2023 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor

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In the last few days, we’ve seen some moves in the Best Actor race, which is far from settled. There are still some open questions with regard to the nominees. Where Best Actor and Best Supporting are concerned, they usually come from a film that was nominated for Best Picture.

As always, in terms of Oscar history we have to look at nominations when there were just five Best Picture nominees (1944-2009) and when there has been an expanded slate (2009-present). The way it seemed to work was that in the era of five Best Picture contenders, sweeps were much more likely. It was far more common for the Best Actor or the Supporting Actor winner (or both) to match Best Picture. Now, in the current era of the expanded ballot, it is rarer that both Best Actor or Best Supporting goes with Best Picture.

So far, we’ve had Best Actor match with Best Picture twice now and Best Supporting Actor match with Best Picture three times – and two of those times it was the same actor, Mahershala Ali. In the decades prior, however, it was quite common for Best Actor and Supporting to get swept up in the Best Picture win, Best Actor especially.

With the expanded ballot, voters like to split up the biggest prizes among the most popular films, which makes sweeps very unlikely now. That’s why you see Best Picture winners with such a low amount of Oscars. You can’t see any movie win like nine or ten Oscars anymore, not with the expanded ballot. Both Best Actor and Best Actress tend to be stand-alone wins for a film that people liked, just not enough to award it Best Picture.

But it still does help to be nominated for Best Picture, and that’s especially true with Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor.

So first, let’s head over to Erik Anderson at AwardsWatch for his Best Actor predictions:

1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24)
2. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros)
3. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Hugh Jackman – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
5. Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

And then he has:

6. Will Smith – Emancipation (Apple Original Films) ↑
7. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
8. Daniel Giménez Cacho – Bardo, or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↓
9. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) ↑
10. Tom Hanks – A Man Called Otto (Sony Pictures) ↑
11. Park Hae-il – Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↓
12. Daniel Craig – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ↓
13. Jeremy Pope – The Inspection (A24)
14. Adam Sandler – Hustle (Netflix) ♦
15. Song Kang-ho – Broker (NEON) ↓
16. Adam Driver – White Noise (Netflix)
17. Christian Bale – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix) ↑
18. Gabriel LaBelle – The Fabelmans (Universal Studios) ↓
19. Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ↑
20. Jim Parsons – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)

Erik has both his Best Actor and his Best Supporting Actor winners in potential Best Picture contenders. Going back to 2009, the only winner in either category that wasn’t in a Best Picture nominee was, of course, Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart. So that definitely fits. He also has his Best Picture winner different from either of those two wins: he has The Fabelmans as the favorite to win Best Picture. That also matches what we have in our charts from 2009 onward.

In general, what drives a Best Actor win is often the actor himself. It can be a celebration of his greatness overall (like, say, Daniel Day-Lewis), or it can be a win for a bravura performance crowning a diverse career in acting (Gary Oldman, for instance). Often, a Best Actor contender will be an actor who transforms himself completely. The level of difficulty, more so than the likability, often drives the win. For Best Actress that flips: likability often trumps level of difficulty. It is what it is.

Of the three frontrunners:
Brendan Fraser, The Whale — transforms into a 600 pound man.
Austin Butler, Elvis — transforms into the icon Elvis Presley
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin — transforms into a “dull” but sweet island dweller

Of the three, Banshees has the strongest Best Picture heat at the moment and will likely hit all of the major categories. That COULD give Farrell a leg up UNLESS Banshees of Inersherin becomes a Best Picture frontrunner. In that case, Farrell is less likely to win the top prize.

The Whale is getting mixed reviews. But Fraser is not. He seems to be receiving one standing ovation after another (being brought to tears every time) and is enjoying a career comeback. This is often the kind of story Oscar voters can’t resist. There is nothing like the feeling of having done a good deed with your vote. If you are standing up and he is tearing up — well, that will go a long way towards driving this win.

For Jeff Bridges in 2009, he really did work the circuit like no other. That win was not driven by his performance as Bad Blake. It was driven by his performance in The Big Lebowski more than anything because there is no separating the actor from that one role. He is so beloved, however, that every time he showed up at an event it was a good time. People loved seeing him around. They weren’t thinking about his performance when they checked the box. They were thinking about him. And so it might go with Brendan Fraser, even if the movie doesn’t become a favorite among voters.

Austin Butler would not have an “Oscar story” to go on. He would have to win purely on his performance, and perhaps love for Elvis Presley. If Elvis, say, makes it into the Musical/Comedy category at the Globes (it won’t get in with Drama probably) then that helps build momentum. Still, if Fraser is the emotional winner, then it might be slightly harder to make the case for Butler.

Farrell, of course, has a more than decent chance because of just how likable he is and how likable his character is. Overall goodwill could drive a win. The cast in Banshees is so good all around it might even win the SAG ensemble award, as Three Billboards did. Martin McDonagh has the one-two punch of great writing and working with actors really really well.

Beyond those three, what are some other actors in the mix potentially?

Bill Nighy, Living
Will Smith, Emancipation
Diego Calva, Babylon
Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye

Those are the strongest to my mind right now. That might change, obviously.

Meanwhile, the supporting win isn’t necessarily driven by the strength of the actor’s personal story, though sometimes it is (George Clooney in Syriana).

Sometimes Best Actor and Supporting Actor can come from the same movie, like Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club, which was also nominated for Best Picture.

Much of the time, the Supporting Actor starts winning and doesn’t stop. It does go with the Best Picture slightly more than Best Actor. But it’s very unlikely all three will win.

Here are Erik’s Supporting Actor predictions:

1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
2. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
3. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↑
5. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑

And then:

6. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↓
7. Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
8. Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse (Netflix) ↓
9. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓
10. Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
11. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple Original Films) ↑
12. Tom Hanks – Elvis (Warner Bros)
13. Mark Rylance – Bones and All (MGM/UAR) ↑
14. John Boyega – The Woman King (Columbia) ↓
15. Don Cheadle – White Noise (Netflix) ↑
16. Jeremy Strong – Armageddon Time (Focus Features) ↑
17. Raúl Castillo – The Inspection (A24) ♦
18. Stanley Tucci – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia Pictures) ↑
19. Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia Pictures)
20. Daniel Brühl – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

So here are his ten Best Picture contenders (From September)

1. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
4. Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
6. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
7. TÁR (Focus Features)
8. Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
9. The Whale (A24)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)

I like all of Erik’s picks except Ben Whishaw for Women Talking. I suppose it’s possible, but I don’t think he will bump Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans, even though that is almost a cameo. It’s still a great performance and more likable — star and role.

Just once in the era of the preferential ballot has the Best Actress winner matched with Best Supporting Actor (Three Billboards). It looks like Erik has both Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan winning for Everything, Everywhere All At Once. I suppose that could happen if both of the supporting actors from Banshees cancel each other out. Otherwise, they’re likely to win, either Brendan Gleeson or Barry Keoghan.

I also like Paul Dano for this win. It’s an understated work by him but it is probably my favorite performance of his to date.

With all of that said, here are my current predictions.

Best Picture
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Babylon
TÁR
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
Glass Onion

Alt: Elvis, The Son, The Whale, Emancipation, Empire of Light, The Woman King

Best Director
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere
Alt: Jim Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Actor
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler, Elvis
Will Smith, Emancipation
Bill Nighy, Living
Alt: Adam Driver, White Noise

Best Actress
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Alt: Olivia Colman, Empire of Light; Viola Davis, The Woman King; Zoe Kazan, She Said

Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Hong Chau, The Whale
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Alt: Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion; Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere; Laura Dern, The Son

Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Alt: Micheal Ward, Empire of Light; Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time; Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Babylon
Alt: Empire of Light, Elvis

Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
She Said
Glass Onion
The Whale
The Son

Editing
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inersherin
The Fabelmans
Babylon
Alt: Avatar: The Way of Water

Cinematography
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Babylon
Bardo
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Alt: The Fabelmans, All Quiet on the Western Front, Empire of Light

Sound
Top Gun Maverick
Elvis
Babylon
Wakanda Forever
Avatar: The Way of Water
Alt: All Quiet on the Western Front

Production Design
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Babylon
Bardo
Alt: Avatar: The Way of Water

Costumes
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Babylon

Documentary Feature
In Her Hands
Goodnight Oppy
Sidney
Fire of Love
Icarus: The Aftermath
Alt: Riotsville, USA; SR.

That’s it, for now. All to be taken with a grain of salt.

And now, the charts — thanks to Marshall for helping me with them.