Twitter does seem to be its own ecosphere when it comes to the Oscars. Sometimes it matches reality, sometimes it doesn’t. The shortlists from the Academy caused much upset among fans of various films, but especially for that special favorite, Everything Everywhere All at Once. It missed out on Hairstyling and Makeup, along with Visual Effects. Does that mean much? Well, it’s hard to say. All Quiet on the Western Front did exceptionally well. Readers of this site know we’ve been hitting this one hard as one of the best films of the year and a stone cold masterpiece.
But just because a film does well on the shortlists for crafts doesn’t necessarily mean it’s an Oscar frontrunner. Actors still drive the thing, so what they fall in love with is usually what wins, for better or worse. EEAAO remains in our number one spot right now just based on critics awards and nomination strength. But there’s an elephant in the room with this film that may or may not matter.
The good: it’s inventive and interesting enough that it made a lot of money in theaters. It made around $60 million which, for an arthouse movie, or even an “Oscar movie” is really good. It is definitely in the wheelhouse of Academy members of late, meaning it “ticks the boxes” of what it is they seek (of late). It revolves around a woman of color, has an LGBTQIA storyline, is inclusive in every way imaginable, and even has a white woman as the main villain.
Beyond that it reflects the ideology of today’s left-leaning sophisticates. It’s also (for many people) fun, lively, original, vibrant, interesting. When you compare that to the kind of branded entertainment that gets made over and over again, you see one potential future for Hollywood that isn’t a superhero movie franchise.
The bad: for many it’s a rough sit. It took me several times to get through it because I wasn’t trapped in a theater. It does calm down at some point and settle into something relatively lovely. It’s mind-blowing in its own way, if you are in the mood to have your mind blown. Like a lot of movies this year, it isn’t easy on the eye. It’s like filming yourself on the egg-beater ride at the carnival, which is probably the point. That makes it divisive, very likely, which means it might have trouble on a preferential ballot.
On the other hand, much of the time voters in the Academy seem to want to do some “good” with their vote. They might not even watch the movie but like what it stands for, what it represents and will push it to the top of their ballot anyway. It’s not going to be a movie people HATE, which is what causes a film to lose when it is divisive. Is it the only movie voters can 1) rally around, and 2) feel good about having that movie represent who they are?
Does your average actor want to promote having voted for this movie? Actors are image-conscious and most are activists politically and in every other way. They need their vote to count, to matter. They don’t seem, at least in the last few years, to be voting for movies they just like. There has to be something more. That “something more” is the key to all of this.
So in a sense I agree with our friend Jason here:
What makes me slightly more hesitant to predict it to win across the board is the movie itself. Can anyone sit down in front of it and get it, if not love it? I don’t think so. I think it is a movie for a specific kind of person. Will they vote for it to get Film Twitter off their backs and avoid those agonizing think pieces scolding them for their choices? Maybe.
But then the question arises, if not that movie, which movie? You have to answer the question: what will unite voters behind a common cause and what will that cause be? I sense there is still a race for Best Picture, with Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans very much still in it. I also think there is a scenario where Top Gun: Maverick could win. If so, that would mean a sea change for the Academy and for Hollywood.
Babylon’s reception is odd. The voters have kept it alive on the shortlists, but the reviews have been mixed to negative. So that one is a mystery as to where it will land.
Best Picture:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Elvis
TÁR
Avatar: The Way of Water
All Quiet the Western Front
Babylon
My next tier:
She Said
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Empire of Light
RRR
Aftersun
Triangle of Sadness
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo
Thirteen Lives
The Whale
Best Director:
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jim Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Alt: Todd Field, TAR; Sarah Polley, Women Talking; Rian Johnson, Glass Onion; Damien Chazelle, Babylon; Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King; S. S. Rajamouli, RRR
Best Actor:
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Alt: Will Smith, Emancipation; Diego Calva, Babylon; Adam Driver, White Noise
Best Actress:
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Alt: Viola Davis, The Woman King; Margot Robbie, Babylon
Supporting Actress:
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Angela Bassett, Wakanda Forever
Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere
Alt: Claire Foy, Women Talking
Supporting Actor:
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Alt: Brad Pitt, Babylon; Micheal Ward, Empire of Light; Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Original Screenplay:
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All At Once
TÁR
Elvis
Alt: Armageddon Time, Babylon, Vengeance, Empire of Light
Adapted Screenplay:
Women Talking
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
The Son
Editing:
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Alt: Elvis, Babylon
Cinematography:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Bardo
Alt: The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light
Sound:
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Production Design:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Babylon
Pinocchio
Alt: Bardo, The Fabelmans
Costume Design:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Wakanda Forever
The Woman King
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Alt: Living
International Feature:
Germany, All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, Argentina, 1985
South Korea, Decision to Leave
Belgium, Close
Mexico, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Makeup and Hairstyling:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Original Score:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Women Talking
Visual Effects:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever