Oscars 2023: Best Picture

The best way to see Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin is to see it cold. The less you know about it, the better. Discovering the story, the characters, the dialogue, and the plot is what makes the experience of watching movies so richly rewarding and so much fun.

This featurette I think almost gives too much away, but it does set the stage of what to expect without completely spoiling it. It isn’t some raging whodunnit or surprise ending or anything like that. It’s a subtle, moody, funny mediation on human nature. And if it is not the best film of the year, then it is certainly one of them.

The truth of it is that great writing comes along so rarely now that I had almost forgotten it existed. We have so many directors who want to write their own screenplays (and writers who want to direct), but these two talents are rarely bestowed inequal measure to the same man. So usually have to work hard to lean into what filmmakers are trying to achieve and be patient with their efforts. Great writing and great directing are two different disciplines that require two different kinds of talent.

The list of those who can really do it well is very short. Martin McDonagh happens to be among the very few who is good at both. He’s also great with actors, and that’s key to the success of all of his films. He understands that acting is an instrument unto itself and that good writing in a film is only going to be as good as the actors are. If an actor doesn’t connect with the words it’s harder for them to convey the meaning of the text (which is why I personally am not fond of watching some actors perform Shakespeare — only a few seem to really understand what they’re saying).

Writers who have a strong sense of rhythm with dialogue (like McDonagh, like the Coen brothers) need actors who also understand the writing. David Mamet is a writer whose work always requires actors who know how to read and understand Mamet. Aaron Sorkin is another writer who is better off with actors who get him and his style, as well as working with directors who do (like David Fincher).

In The Banshees of Inisherin, McDonagh has assembled a team of actors at the absolute top of their game. This is the best acting, or certainly among the best, you’ll see this year. This is an ensemble who can not only master the thick Irish brogue but also Mcdonagh’s style, which is sometimes funny, and often sad. That makes watching this film effortless. You know you’re in the hands of absolute masters: a writer/director and actors who know exactly what they are doing, not a weak link in the bunch.

But beyond the mastery of it, which is significant, The Banshees of Inisherin does what we’ve needed for hundreds of years now as human beings: it tells a great story. Great stories are so few and far between now I almost forgot what it feels like to watch one. Movies now almost always have some sort of tense relationship with the audience. They’re usually attempting to fix you, the viewer, by messing with your expectations. Charlie’s Angels can’t be about sexy, glamorous women — they have to be empowered instead. Like, why?

It’s all become so CORRECT. So that we can all think CORRECTLY. Behave CORRECTLY. Be good. Be thought of as good. Always send the right message. But it isn’t that Banshees is an indictment of that kind of thinking. It’s revolutionary because it dares to just tell a good story, an involving story, an expansive story about human nature. How it gets there and what it says should be something you discover on your own, without me telling it to you. After the film opens (October 21), I will talk more freely about the subtle moments in the film that I think make it important, but I don’t want to spoil it here. Just to say that it is simple in its execution, complex and profound in its meaning.

Right now, there are a handful of films that would be the five Best Picture nominees of the year if we only had five nominees. But remember, actors rule the Academy. They comprise the biggest branch by far. Movies that win Best Picture are almost always larger ensembles that are actor-driven. They don’t really favor big spectacles to win, especially true now with ranked-choice voting for their top prize. With just five Best Picture contenders, it would be somewhat easier to build a consensus that rewards dazzling directing (La La Land) as opposed to character dramas (Moonlight).

We still have a few movies left to see, like Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, She Said, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. We have to set those aside just for the moment and look at what we have so far this year.

The Fabelmans
Best Director
Editing
Best Actress
Supporting Actor
Screenplay
Score
Cinematography
Production Design
Costumes
Hair & Makeup

The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Picture
Best Director
Original Screenplay
Editing
Actor
Supporting Actor X 2
Supporting Actress
Costumes
Production Design
Score

Everything, Everywhere All at Once
Picture
Actress
Supporting Actress
Original Screenplay
Production Design
Visual Effects
Hair & Makeup
Costumes
Editing

Women Talking
Best Picture
Maybe Best Director
Adapted Screenplay
Supporting Actress X2
Maybe Best Actress
Costumes
Production Design
Score

TÁR
Best Picture
Best Director
Original Screenplay
Actress
Maybe Supporting Actress
Maybe editing

Those are, I think, the strongest films right now heading in. The five other films that would make up a list of ten, without any of the upcoming films, would be in my opinion:

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Empire of Light
Till

That’s how I see it, give or take a Woman King. But we know that it’s not likely to end up this way because of the movies yet to premiere. She Said is going to be a major hurricane because the Weinstein trial is just getting underway. Harvey Weinstein being back in the news is going to suck up a lot of ink and drive box office for She Said, I figure.

Knives Out is going to be the first Netflix film widely distributed in movie theaters, and if it makes a lot of money it could also be a major player as one of the few “feel good” movies in the lineup.

We have to wait and see what Jim Cameron and Avatar are going to do to the box office. Can it overtake Top Gun: Maverick? Can it overtake the original Avatar?  And of course, Damien Chazelle’s Babylon looks like an epic the Academy will not be able to ignore.

Of all of these, the stealthy underdog here to watch for the wins in Original Screenplay, Picture, Actor, and Supporting Actor is, of course, The Banshees of Inisherin.

Best Actor is now likely between Colin Farrell, Austin Butler, and Brendan Fraser. These are no doubt great performances. It will come down to likability, where Farrell will likely have the thing sewn up. It’s too soon to be certain on anything in the Oscar race, but yes, Dave Karger was onto something in putting Farrell at number one. He’s so good in this that I forgot I was even watching an actor. Even now, 24 hours later, my heart aches for his character. And I know I won’t be alone in that.

Great storytelling works on us humans. It always has, and it always will. Apologies in advance to McDonagh and the whole team behind this wonderful film in what is about to happen over the next few months. The Oscar race has a way of diminishing art by turning it into a pissing contest of egos. I’m sure it will get ugly, especially if the film ever wins any major award (as it will with almost every movie that gets recognized).

Banshees of Inisherin gave me hope. It reminded me that there will always be a need for stories to be told, authentically and completely told.  Eventually, they will find their way through.