The State of the Race: People Will Come

Somewhere between critics and audiences should sit the Oscars. As critics have become more insular, what drives success in Hollywood has become more populist. The gap between the two has never been wider than it is right now, as we watch Spider-Man: No Way Home break box office records — not just during the pandemic, not just for any Marvel movie, but all-time. It opened with a staggering $260 million, proving that yes, Ray, people will come if you give them a field of dreams.

Just as Field of Dreams is about recapturing something that has been lost, Spider-Man made people go out to the theaters far and wide. We’ve been talking about the growing divide between superhero movies, or the content Hollywood puts out on a massive scale, versus the “prestige” pics or art-house fare that critics and Oscar voters like for a while now. There was a time when we could all afford to be picky. That was before COVID laid out the prestige pics flat. No mercy. No box office. It felt like something significant had been laid to rest: the adult movie.

But after West Side Story opened to just $10 million, along comes Spider-Man and opens bigger than anyone could have possibly imagined. Part of that was great word-of-mouth and great reviews. The buzz was “this is good.” 

Much has changed just in the past year, let alone the past ten years. After Trump was elected, Hollywood most definitely sided with the Democrats. It always had, of course, but now it was overt. There was simply no need to even consider that the other half of the country even exists because now there was a Cold Civil War with them on one side and Hollywood on the other. You might not really understand just how bad it is unless you drift outside of the bubble on the Left, which is social media and media that kind of agrees with itself all of the time and keeps out any messaging that might disrupt the balance of the status quo.

To many who read my site, my even discussing things that are off-limits is shocking. There is a whole Reddit thread called “What happened to blogger Sasha Stone?” I know it’s shocking to have one’s idea of reality disrupted to the point where they have no choice but to believe you are somehow corrupted because you are talking to the enemy, or you’re trying to understand where they’re coming from, or attempting to see seeing things from their points of view.

I did it for different reasons than understanding how Americans broadly see Hollywood and the Oscars. But in so doing, I got a pretty good education of what people think about Hollywood who are inside of the bubble of the Left and people who are outside of it. These are very different realities. I think most people on the Left genuinely believe they are “good” and the other side is “bad.” But the problem is that they then have to tell stories that will either resonate universally or won’t. If you are seeking to make movies for the people inside the bubble, those movies are going to seem like they exist on another planet to the people outside of it.

Conversely, a movie that appeals more broadly may or may not appeal to the people who dominate film coverage or film criticism, or even people who make movies now. Can you imagine, for instance, anyone outside of the bubble of Film Twitter watching Don’t Look Up? What would be their motivation for doing so? All of the stars involved have high-profile social media accounts that broadcast their political perspectives such that it’s almost impossible to see them as separate from our politicians. People outside the bubble know the movie is supposedly a message to them about climate change starring extremely politically left celebrities — they already know in advance what that movie is going to be about. Or they fear what they think it might be about.

That’s the problem for Hollywood now, I think. They have, to an extent, burned their credibility somewhat, such that audiences are hesitant to watch movies if they think there is going to be a message in them on how to live better, be better, think better, act better. I don’t think anyone particularly likes that kind of sanctimonious movie unless they are true believers in the cause. I know plenty of people on the Left who quietly avoid Hollywood — and especially “Oscar” movies — for that reason. The problem is that dissent is mostly frowned upon so no one really gets the truth.

But box office tells the tale.

I used to think branding was the worst thing to ever happen to American, or any other, culture. I used to lament a whole generation being raised on nothing but branding. I remember what life was like before brands overtook every area of American life, from restaurants to toys to Halloween costumes and to movies. But I have a different perspective on it now. We have become so divided we almost can’t talk to each other. If all of Hollywood sits on one side and half the country sits on the other, that limits Hollywood’s reach. Now, it seems like the movies Oscar rewards really does exist in an ever-insular bubble. That is not only hurting ratings, but it is making the Oscars less important, less valued.

Here’s the good news, though: brands are an unexpectedly unifying force in a time of great division, and no brand brings people together from everywhere, in this country and elsewhere, like Marvel. While it’s true that many familiar brands in this country have opted out of a unifying message and have mostly decided to cast their lot with what they believe is the more profitable side of the aisle, Marvel didn’t. Spider-Man hasn’t.

No movie that made $260 million on opening weekend is dividing audiences. It isn’t alienating anyone, except maybe the high-minded film folks who value critically-acclaimed fare, or those in Hollywood who still chafe at the idea of superhero movies taking over Hollywood. But you know what? They have.

The best stuff right now is being done on television. Long form on cable or streaming. That is where experimentation is taking place. That is where the best comedy lives. That is where any kind of subversive work can be shown. The challenge for Hollywood, I think, isn’t to hope people still come see their movies, like The Last Duel, King Richard, Nightmare Alley, and West Side Story. I wish people had gone to see those movies. But I think there are other factors now keeping people at home, which is partly to do with the abundance of offerings AT HOME, but it’s also COVID fear, inflation, and yes, political division.

The challenge now is simply this: can Hollywood make movies people want to see? Can they somehow remember that they don’t only exist for one portion of American culture? Can activists find a way to be more inclusive rather than exclusive in their social media profiles? I do not think they can, but I think it’s possible to put people in movies who will be more broadly appealing.

In other words, I think there is a way out of this mess — but it won’t come without a major reset, in the country and in Hollywood.

All of this to say, of course, is that Spider-Man: No Way Home should be a Best Picture contender. This is a no-brainer. I don’t know if it will be nominated, but it should be nominated. Not because of the money. And not because of the ratings. But because a movie with that good of critical reviews, that great of audience reviews, and with that kind of box office success is the very definition of a “high achievement.”

The Oscar game, one that I helped launch over 20 years ago, has become a well-oiled machine. It didn’t use to be that the people who covered the Oscars micromanaged them this closely, but that is what they do now. It is easy to play this game. You just go along with what everyone else is saying, and just like that you have a pre-planned, pre-packaged Oscar game. But it has made for a very dull affair, so much so that by the end of it all, people are left thinking: “Really? This is it?”

When we think of the award for Best Picture of the Year, we are supposed to be thinking about the most successful film on every level. Back when the Oscars were invented and through most of their history, Best Picture went to the producer(s) because ideally, they’d made the best movie that crowds and critics loved. Critics were secondary to crowds. Having a hit really mattered. But we know it no longer does.

The Oscars don’t have to be a stomachache. They don’t have to be a somber march towards inevitability. They can still be fun. Movies can still be fun. All we have to do is remember that they’re supposed to be fun.