Best Actress — Where Does the Race Stand?

Now that the awards pundits and tastemakers have seen Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci, the conversation is swirling around Best Actress. It is admirable that Ridley Scott has turned out two epics that are both two and a half hours long and are both interesting deep dives based on true stories. In my opinion, the stronger film is The Last Duel. It is better written, better acted, and better as a whole. But for many mainstream moviegoers it is probably not as “fun” as House of Gucci and when people are feeling despairing, they might opt for “fun” over something as serious as The Last Duel.

Regarding the two films’ respective Best Actress hopefuls, Jodie Comer is the more skilled actress whereas Lady Gaga is the bigger star with a magnetic red carpet appeal. Acting is not as easy as it looks, it turns out. Some people can just drop into it and be great at it — for others, it’s a work in progress. We’re seeing a few performances this year by non-actors. The critics seem to prefer these more naturalized performances. But I just don’t know how the actors will feel. Gaga does seem like perfect casting and much of this role is perfect for her. She’s funny, sexy, focused, and mean. But in the film’s second half, she is given the harder job of deep emotions. Some of it lands, some of it doesn’t — maybe it will matter, maybe it won’t. It’s hard to say right now.

Lady Gaga was beloved and nominated for her first big role in A Star Is Born. In fact, Ridley Scott said that is why he wanted her for this role. She has many good scenes in House of Gucci, and is at her best when she gets to be a “bad” character. But the film seems to want to have it both ways: for us to sympathize with her character but also depict her as a conniving villain. Gaga herself does not seem to know where to go with that ultimately, though the film seems to be landing on a crime of passion and a broken heart rather than a power grab.

Gaga’s pure star power should get her pretty close to the race, and she is probably looking at a nomination, depending on how voters like the film overall. She would not be the first big star whose real-life presence infused her acting: Cher and Barbra Streisand are two who did it before her. Madonna was never quite able to make the jump. Gaga is somewhere between Streisand and Madonna, but in Gucci she leans a wee bit towards Madonna. That’s not a bad thing necessarily, but it’s a question of how the actors will feel about it.

Either which way, Gaga does not seem to be (at least right now) a threat to the frontrunner, Kristen Stewart. In my humble opinion, the biggest threat to Stewart comes from a different singer/actress , Jennifer Hudson, who plays Aretha Franklin in Respect.

Unlike Gaga in Gucci, Hudson is playing a singer, which is more her wheelhouse. When you hear her sing in the film, it is absolutely transformational. If House of Gucci had been a musical, Gaga could have busted out her magnificent pipes and it would have taken her further. Either way, it still seems like the red hot/on fire frontrunner is Stewart, and that is due in large part to her marketing team, who are doing a great job with Spencer.

I wish I could say that Jodie Comer would be one of the five. In all ways, The Last Duel is the better film of the two Ridley Scott movies, but House of Gucci seems to have more buzz (at least online, for what that’s worth). The Last Duel could only really be a player if the Golden Globes elevate it, because the critics will not. They are much more likely (and trust me on this because I know) to go for House of Gucci.

Olivia Colman also seems to be picking up heat for The Lost Daughter and has the kick-ass Netflix marketing team behind her, so that also seems to be very nearly a lock at this point.

Another one to watch is Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers. So far, only Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere is championing her as the frontrunner. But if the movie is as good as everyone says it is, Cruz is probably in.

So it’s possible, at least from what we know right now, that Best Actress is looking like this:

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
2. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
3. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
4. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci or Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter, or Jodie Comer, The Last Duel or Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

It really is going to be a tough competition in Best Actress and I would not be surprised if the voters iced out Hudson to make room for Colman, but I do think these named here are your main contenders. We’re still waiting on Rachel Zegler in West Side Story and Jennifer Lawrence in Don’t Look Up.

In terms of Best Picture, The Tragedy of Macbeth, House of Gucci, and maybe The Last Duel seem to have more of a shot than the others. If Spencer makes it in, then we know for sure it’s a done deal. What I’m wondering about Spencer is what the British voters are going to think about it. Are they going to be supportive of its take on the whole story? Are they going to be prickly about it? We just don’t know. But what we do know is that BAFTA is very influential on the voting Academy.

Over at AwardsWatch, Erik Anderson has taken both Jennifer Hudson and Lady Gaga out of his predictions:

BEST ACTRESS
1. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON)
2. Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple)
3. Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
5. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)

Over at Gold Derby, the predictions are kind of all over the place, but Jazz Tangcay does have Gaga in the top spot.

I understand that the way I am reading the race is different from the pundits. The reason is that I don’t really follow Film Twitter or anyone else to anticipate how I think the race is going to go. I’m trying to look more broadly. Erik here has predicted all five Best Actress contenders to be white. Now, in 2021, after all of the mandates and directives and changes to the industry and the country, does anyone REALLY think it’s going to go that way? Because I’m pretty sure it won’t go that way.

I suppose it is possible, but now imagine BAFTA. Their members don’t even pick their nominees but you can bet they won’t be picking all-white nominees, so there is a chance that maybe one or two of Erik’s list will be on BAFTA’s list. Who knows what actresses will be on there or whether they can build a consensus out of that, but if Jennifer Hudson lands on that list and the Globes? Well, now you’ll see some hard core momentum heading into Oscar night.