Predictions Friday: A Consensus Forms

I’d like to introduce you to a concept called “bubble move.” I first heard that on an All-In podcast talking about Joe Rogan and Spotify. A “bubble move,” according to Paypal and Callin founder David Sacks, is when a company does something that pleases the bubble (subscribers, supporters, readers) but to the majority outside the bubble, it looks like they’ve lost their minds. Joe Rogan has 11 million listeners per episode on Spotify compared to the small but vocal minority that dominates the Twitter narrative which drives the media cycle. In 2019 that stat was 10% of the users control 80% of the content. Now, the stat has changed to 10% of users controlling 90% of the content. That, my friends, is what you call a bubble.

Unfortunately, the media continues to suckle from that tiny bubble of Twitter, which is leading to many problems in our culture, politically, and otherwise, but that’s a different story.

Oscar content right now is, give or take an outsider voice or two, I’d say 99% bubble driven. That means predictions mostly follow along the lines prescribed by the bubble. The bubble, for instance, thought Green Book winning was tantamount to World War III. The bubble also firmly believed Chadwick Boseman would have to win Best Actor last year. He did not. The bubble thought Mank wasn’t going to win Cinematography. But it did. Now that COVID has gripped the industry and put everything online, it’s even harder to tell what is in the bubble and what isn’t.

Nothing is more bubble-move seeming, at least to me, than the underestimation of Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast. Now, granted, this is COVID-times so the bubble could be more right than wrong, stats are all over the place this year, and things feel very out of whack. However, let’s just take this one particular stat: the Toronto People’s Choice Award stat.

Quick, can you name the last time the People’s Choice winner went home empty-handed at the Oscars? Let’s go through them. Since they expanded the ballot at the Oscars (prior to 2007, the TIFF Audience award did not really match up much with the Oscars, I think because of how the date shifted the race).

2020-Nomadland – Picture, Director, Actress
2019-Jojo Rabbit – Screenplay
2018-Green Book – Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor
2017-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Actress, Supporting Actor
2016-La La Land – Director, Actress, Cinematography, Score, Production Design
2015-Room – Actress
2014-The Imitation Game – Screenplay
2012-Silver Linings Playbook – Actress
2011-Where Do We Go Now <——–
2010-The King’s Speech – Picture, Actor, Screenplay,
2009-Precious — Supporting Actress, Screenplay

I don’t usually score as high as Anne Thompson or Joyce Eng over at Gold Derby, but they have Licorice Pizza winning Original Screenplay based on its strength overall, which would mean a shut-out for Belfast. A few have Belfast, like Clayton Davis and Perri Nemiroff. Granted, Licorice Pizza wasn’t at Toronto, so it could not compete against Belfast. The Power of the Dog came in third place there (as Parasite did in 2019), which is substantial. But here’s the thing, Belfast has the same strength as Pizza if not more. It has the SAG ensemble nomination, for one thing. And it has two acting nominations where Pizza doesn’t have any. Maybe that matters, maybe it doesn’t, but I find it odd.

I bring this up because the oddsmakers now are mirroring the consensus based on the bubble. Now, it’s possible that this is exactly how the Oscars will roll out, that voting across the board will mirror what the pundits believe. I am not so sure, and I personally think Belfast is being greatly underestimated because it reflects bubble thinking, not what a larger consensus, or broader majority might think.

For instance, look at the critic/audience score for Belfast vs Licorice Pizza at RT:

Here is what the latest oddsmakers Jimmy Shapiro’s rankings for Vegas bets:

Of course, odds just measure consensus, and that consensus is not based on anything yet since we’ve not gotten the major guilds ringing in. But so far, we don’t have anything to indicate Belfast is not beloved among many out there except the bubble of Twitter where they are targeting it in the usual way. 1) It’s directed by a while male which is basically like the worst possible thing you could be for Film Twitter unless your name is Paul Thomas Anderson. 2) It was the frontrunner heading out of Telluride, which means they would target it regardless because they always do, even going all the way back to 12 Years a Slave, which Film Twitter actively tried to sabotage it heading out of festival season (it’s hard to believe but trust me, that happened). There is a stigma attached to the Oscar frontrunner, at least where Film Twitter is concerned, and you can really see that playing out with Belfast right now.

Still, the movie is one of the few truly joyous experiences people are going to have watching any of these ten. True, a large portion of this country has yet to see it. But when they do, they will recognize it as a movie that most people can enjoy. It might not be something like The Power of the Dog, Drive my Car, or Licorice Pizza, which enthralls the critics to the extreme, but it is more in keeping with the kinds of films that do well with a consensus. Then again, as Clarence Moye pointed out to me that consensus might be changing.

Thing is, where your expectations are when you see a movie influences how you watch that movie. If you hear a film is critically acclaimed your expectations will be high. If you hear a bunch of people on Film Twitter are calling Belfast a catastrophe of epic proportions, then your expectations might be low, and you will likely enjoy the movie more.

But remember, the Oscar race is fluid, not static. It is a living organism that responds to attacks and momentum shifts based on wins. Yes, Twitter has a gigantic microphone, hellscape that it is, and that, right now, will definitely impact the race. Since no one sees Belfast as a threat, we haven’t yet seen the rash of think pieces that arise with any movie that doesn’t have “protection” from the Twitter mob. What is protection? Well, it helps if you are female, a woman of color, or a person of color. Cisgender white men are at the bottom of the power pyramid (unless your name is Paul Thomas Anderson). Protection just means people don’t have the balls to attack you for fear of being called an “ist” or a “phobe.” How that will play out with a much larger consensus of thousands? Well, I guess we’ll find out.

The Producers Guild should tell us a lot with Best Picture, or so we might think. We assume the race is down to The Power of the Dog vs. Belfast. If anything else wins the PGA, then we are in a weird place because now we will have a different winner for the PGA and the DGA and the SAG (since Power of the Dog is not nominated there), and that might put us in 2015 territory where The Revenant won the Globe, the Big Short won the PGA, and Spotlight won the SAG and the Oscar. Or 2013 where 12 Years a Slave won the Globe, tied the PGA with Gravity, Gravity won the DGA, American Hustle won the SAG, and 12 Years won at the Oscars.

Basically, if Power of the Dog wins the PGA, along with the Globe and the DGA we’re looking at a more likely Best Picture winner. That means it can win on the preferential ballot. But lest we forget, La La Land and 1917 both won the Globe, the PGA, and the DGA and lost the Oscar. Neither were SAG ensemble nominated.

This is a very weird year to be sure. What I think Belfast has going for it is that it is heartwarming and uplifting. That might sell right now. So is King Richard, it’s worth noting. And so are CODA and Licorice Pizza.

I just don’t think Belfast will go home empty-handed. Maybe it wins Supporting Actor, maybe it wins Screenplay, maybe it wins Picture, maybe it wins Song. Who knows. Either way, I’m a stubborn old goat so let’s have at it with my predictions.

Take all of these with a huge grain of salt.

Best Picture
Belfast (Toronto audience winner, Globe Screenplay winner)
The Power of the Dog (Globe Picture/Director winner)
King Richard
Don’t Look Up
CODA
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
Dune
Nightmare Alley
Drive My Car

Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog, Jane Campion
CODA Screenplay, Siân Heder
Drive My Car Screenplay, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
Dune Screenplay, Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
The Lost Daughter, Maggie Gyllenhaal

Original Screenplay
Belfast, Kenneth Branagh (Globe winner)
Licorice Pizza, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Worst Person, the World, Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
King Richard, Zach Baylin
Don’t Look Up , Adam McKay, David Sirota

Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard (Globe winner)
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Actress
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (Globe winner)
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Best Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (Globe winner)
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Best Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (Globe winner)
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

Best Cinematography
The Power of the Dog, Ari Wegner
Dune, Greig Fraser
Nightmare Alley, Dan Laustsen
The Tragedy of Macbeth, Bruno Delbonnel
West Side Story, Janusz Kaminski

Best Costume Design
Cruella, Jenny Beavan
Cyrano, Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
Dune, Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
Nightmare Alley, Luis Sequeira
West Side Story, Paul Tazewell

Best Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul
Flee
Ascension
Attica
Writing with Fire

Documentary Short
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Audible
Lead Me Home

Best Editing
Dune, Joe Walker
The Power of the Dog, Peter Sciberras
King Richard, Pamela Martin
Don’t Look Up, Hank Corwin
tick, tick…BOOM! Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

International Feature
Drive My Car, Japan
Flee, Denmark
The Hand of God, Italy
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, Bhutan
The Worst Person in the World, Norway

Makeup and Hairstyling
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune

Original Score
Dune Hans, Zimmer
Encanto, Germaine Franco
Don’t Look Up, Nicholas Britell
Parallel, Mothers Alberto Iglesias
The Power of the Dog, Jonny Greenwood

Original Song
No Time To Die from No Time to Die, Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
Be Alive from King Richard, DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
Down To Joy from Belfast, Van Morrison
Dos Oruguitas from Encanto, Lin-Manuel Miranda
Somehow You Do from Four Good Days, Diane Warren

Best Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Best Animated Short Film
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet

Best Live Action Short
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
The Long Goodbye
The Dress
On My Mind
Please Hold

Best Sound
Dune
Belfast
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

Visual Effects
Dune
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings