‘Twas the Oscar Squad Before Christmas…

This is our final Oscar Squad for calendar year 2021.

We’ve seen Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and major critics groups weigh in. We’ve also seen the public weigh in with box office returns, and many Oscar-whispered films have underperformed, to say the least. Will the holiday corridor improve their financial positions? That feels unlikely as Marvel’s Spider-Man: No Way Home seems destined to soak up all available movie screens in the country, feeding the seemingly insatiable appetite for Marvel superhero films. Will Spider-Man factor into the Best Picture lineup after critical acclaim, an A+ Cinemascore, and record-setting box office, pandemic be damned? As of now, only Sasha is predicting it, but the opening of the Best Picture lineup to 10 films was always designed to reward more audience friendly pictures. Will Spidey benefit from that?

At any rate, these events have all impacted the Squaddies, and our charts remain largely unchanged. Sure, there are a few shifts here and there, but we’ve only really seen one major change since our last publication.

Benedict Cumberbatch overtakes presumed Oscar front-runner Will Smith in the Best Actor race.

That is, in the eyes of the Oscar Squad. Why the shift? Well, Cumberbatch has performed very well in critics awards, but critics aren’t Academy members. Even though King Richard performed well in the Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations, buzz for Smith’s performance seems to have diminished significantly. But would Smith have ever been ahead at this moment in the Oscar race? Wait for SAG and BAFTA to weigh in, although the latter may benefit Cumberbatch more than Smith. See last year’s Best Actor race…

Here are the latest charts. We probably won’t weigh in again until after the currently scheduled Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards in 2022. Assuming the Omicron variant doesn’t impact those schedules either.