AFI Preview and Predictions

Tomorrow, the AFI will drop their top ten for the year, which will continue to shape our Oscar race as it goes along. Here is how Best Picture has shaken out for the past four years:

Now that the Academy has an even ten nominees instead of a random number between 5 and 10, we should expect a better match. In 2010 they matched 9/10, though the year before, in 2009, it was less:

The AFI voting members are a small handful of critics, industry people and tastemakers. It functions like a poll of sorts for the Academy. There are several questions to answer – like whether or not Babylon makes it in, or Avatar: The Way of Water. But just because something doesn’t get in here doesn’t mean it won’t land in Best Picture at the Oscars.

Given that, this is how we expect it will go:

Sasha Stone
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Nope
Till
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking

Ryan Adams
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Nope
She Said
TÁR
Till
Women Talking

Mark Johnson
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Avatar: The Way of Water
Women Talking
TÁR
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Emancipation
She Said
Babylon

Marshall Flores
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion
Nope
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking

Clarence Moye
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking