2023 Emmy Nominations: Where We Stand Five Months Into the Season

Shortly after the 2022 Emmy Awards ceremony, we here at Awards Daily started looking forward to next year’s Emmy ceremony. We have been updating the Emmy Tracker on the right-hand side of ADTV each Friday since, and it hasn’t been easy. The Emmy eligibility window runs from June 1 through May 31 of the following year. While there have been some Emmy-worthy series airing on the various platforms we consume, the competition is fairly thin at this early stage in the game.

But it’s very early, of course. Generally, the Television Academy’s memory doesn’t extend into the previous summer. There are exceptions (Succession, Ted Lasso premiered Emmy-winning seasons in late summer), but most slots are filled with series premiering in the fall or later. We haven’t seen the newest season of The White Lotus or The Crown yet. Next year brings The White House Plumbers, Barry, Succession, and many more high profile titles.

Still, we do have nomination slots seemingly tied up right now already. Here are a handful of major series that have already placed a significant claim on next year’s Emmy nominations. We’ll keep updating the Emmy Tracker each Friday as new titles debut.

House of the Dragon

Any 2023 Emmy conversation that excludes HBO’s Game of Thrones prequel series House of the Dragon is simply wrong. Granted, before the series premiered, a few of us held our collective breaths to see if the bad taste left in some viewers’ mouths from the final season of its predecessor would keep audiences away from House of the Dragon. However, early social media buzz surprisingly showed a hunger for a return trip to Westeros, and since then, the series has broken all kinds of HBO ratings records. At one point, the series averaged 29 million viewers a week, a huge number that no one should ignore.

Plus, the series is actually very, very good, and so far, it keeps getting better. Last night’s episode, “The Lord of the Tides,” built suspense and dread over something as simple as a family dinner. Granted, the “family” in question is the Targaryen dynasty, but still, it was supposed to be a simple dinner. Those watching the series are totally hooked, and it will, I suspect, resonate with the Television Academy in a way that another critically acclaimed prequel series (Better Call Saul) hasn’t necessarily. That series will factor into the 2023 Emmy conversation thanks to six episodes that premiered in this eligibility year. But will it break its curse and actually win anything (save two short form Emmys)?

With House of the Dragon, nominations for Drama Series, Direction, Writing, and a host of crafts (maybe not cinematography) are guaranteed. The true test of Targaryen Emmy supremacy will come in the acting races. Initially, I didn’t think anyone would be nominated as there wasn’t a Peter Dinklage-level fan favorite performance. Then, as I progressed into the series, I thought Matt Smith’s villainous Daemon would be the fun nomination, particularly since he’s been recognized by the Television Academy before for The Crown. Then, we were confused by whether or not any of the actresses would factor into nominations as the series gained in popularity. Bids for Emma D’Arcy, Olivia Cooke, Milly Alcock, or Emily Carey are complicated by the fact that they essentially split the season. No one is eligible (yet) for the Guest categories as they in theory appear in half of the episodes (the Guest rule requires an actor to appear in one less than half of the Emmy-eligible season). If the Television Academy LOVES the show, then nominations for D’Arcy, Cooke, Alcock, or Carey would be increasingly likely and in that order.

After last night’s episode, though, the most likely nomination may be King Viserys himself, Paddy Considine. His arc over the course of eight episodes may be the most compelling and emotional of the first season. Plus, it’s the great irony of the series that his strongest asset as a leader (as a king, he’s weak-willed and indecisive) is holding the Targeryan family together as long as he did. After last night’s episode, it became devastatingly clear that his final words would set into motion the civil war that ultimately destroys Targaryen dominance. It was an incredibly tricky (and increasingly grotesque) arc to pull off, but Considine aced the role and may indeed be the freshman season’s sole acting nomination.

The Bear

FX’s The Bear is an interesting case. It’s a half-hour drama series that, in its scant 30 weekly minutes, packs as much dramatic impact as any hour-long series. For that reason alone, I do believe The Bear will factor into the 2023 Emmy race in some fashion (even if the hyperbole around it being the best series of the last ten years is a bit much). Will it receive a series nomination? Right now, we’re predicting three slots locked up for House of the Dragon, Better Call Saul, and likely The Handmaid’s Tale. That leaves five remaining slots. Can The Bear fill one of those? It entirely depends on how many of last year’s Drama Series nominees return with an unexpected new season. We know The Crown season five will premiere in November, so there’s a likely fourth slot sewed up. Will Euphoria or Severance or Yellowjackets surprise with new seasons? We know that the Netflix trio of Squid Game, Ozark, and Stranger Things will not be returning. Dragon takes one of those slots, so depending on the number of new additional series premiering next year, it seems very possible that The Bear does indeed fall into Drama Series. Certainly a writing nomination is guaranteed, if not direction. In the acting races, we’re predicting Jeremy Allen White as most likely to receive Emmy attention with Aya Edebiri and Ebon Moss-Bachrach in the conversation as well.

Dahmer

The most fascinating story of the 2023 Emmy season so far has to be Netflix’s Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story. The limited series premiered with little fanfare. There were no advanced screeners or press interviews, and it only debuted a trailer a week before the entire series dropped on Netflix. Even the title seemed to offer confusion as various campaigns referred to it differently. Critics also seemed to refuse to seriously consider the series with, to date, only 21 weighing in. However, audiences cannot get enough of this dark series. In terms of viewing hours, it remains second only to Stranger Things for the streamer. It has captured the zeitgeist and online buzz in a completely unexpected way and has many passionate supporters.

How will that translate into 2023 Emmy buzz? Limited Series is probably still a long shot as there are only five slots, and, honestly, it’s a very tough watch. I remain fascinated (and a little scared) by those who have been able to binge all ten episodes thus far. The best bets will likely be Emmy winner Evan Peters and Emmy nominee Niecy Nash-Betts in the Lead Actor and Supporting Actress races. Peters, in particular, gives a transformative performance, and the only thing that may work against him is the general repulsion around the persona of Jeffrey Dahmer. There is no question that he gives a great performance though.

Five Days At Memorial

Quietly debuting on AppleTV+ over late summer was John Ridley and Carlton Case’s Five Days at Memorial. The limited series offers a painstakingly honest depiction of a New Orleans hospital during Hurricane Katrina and the horrible aftermath when the levies broke, flooding the city. What starts as a disaster series finishes as a compelling police procedural of sorts, and I remain impressed at a number of high-bar feats this brilliant series pulls off. It gracefully depicts the horrible events with balance and honesty without fully taking a side. It also gives a voice to some of the 45 people who lost their lives in Memorial Hospital thanks to an extraordinarily complicated series of root causes ranging from government and bureaucratic failures to complete and total human exhaustion. I’ve never seen a limited series where even the most simple tasks seem Herculean. Across-the-board brilliant direction, writing, and acting bring it all home in the end. Nomination-wise, the series deserves bids for Limited Series, Direction, Writing, and Lead Actress for Vera Farmiga. Cherry Jones is also very strong in a supporting role. The series is one of the 2023 Emmy season’s Must Watches.

Comedy Series

Finally, in the comedy world, Only Murders in the Building and Abbott Elementary feel safe to repeat. Abbott seems likely to expand upon its 2022 nominations and wins and will hopefully receive a directing nomination that it lacked this year. Murders’ second season was just as much of a delight as its first season with Steve Martin, Martin Short, and Selena Gomez all giving great comic performances. Nominations for season two may not reach the heights of its freshman season though. I’m not sure as many people are talking about season two as they did with season one, likely because season one benefitted from the sense of discovery that sophomore seasons generally don’t have. There’s also critic favorite Atlanta that may also factor strongly into 2023 Emmy nominations thanks to a returned focus on the beloved main cast.

What have you seen this year that you think will factor into the 2023 Emmy Nominations? What changes would you recommend in the Emmy Tracker? Sound off in the comments below!