor/SAG ensemble/SAG/ACE
Parasite–Globe Director/Screenplay/SAG ensemble/ACE
Joker–Globe/Globe Director/Globes Actor/ACE/SAG actor
1917–Globe/Globe Director
Jojo Rabbit–Globe/Globes Actor/SAG ensemble/SAG actor
Marriage Story–Globe/Globes Actor/Globe Screenplay/SAG actor
Bombshell — Globes Actor/SAG actor/SAG ensemble

So then you’d have to pick one of these:
Ford v Ferrari   (Globes/SAG actor)
Little Women  (Globes actor)
Knives Out (Globes/Globes actor)
Uncut Gems

If it’s me, you know which one I’d pick, Ford v Ferrari and it wouldn’t even be a hard choice but what that movie seems to lack is passionate number one votes – otherwise it would have gotten in at Globes. It’s a bit depressing to see the big studios represent in such an impressive way this year – which is really what the Oscars are built to support – and have these efforts go unacknowledged. Oh well. C’est la Guerre.

From here it gets a wee bit easier:

Best Director
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker

Also possible:
James Mangold, Ford v Ferarri
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Safdies, Uncut Gems
Jay Roach, Bombshell
Greta Gerwig, Marriage Story
Lulu Wang, The Farewell

BEST ACTOR
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Christian Bale, Ford V. Ferrari
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name

Also possible:
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
George MacKay, 1917
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell

BEST ACTRESS
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

Also possible:
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Ana De Armas, Knives Out

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Tom Hanks, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

Also possible:
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite is My Name
Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell
Tracy Letts, Ford v Ferrari
Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit
Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell

Also possible:
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite is My Name
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
Parasite, Bong Joon-Ho, Jin Won Han
Dolemite is My Name, Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski
1917, Krysty Wilson-Cairns, Sam Mendes

Also possible:
Uncut Gems, The Safdie brothers
Knives Out
Bombshell, Charles Randolph
The Farewell, Lulu Wang
Ford V. Ferrari , Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth
Queen & Slim, Lena Waithe
Honey Boy, Shia LaBeouf

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman, Steve Zaillian
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
Joker, Todd Phillips, Scott Silver

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
Ford V. Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
The Irishman

Also possible:
The Lighthouse
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
A Hidden Life
Ad Astra
Parasite

EDITING
Ford v Ferarri
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Parasite

Also possible:
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Marriage Story

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1917
The Irishman
Parasite
Ford V. Ferrari

SOUND MIXING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Rocketman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman

SOUND EDITING
Ford v Ferarri
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
The Irishman

COSTUME DESIGN
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Dolemite is My Name
Rocketman
Little Women
Downton Abbey

VISUAL EFFECTS
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Ad Astra
The Aeronauts

ORIGINAL SCORE
Marriage Story
1917
Little Women
Joker
Jojo Rabbit

ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
Missing Link
The Lion King
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
For Sama
The Factory
Honeyland
Apollo 11
Sea of Shadows

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Parasite, South Korea
Pain & Glory, Spain
Les Misérables, France
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
The Boy Who Harnassed the Wind, UK