Where once the Oscars were nothing but open doors (despite how may of us insist upon closing them), now we’re rounding the corner towards the hammer coming down, if you’ll excuse the mixed metaphor. We’re just about ready to say goodbye to some darlings and hello to some unwelcome guests, but we will and must face the reality of what the Oscars are and what they aren’t.
What they are: a compromise and an agreement that these are the best of the year. What they aren’t: any good indicator of what films will stand the test of time, whether they will be remembered even a year from now, much less ten years from now, much less 40 years from now. Many of them will, but as always, they represent a snapshot of where American culture was at a given point in time. Probably in this era, one will be able to tell a good deal about who Hollywood was in 2020 by the films chosen in this year’s race.
The Globes have busted out a bit from the insular “bubble” that has mostly driven the Oscar race of late. The feedback loop is: Film Twitter drives film criticism which drives critics awards which drives the Oscar race, more or less. The Globes have broken free of this now and again, driving one contender or two that sit on the more populist side of things like Bohemian Rhapsody or like The Martian. But are there any movies this year that would fit this model?
If the Globes were to bust out of the model designated up to now by the feedback loop of Film Twitter and the Oscar race, they might go for films that live outside of it. I’m thinking specifically of Paul Greengrass and News of the World, Christopher Nolan’s Tenet, which has been likewise ignored and has no Oscar campaign to speak of. Or Warner’s Judas and the Black Messiah, which is one of the other “big studio” movies in the race that is gaining a bit of traction as we head into the final end game.
Another movie is Universal’s The Invisible Man, starring Elisabeth Moss, which is a really good movie that was also made for larger audiences. But as of March or April, theaters and the movies that were supposed to launch out of them have been mostly MIA. I gather there are actual movie theaters still open in places, but overall the Oscar launch from a major film has been absent. Pixar’s Soul is certainly another mainstream film as is Disney’s Mulan. Other movies like Greenland or Let Him Go aren’t getting anywhere near the Oscar race despite their broad appeal.
Whether either the Golden Globes and/or the Producers Guild will introduce more populist films into the mix is something we’ll find out in a few weeks. But at the moment, we have no guideposts beyond what’s come before.
The other thing that is about to happen is the BAFTA announcing their long list, which they will be doing February 4th. After being called out last year the BAFTA has gotten very serious with its own efforts to diversity, as the Academy has. Here is what they say in their rules:
BAFTA 2020 REVIEW
BAFTA announced wide-ranging changes to its voting, membership and campaigning processes as it published the findings of its in-depth, independently verified seven-month Awards Review. The changes signal the beginning of a significant cultural shift in BAFTA and challenges the industry to address the serious lack of opportunity and equality.
The Report in full along with the list of over 120 key changes being introduced, is available here.
The Globes are announced Wednesday and the BAFTA long list, along with SAG, is releasing the following day, February 4th. They have put out their voting regulations in a fairly neat chart. If I’m reading correctly, they are separating male and female directors for their long list, and though there are so many women in the race this year it will likely be easy. It should make a more welcoming process for women going forward, I would imagine.
Since we already have the most diverse lineup the Oscar race has ever seen — like, ever — and a lot of that is due to both the COVID restrictions but also the film critics guiding the race in this direction. The trick will be whether this produces long-lasting change or whether eventually, as happened after the same kind of cultural wave in the 1970s and into the 80s, things slump back to the way they always have been. I guess we’ll have to wait and see on that one.
Needless to say, the SAG awards, also announcing on February 4th, will close many doors as well. It might open a few. You never know. We’ll be doing a preview of the Globes, the BAFTA and the SAG in the next days.
Here are Oscar predictions prior to the massive iceberg the awards race is about to hit.
Predictions
Best Picture
Frontrunners
Nomadland — Director, Actress, maybe Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score – Globes/PGA/BAFTA/DGA — probably not SAG but you never know.
Trial of the Chicago 7 — Director probably, Screenplay, maybe Supporting Actor or two, probably Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design, perhaps Sound, maybe Hair & Makeup. Globes/PGA/BAFTA/DGA/SAG
Mank – Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Editing, Production Design, Costumes, Cinematography, Hair and Makeup, maybe Score. Globes/PGA/BAFTA/DGA/SAG
Minari – Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Editing, maybe Cinematography
News of the World – Picture, maybe Actor, maybe Director, Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design, Cinematography, Sound PGA/BAFTA/DGA/SAG
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Picture, Actor, Actress, Screenplay, maybe Supporting Actor, Production Design, Costumes, Hair and Makeup Globes/PGA/BAFTA/SAG
Judas and the Black Messiah – Picture, maybe Director, maybe Screenplay, Supporting actor, maybe Production Design
One Night in Miami – Picture, maybe Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor, maybe Costumes, maybe Production Design PGA/SAG
Promising Young Woman – Picture, Actress, maybe Director, Screenplay PGA, maybe Globes,BAFTA, maybe SAG.
Sound of Metal – Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, maybe Director. PGA, Maybe Globes, maybe BAFTA, maybe SAG.
Soul Picture, Animated Feature, Screenplay, Score – PGA
Strong contenders:
The Father – could get a significant boost from the Globes or the BAFTA – in fact, probably the BAFTA is going to give it the leg up it needs to launch into the race.
Longer shots: Any of these films could be boosted by either Globes or BAFTA
Malcolm & Marie
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
On the Rocks
The Mauritanian
Ammonite
Best Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Next tier
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Lee Daniels, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Florian Zeller, The Father
George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Best Actor
Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Gary Oldman, Mank
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Strong contenders
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Steven Yeun, Minari
Colin Firth, Supernova
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
Best Actress
Frontrunners
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Strong contenders:
Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
Robin Wright, Land
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Longer shots:
Sophia Loren, A Life Ahead
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Frank Langella, Trial of the Chicago 7
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Strong contenders
Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7
Mark Rylance, Trial of the Chicago 7
Arliss Howard, Mank
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Damian Bichir, Land
Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Charles Dance, Mank
Best Supporting Actress
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Olivia Colman, The Father
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of Woman
Strong Contenders
Dominique Fishbeck, Judas and the Black Messiah
Helena Zengel, News of the World
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Original Screenplay
Trial of the Chicago 7, Aaron Sorkin
Promising Young Woman, Emerald Fennell
Mank, Jack Fincher
Soul, Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers
Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Eliza Hittman
Next tier
On the Rocks, Sofia Coppola
Ammonite, Francis Lee
Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland, Chloe Zhao
News of the World, Paul Greengrass, Luke Davies
The Father, Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ruben Santiago-Hudson
One Night in Miami, Kemp Powers
Cinematography
Mank
Nomadland
News of the World
Emma
Trial of the Chicago 7
Editing
Nomadland
Mank
News of the World
Trial of the Chicago 7
The Outpost
Production Design
Mank
Mulan
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
Sound
Sound of Metal
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
The Outpost
The Prom
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Costumes
Mank
David Copperfield
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan
Score
Nomadland
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Soul
Mank
Trial of the Chicago 7
Next tier:
Promising Young Woman
Nomadland
Midnight Sky
Hair/Makeup
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Emma
Animated Feature
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Earwig and the Witch
Onward
(TBD)
Full list of eligible animated films here
Documentary Feature
Crip Camp
All in The Fight for Democracy
The Dissident
City Hall
Collective
Strong contenders
The Social Dilemma
Time
Dick Johnson is Dead
Gunda
MLK/FBI
Here are the eligible films for Doc Feature
Foreign Language
Collective (Romania)
Another Round (Denmark)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)
(TBD)
(TBD)
Here are the eligible films for Foreign Language.