Predictions Friday – Strong Performances Land in Fests

Jordan Ruimy is reporting that there’s a small chance Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers might get a qualifying run by year’s end. “Might.” I would be very excited about this, as not only is Sideways one of my favorite films of all time, my daughter and I have made it a family tradition to watch the movie and then drive up to Sideways country, the Santa Ynez Valley — Solvang, Buellton, etc. If The Holdovers does join the fray, I think it’s potentially a game-changer. At least to my mind, as I’m such an Alexander Payne fan. I really do love most of. his films but Sideways is right up there with the best films ever made.

We haven’t yet seen what is on offer in Toronto, or New York, or at AFI. I can, however, see that the films in Telluride at least are the first crop of movies born out of post-2020 cultural revolution on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion mandates. Although the Academy guidelines haven’t been formally put in place yet (that will happen in 2024) it seems clear, at least to me, that studios already have many of those policies in place. They are making sure they meet the expectations, either with casting or storytelling or filmmakers.

I think there might be some movies that are in the race this year without such representation — perhaps coming from other countries where they are not as closely monitored to make sure they don’t break any rules. But the ones I saw, without exception, were films that either brought in an aspect of racism, or an LGBTQ element. I bring this up because it was noticeable to me. It is a taboo subject to even bring up but it is hard to analyze the Oscars without commenting on what has changed.

I’m not saying this is a bad thing. It’s just noticeable. Armageddon Time is based on a true story of two kids growing up together. One is Black and the other white. It illustrates the differences in their trajectories. One is supported, ushered through towards the success, the other is given no good path to success and seems to be pushed into crime as the only option. This works very well, I thought, not just because it’s true but because there is value there beyond preaching to the audience. It really does do what many are trying to do — show the disparity between black and white in America.

In Empire of Light, Michael Ward plays a Black immigrant and thus, is mocked and abused by racists and nationalists in a seaside town in 1980s England. But that’s a backstory to the main story – and thus, some critics have said it felt “performative,” as he was really the stand-in for Sam Mendes. This movie was also based on his upbringing.

Now we have two movies dealing with race as a part of the story and to point out the ignorance of the past. And both also nod casually to Trump and his supporters (which bothers me personally but I know most others don’t feel that way). I figure, this is going to be how films reflect the era we just lived through.

Meanwhile, in Women’s Talking there is a transgender character in the film (who does not appear in the book) and there is perhaps unnatural acceptance of gender ideology exhibited in a community that wouldn’t ordinarily be amenable, to put it politely.

TÁR features a gay woman in the lead role who has a predator’s eye for promising young women. She is also someone who arrogantly slams “cancel culture,” or dismisses complaints of Generation-Z’s perception of “old, cis-gendered white composers.” Then the movie sets about punishing her for speaking out against that mindset.

These are just some examples of probably what will become a bit of a trend, or a running theme in movies coming up. I think there must be some sort of diversity coordinator, like an intimacy coordinator, behind the scenes making sure there is enough representation in any movie, but especially those earmarked for Oscar. I have no idea if that’s true. No one is going to ask that question or do that research. They just don’t want to be screamed at by Twitter.

Critics seem to be coming down harder on some movies for what David Carr would have called “stunt casting,” and they go easy on some other movies perceived to achieve the same goal more smoothly. Perhaps it just depends on whether or not the changes feel organic or performative.

Where many movie-goers are concerned, there is already a backlash brewing against what they think of as politically-oriented, or “woke” movies coming out of Hollywood. And then a backlash against the backlash. I have a feeling this is going to be a fairly heated topic (outside of the Film Twitter bubble, that is).

Let’s get on with it, shall we?

What has popped so far? Let’s start with impressions in Venice.

Best Actor
Brendan Fraser, The Whale (great performance, so-so movie)
Hugh Jackman, The Son (great performance, so-so movie)
Colin Farrell, Banshees of Inisherin (great performance, they say great movie)

Best Actress
Ana de Armas, Blonde (great performance, so-so movie)
Cate Blanchett, TÁR (great performance, most say great movie)

Then we get to Telluride, which added:

Best Actor
Michael Ward, Empire of Light (great performance, I say great movie)
Bill Nighy, Living

Best Actress
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (great performance, I say great movie)
Rooney Mara, Women Talking

Supporting Actor
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time
Jaylin Webb, Armageddon Time

Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Claire Foy, Women Talking

Anne Thompson has dropped a fresh batch of predictions:

August 29  – Best Picture
September 7 – Best Actor
September 7 – Best Actress
September 8 – Best Supporting Actor
September 8 – Best Supporting Actress

Toronto is going to screen a great many movies none of us has yet seen, and if it’s true that The Holdovers might be coming out this year instead of being held over, then that’s great news but it will be something we have to wait for.

I still think some of the best movies of the year won’t play at the festivals. Top Gun Maverick has made $700 million, Elvis has made $150 million and Everything Everywhere All at Once has made $70 million.

In any kind of sane film industry, all three would be up for Best Picture, regardless of whether the people in First Class can appreciate their success. It matters that they made money, especially now when theaters are in such danger of bankruptcy.

To that end, I offer up a pre-Toronto list for the fun of it — to be taken with a huge grain of salt, as in the blind leading the blind. It’s obviously almost a waste of time to even post these, but hey, it’s Friday. As my dad would say, “what else have you got to do?”

Best Picture (in alpha order)
Armageddon Time
Avatar: Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
The Greatest Beer Run Ever
TÁR
Women Talking
Alts: Top Gun Maverick, The Banshees of Inershirin, She Said, The Woman King, Wakanda Forever

Best Director
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Jim Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Todd Field, TÁR
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Alts. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light, Baz Luhrmann, Elvis, The Daniels, Everything Everywhere

Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Hugh Jackman, The Son
Zac Efron, The Greatest Beer Run Ever
Alts. Michael Ward, Empire of Light, Adam Driver, White Noise, Colin Farrell, Banshees of Inisherin

Best Actress
Michelle Yeoh, Everything, Everywhere All At Once
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Alts. Rooney Mara, Women Talking, Viola Davis, The Woman King

Best Supporting Actor
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Toby Jones, Empire of Light
Alts. Jaylin Webb, Armageddon Time, Tom Hanks, Elvis, Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actress
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time
Alts: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Nina Hoss, TÁR, Laura Dern, The Son

Cinematography
Babylon
Empire of Light
Bardo
Avatar: Way of Water
Everything Everywhere All at Once

Final point: I do think that CODA won last year more because it was an uplifting story and not a political lecture, and it didn’t take itself too seriously. Yes, that they were making history with a predominantly deaf cast added to it, but in general, when times are tough voters tend to reach for things that make them feel good. Many of the movies dropped into Oscar season tend to not be all that feelgood. I’m not even sure how many of these movies end on an uplifting note. I would definitely keep an eye on any movies that make people happy.