SAG Preview and Predictions

The Screen Actors Guild will throw their hat in the ring tomorrow and they’ll be very different from the Globes. They will be announcing their nominations in both film and TV, in lead, supporting and ensemble cast categories.

The SAG/AFTRA has traditionally been the most inclusive of the big guilds. This should be a decent enough trial run for how the Oscar noms might go. That’s in an ordinary year, mind you. This is no ordinary year for the reasons mentioned many times already – like a minimal slate of films, the long slow season. Usually it all happens pretty quickly and there isn’t a lot of time for voters to ruminate and make their choices accordingly.

This year, they do. We’ll be posting our predictions below, and you should enter our SAG contest but let’s just briefly look at the ensemble category to see how many SAG selections make it into the Oscars expanded ballot:

2009
Inglourious Basterds* (GG nom) (NBR)
An Education (NBR)
The Hurt Locker+ (GG nom) (AFI) (NBR)
Nine (GG nom)
Precious (GG nom)(AFI)

2010
The King’s Speech*+ (GG nom)(AFI)
Black Swan (GG nom)(AFI)
The Fighter (GG nom)(AFI) (NBR)
The Kids Are All Right (GG nom)(AFI)
The Social Network (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)

2011
The Help* (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)
The Artist+ (GG winner)(AFI)(NBR)
Bridesmaids (GG nom)(AFI)
The Descendants (GG winner)(AFI)(NBR)
Midnight in Paris (GG nom)(AFI)

2012
Argo*+ (GG winner)(AFI)(NBR)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (GG nom)
Les Miserables (GG winner)(AFI)(NBR)
Lincoln (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)
Silver Linings Playbook (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)

2013
American Hustle* (GG winner)(AFI)
12 Years a Slave+ (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)
August: Osage County
The Butler
Dallas Buyers Club 

2014
Birdman*+ (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)
Boyhood (GG winner)(AFI)(NBR)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (GG winner)
The Imitation Game (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)
The Theory of Everything (GG nom)

2015
Spotlight*+  (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short (GG nom)(AFI)
Straight Outta Compton(AFI)(NBR)
Trumbo

2016
Hidden Figures*(NBR)
Captain Fantastic
Fences(AFI)
Manchester by the Sea (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)
Moonlight+ (GG winner)(AFI)(NBR)

2017
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri* (GG winner)(AFI)
The Big Sick(AFI)
Get Out (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)
Lady Bird (GG winner)(AFI)
Mudbound

2018
Black Panther* (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)
BlackKklansman (GG nom)(AFI)
Bohemian Rhapsody (GG winner)
Crazy Rich Asians
A Star is Born (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)

2019
Parasite*+ (GG nom/foreign lang)(AFI)(NBR)
Bombshell
The Irishman (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)
Jojo Rabbit (GG nom)(AFI)(NBR)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (GG winner)(AFI)(NBR)

Since 2009, 12 SAG choices did not go on to get Oscar nominated. But 43 did. Some years, as you can see, all five got in.

The only two films that got both a Globe nom and a SAG ensemble nom was Nine and Bridesmaids, both in the Musical/Comedy section at the Globes. All of those that had crossover in drama made it to Best Picture. So that’s an FYI. And as you can see, the Best Picture winner no longer needs a SAG ensemble nom – Green Book, Shape of Water both won Best Picture without it.

Our Musical/Comedy selection from the Globes, once again:

Borat
Hamilton
Music
Palm Springs
The Prom

Hamilton is likely to be put in SAG ensemble and I’m honestly wondering if it wins if it does get in. How do you deny THAT movie?

Bridesmaids is the only film to earn both citations from Globes/AFI so let’s look at Globes/AFI crossover of this year’s nominees:

Nomadland (Globes/AFI)
Mank (Globes/AFI)
Chicago 7 (Globes/AFI)

Now let’s fold in the Globes with the NBR:
Promising Young Woman (Globes/NBR)

And the only movie that hits all three:
Nomadland (Globes/AFI/NBR)

But here’s the tricky part – Nomadland may or may not make the SAG ensemble. So just for the hell of it, let’s look at Best Picture winners that got all three and did not earn a SAG nom — it will be a small list.

The Shape of Water (Globes/AFI)
Green Book (Globes/AFI/NBR)

Nomadland could follow in the footsteps of The Shape of Water quite easily.

Let’s get onto our predictions for the SAG tomorrow.

Sasha Stone:

Best Ensemble
Chicago 7 (Globes/AFI)
Mank (Globes/AFI)
Da 5 Bloods (NBR)
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Alt. The Father, Promising Young Woman, The Prom

Best Actress
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Alt. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actress
Amanda Seyfired, Mank
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Helena Zengel, News of the World

Best Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Sacha Baron Cohen, Chicago 7
Bill Murray, On the Rocks

Mark Johnson:

Best Ensemble
Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Promising Young Woman

Best Actress
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie

Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Gary Oldman, Mank
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

Best Supporting Actress
Amanda Seyfired, Mank
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Sacha Baron Cohen, Chicago 7
Bill Murray, On the Rocks

Clarence Moye:

Best Ensemble
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank

Best Supporting Actress
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfired, Mank

Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Frank Langella, Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal