The State of the Race — Forget Your Troubles, Come On Get Happy

The longest Oscar race in history is about to get a much-needed shot in the arm with the Golden Globes on Sunday. Shit is about to get real. The hammer is about to come down. And in unison, from throughout the cyberland, it will spark a million think pieces about what is WRONG with the Golden Globes, or hey, maybe what is RIGHT with the Golden Globes.

Either way, we’d all be advised to remember it is just the Golden Globes. And we can say that about the Oscars too. Let’s not kid ourselves. This is not a political election; it is a fancy party wherein a King or Queen for a day is given a crown to much plaudits among peers and the public.

Now that the Democrats are in power, we might imagine that the awards could look something like this:

But whom are we kidding. We’re a long way away from the politics of awards season. We’re very much in the thick of it. If only it was Ricky Gervais preparing to address Hollywood and to call out its hypocrisy and to do what all great comedians do: poke fun at those who have all of the power. But Gervais was given the heave-ho after cutting a little too close to the bone. So now we will be hanging out with Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, who will be nice to the right people and mean to the right people and all will be right with the world.

https://youtu.be/sR6UeVptzRg

That video, by the way, was among the most watched of the past year and holds at 32 million views.

What will we all think about the Oscars 2020/2021 when we look back? Will it seem like a happy time or a dark time? The election, COVID, the Capitol riot, the ongoing wave of cancel culture that has not let up. By all accounts, the award shows will be very much in keeping with the Biden presidency: a somber affair with COVID at the forefront, always mindful of what they will be accused of by most: with so many people dead and hurt from COVID, how can Hollywood celebrate? Here is what EW says:

In general, people would love for these shows to be more… fun? A little levity to relieve some of the pressure. But Hollywood serves one side of the political aisle and one ideology and thus, they will have to present themselves as caring, involved, cautious good citizens.

There was a time many moons ago when they worked hard to leave politics out of it for fear of alienating half the country. That ship has sailed now as each side hates the other. That means the ratings will likely slide anyway. Leaving politics out of it isn’t going to help them in the short run. If they keep politics in they were serve their core audience. Ratings have been taking a hit as the awards shows have become increasingly political, and especially left-leaning. They are becoming more exclusive and less inclusive, unless you measure inclusivity the way the Left does — as being about gender and identity.

Either way, here is how the ratings have stacked up in the Trump era:

Here is how the Oscars have stacked up since 2000.

In figuring out how the Globes will influence the Oscars, we first have to understand how voters will be watching Sunday’s show and how different it will be from other years.

How do we build buzz? How do we build momentum? How do we gauge whether or not people are excited about the winner or not? We don’t. We have to just guess. There aren’t going to be any awards shows leading up to the Oscars that will be held in-person. No clapping. No standing ovations. No tears.

What will we have? Brace yourselves.

TWITTER. Twitter is what we’ll have.

That soul crushing water cooler hellscape that brings out the worst in humanity will be our only measure of what sells and what doesn’t. Press coverage feeds off of Twitter. There won’t be any other way to tell what the industry is responding through other than what wins the awards. It is possible Fey and Poehler will make some jokes about the movies on offer, probably they’ll target Netflix pretty hard and streaming in general. I’m sure Disney will be targeted.

So much of our awards watching depends on the crowds in the room. This is the first time in history of the public watching the awards that it will be quiet, like the Democratic National Convention was.

So, are the nominees and winners going be waiting on Zoom? And then the camera focuses in on the winner? And then there is no statue?

EW says that presenters will join Fey and Poehler but also says nothing about how the nominees will be contacted and told if they win. Anyone who wins and is good on camera — like funny and humble and exciting — they’ll get a boost from this. It is a different skill to be able to stand up in a room full of people and win an award than perform on camera.

I could not find the answer to this question. But if anyone knows, please leave it in the comments. I am imagining it will be a Zoom call. The actors should all be able to handle this well, as they’re used to being on camera — but anyone who isn’t used to that might have a slightly more awkward time presenting themselves to a television audience as opposed to a live audience. Both are frightening in different ways.

What we know will NOT be happening is our old tradition of reading popularity based on applause when people announce each name or each film.

Here is a little of what it kind of might look like. The HFPA hosted first-time nominees in one Zoom call:

https://youtu.be/AYMa9chRFHo

Ordinarily I would tell you to listen to how the crowd to responds to these movies. Remember when Parasite’s cast entered the room during the SAG Awards and got a standing ovation? That was a good foreshadowing that it was about to win Best Picture. But no contender this year will get that kind of a lucky break.

So where are we prior to the Globes?

Nomadland is a chance for the industry to at last award a woman of color and is a bit of a nod to the nation’s first Vice President — a woman of color. When Kathryn Bigelow won in 2010 and 12 Years a Slave won in 2014, all of that was a reflection of the Obama era, the nation’s first black President. It is no coincidence that right around then America and Hollywood began its era of what some might call “identity politics.” Or “woke ideology.” Obama’s win was its own kind of revolutionary act that then opened the door for other marginalized groups to start reaching for power and demanding equal rights. That is why we all became caught up in the “first woman” or the “first black director” and #OscarsSoWhite. It was the idea of inequality and unfairness in the shadow of a massive cultural shift with Obama in power.

Throughout the Trump era it all began to break apart as it seemed to be threatened by Trump, and that is why we saw the rise of policing or “cancel culture” affecting all areas of the cultural Left, including the Oscars. Now that Biden is in charge, and Kamala Harris is the Veep, and Biden’s administration is focused almost exclusively on equity and systemic racism, you can imagine that it will have a big impact on this race and how the wins are processed by the cultural Left and the country overall. The films with inclusive casts and themes are covered in this new era.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 is more like the kinds of films that traditionally win: big cast, lots of stars, lots of crafts, good people doing good things, crisp dialogue. One could argue it is very much in keeping with the ideology of the Biden administration. It will just depend if that is how people see it, how it makes them feel to vote for it.

The other one to watch is Promising Young Woman, which seems to be enjoying strong word-of-mouth as can sometimes happen in an extended season as this one has been. The benefit of having a late Oscars is that people have more time to watch movies, ruminate on them, discuss them, and through that buzz begins to build. The one film that keeps growing in admiration is Promising Young Woman, so I won’t be surprised if Emerald Fennell gets in for Best Director, for instance.

News of the World remains the lone big studio contender, and I think there has to be a part of the voting body that realizes that and thinks they might want it be a strong Oscar contender to keep the studios involved in this year’s race and to keep them relevant. Universal also doesn’t even have a streaming platform to dump its movies onto, so, in a weird way, they get to claim that moral high ground. I have to think that is going to make a difference.

The Mank team is doing an exceptional job highlighting the film’s beauty and its crafts especially, with making-of videos showing up here and there. Every time you see a Mank advertisement on social media or on billboards it is the most beautiful thing you’ve seen that day. They are slowly building prestige that way, which does help when it comes time to lay down awards.

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is also holding steady thanks to the frontrunner status of Chadwick Boseman. I am slightly worried about Judas and the Black Messiah and The United States vs. Billie Holiday, but those films might still show up at the Oscars. You just never know.

Minari seems to be coming on strong with word-of-mouth as well, and is one of the only uplifting films in the race, which has to count for something. There are films we can’t predict whether they will land or not, like The Father or Borat or Palm Springs.  I am still holding out hope for Hillbilly Elegy. The Producers Guild and Directors Guild nominations will help clear a lot of this up in a couple of weeks.

I can’t tell you what is going to happen and how it is going to go. I can only watch it with you and then try to process what we all just saw, how Twitter responded to that, what went viral, what drove the think pieces and who emerges popular out of that mess.

The Oscars are still TWO MONTHS AWAY, but the end of nominations voting happens on March 10. Once 5 p.m. hits, it’s pencils down for Phase One. That’s 13 days from now. Everything that happens between now and then will decide what films and contenders are nominated.

Stay frosty, Oscar watchers. It will all be over soon. Well, in two months, but still. Hang in there.