Venice Dispatch – Will Win / Should Win

In hindsight it always makes so much sense. Like, of course rule-breaker and game-changer Spike Lee was going to give the Palme d’Or to an edgy, sexy, balls-out crazy horror movie directed by a lady. Or Hollywood royalty Annette Bening would have a soft spot for quality studio productions like THE SHAPE OF WATER. So the question now is: What will Bong like?

We’ve seen all 21 films in competition at the 78th Venice Film Festival. After a stunning start, the festival did suffer a bit of a slump in the second half, but overall I’d say this is still one of the stronger lineups in recent memory and we definitely have a race on our hands. Let’s get into it.

Best Young Performer

Will win: Filippo Scotti (THE HAND OF GOD)
Should win: Anamaria Vartolomei (HAPPENING)

What often seems like a throwaway prize is actually quite competitive this year. Purely on merit I’d say either Anamaria Vartolomei (HAPPENING) or Kodi Smit-McPhee (THE POWER OF THE DOG) deserves this. But strategic thinking makes me look further, because something tells me those two films would be awarded later in the night.

Which leads me to think Filippo Scotti (THE HAND OF GOD) has a pretty decent shot. Scotti is Sorrentino’s stand-in in the director’s bittersweet autobiographical film, which is very well-liked in Venice (leading the local critics’ jury grid). What could hurt the charismatic actor is that he doesn’t really get that much to do in the movie, being mostly in the passive role of the observer. So any of Aurora Giovinazzo (FREAKS OUT), Milena Smit (PARALLEL MOTHERS) or two young actors who carry their respective films – Benjamin Voisin (LOST ILLUSIONS) and Hatzín Navarrete (THE BOX) – could also win this.

Best Screenplay

Will win: THE CARD COUNTER
Should win: THE CARD COUNTER

Schrader’s screenplay for THE CARD COUNTER is the work of a master and something I can easily see Bong be a fan of. So unless the jury intends to save a spot for the film further down the winners’ list, I think this is a safe bet.

But definitely watch out for the very funny, showbiz-satirizing OFFICIAL COMPETITION, the realist-fantastical hybrid CAPTAIN VOLKONOGOV ESCAPED, the hauntingly spare SUNDOWN and the biopic-reinventing SPENCER on the original screenplay’s side. Of the adapted screenplays, any of THE POWER OF THE DOG, HAPPENING, LOST ILLUSIONS or the sturdy, sobering historical drama LEAVE NO TRACES (already submitted by Poland for Oscar consideration) would make a worthy winner.

Best Actor

Will win: Tim Roth (SUNDOWN)
Should win: Oscar Isaac (THE CARD COUNTER)

Isaac gets my vote for a sizzling, beautifully controlled performance, but the jury may want to spread the love and recognize the equally fantastic Roth, who embodies the man of mystery at the heart of the strange, seductive SUNDOWN. Other contenders include Benedict Cumberbatch (THE POWER OF THE DOG), Antonio Banderas (solo or with Oscar Martínez) (OFFICIAL COMPETITION), Vincent Lindon (ANOTHER WORLD) and Italian acting legend Toni Servillo (THE KING OF LAUGHTER).

Best Actress

Will win: Anamaria Vartolomei (HAPPENING)
Should win: Anamaria Vartolomei (HAPPENING)

The most fatal mistake one can make at awards prediction is to be partial, and I openly admit my partiality for HAPPENING. This is the film in the lineup that moved me the most and I’m just impressed with its every aspect, in particular lead actress Vartolomei, who is a true revelation. If she’s not given the newcomer award, this one should be hers to lose. Her competition comes in the form of former winner Olivia Colman (THE LOST DAUGHTER), Kristen Stewart (SPENCER), Penélope Cruz (PARALLEL MOTHERS and/or OFFICIAL COMPETITION), as well as two actresses who have relatively limited screen time but kill it whenever they show up: Sandra Korzeniak (LEAVE NO TRACES) and Kirsten Dunst (THE POWER OF THE DOG).

Best Director

Will win: Pablo Larraín (SPENCER)
Should win: Jane Campion (THE POWER OF THE DOG)

This is a hard one to predict, because there are just so many auteurs doing fascinating work this year. I can be totally off but I sense that SPENCER will win something, and this category feels like a good fit. It’s Larraín’s vision that makes this film about someone we all think we know so surprising and unconventional. Otherwise, I can very much see the directors of the two ultra-experimental films in the lineup take this: Michelangelo Frammartino (IL BUCO) and Valentyn Vasyanovych (REFLECTION). Alternatively, the helmers of the two flashiest, mainstream-leaning titles could just as well stand out: Erik Matti (ON THE JOB 2: THE MISSING 8), Gabriele Mainetti (FREAKS OUT). Speaking of which…

Special Jury Prize

Will win: ON THE JOB 2: THE MISSING 8
Should win: THE CARD COUNTER

Without the added prestige of the Golden Lion or the Grand Jury Prize, this category is sometimes where the jury gives their guilty pleasure its due. And I can quite imagine Bong having a blast with the 3.5-hour long Filipino thriller ON THE JOB 2: THE MISSING 8. Oh man this movie is a lot. It’s an indictment of political corruption and media manipulation in the Philippines by way of a chilling homicide investigation that’s somehow also hilarious at times. The audacity of some of Matti’s directorial choices is breathtaking. The same can be said of FREAKS OUT, an INGLORIOUS BASTERDS meets X-MEN extravaganza that is the opposite of fine art but so much eye-popping fun.

Grand Jury Prize

Will win: IL BUCO
Should win: HAPPENING

With its radically experimental approach, IL BUCO is destined to be a polarizing film. But whether you enjoy it or not, there should be no question about its transcendent beauty and the grandeur of its spiritual quest. It also easily stands out from the rest of the lineup, which always helps.

Golden Lion

Will win: THE POWER OF THE DOG
Should win: THE POWER OF THE DOG

Jane Campion’s THE POWER OF THE DOG is an undeniable artistic achievement, period. Obviously I could be completely off the mark, but I have a hard time picturing the film leaving Venice empty-handed and honestly, this would be the most appropriate place to honor it. Very rarely does every element of a film come together so splendidly as in this reimagined western. After Chloé Zhao won the Oscar and Julia Ducournau won Cannes, will Campion be the next female filmmaker to take home the top prize this year? We’ll find out very soon.

The winners of the 78th Venice Film Festival will be announced by jury president Bong Joon Ho tomorrow Sep. 11th.