Because of the way things have gone lately in the past two or three years, we’re in uncharted territory. I will attempt to explain a theory of mine that is somewhat controversial. By that, I mean no one cares about it even a little bit. No one notices it. No one talks about it. No one cares about it. I seem to be the only person who has ever discussed it. Considering that the coverage of the Oscars has now become a bigger industry than the Oscars themselves, that’s saying a lot. No one cares about it even a little bit? NOPE.
I’m talking about “the date change.” To me, two things influence the Oscar race: the voting window and the order of the awards. These two concepts directly relate to two other concepts that I believe are the most important when it comes to predicting or analyzing the Oscar race: human nature and the consensus.
My old friend David Carr used to love the analogy I would sometimes use of Oscar voting being like fertility tracking. If you’re trying to get pregnant, you know that you can do all of these things in advance of the fertility window — but none of it really matters because ultimately it’s about those few days a month when an egg can be fertilized.
In the case of the Oscar race, months of preparation, publicity, interviews, red carpet appearances, social media posts, scandals and controversy, good news and bad news, talk show appearances, news stories, critics awards, award shows — it all leads up to that tiny window where the voters vote.
The date of the Oscars does matter. When I first started, the Oscars were held in late March. There wasn’t a whole industry around them like there is now. I was part of that industry that tracked awards all year, not just in February and March, like it used to be. That means that movies were released to the public and their success was measured by how many people saw the movies.
At some point, though, opening weekend box office became the measure of success. If a film couldn’t “open,” it would be done when it came to the Oscars. That sometimes still happens. It happened this cycle with She Said, where its disappointing box office all but snuffed out its awards prospects.
The Academy made the decision to shift the date up by one month, from late March to late February. That meant the whole season had to be shifted forward, with the earliest awards coming in late November. That meant it didn’t really matter whether a film did well at the box office — the awards race would now mostly be decided at film festivals, at screenings, and at parties.
Usually, the whole thing would be coming to an end right now. Oscar Sunday would be this Sunday. Instead, we’re getting the Producers Guild and the SAG Awards this weekend.
Oscar voting starts in one week and lasts from March 2nd to March 7th. Theoretically, there is enough time for a consensus shift. That only happens if people don’t feel good about the frontrunner winning. They sometimes want to find an alternative. This is how Parasite beat 1917 and how CODA beat The Power of the Dog, not to mention Green Book beating Roma. Figuring out what movie people don’t want to vote for is often as useful as figuring out what they DO want to vote for.
And that’s where human nature comes in. This is, by far, the hardest part of figuring out how the Oscars are going to go. This weekend will give us a good idea about where the consensus is right now. If any other film wins the PGA or SAG ensemble than Everything Everywhere All at Once, then we might have a race for Best Picture.
We’re also heading into the SAG Awards not knowing how the acting categories are going to go. It’s not a straight line either. Just because someone wins the SAG doesn’t mean they will go on to win the Oscar. We’ve seen too many surprise winners at the Oscars to depend too much on the SAG.
But here is what we know:
If Cate Blanchett wins the SAG, she’s winning the Oscar. She’s already locked in with Globes/Critics Choice/BAFTA.
If Michelle Yeoh wins the SAG, she MIGHT win the Oscar. So far, she has only won at the Globes.
If Austin Butler wins the SAG, he’s winning the Oscar (Globes/BAFTA)
If Brendan Fraser wins the SAG, he is probably winning the Oscar (Critics Choice)
If Angela Bassett wins the SAG, she is probably winning the Oscar (Globes/Critics Choice)
If Kerry Condon wins the SAG, she is definitely winning the Oscar (BAFTA)
If Everything Everywhere All at Once wins the PGA, it’s winning Best Picture. If it doesn’t, it’s potentially vulnerable.
If Top Gun: Maverick wins the Producers Guild, it has a chance to win Best Picture, though it would have to also win Adapted Screenplay, along with Sound + Editing.
Either way, I think it’s 95% probable (“because I know how much certainty freaks you guys out”) it’s a blowout for Everything Everywhere All at Once. The 5% doubt rests on whether it is divisive or not, and whether that divisveness will show up on the ranked choice (preferential) ballot. It’s hard to know since people seem to be too embarrassed to openly criticize it.
We’ve already posted our PGA predictions, now here are our SAG predictions:
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis — Clarence Moye, Sasha Stone, Mark Johnson, Ryan Adams
Brendan Fraser, The Whale — Marshall Flores
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, TAR — Stone, Adams, Moye
Michelle Yeoh, EEAAO — Johnson, Flores
Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan, EEAAO — Stone, Adams, Johnson, Moye, Flores
Supporting Actress
Kerry Condon, Banshees of Inisherin — Stone, Moye, Adams
Angela Bassett, Black Panther Wakanda Forever — Johnson, Flores
Ensemble
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Moye, Johnson, Flores
The Banshees of Inisherin — Stone, Adams
Stunt Ensemble
The Woman King — Johnson, Moye, Adams
Top Gun: Maverick — Stone, Flores
And here are my Oscar predictions as they stand now:
Best Picture
Everything Everywhere All at Once (if it wins PGA/SAG)
Top Gun: Maverick (If it wins PGA)
The Fabelmans (if it wins the SAG/PGA)
The Banshees of Inisherin (if it wins PGA/SAG)
All Quiet on the Western Front
Tár
Elvis
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
Triangle of Sadness
Best Director
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis (If he wins the SAG)
Brendan Fraser, The Whale (If he wins the SAG)
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Supporting Actress
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau, The Whale
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
The Fabelmans
Triangle of Sadness
Best Editing
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Tár
Empire of Light
Bardo
Best Costume Design
Elvis
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Best Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Fabelmans
Sound
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Makeup and Hairstyling
Elvis
The Whale
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Original Score
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Babylon
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Song
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR or “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Applause” from Tell It like a Woman
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best International Feature
All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
Argentina, 1985, Argentina
Close, Belgium
EO, Poland
The Quiet Girl, Ireland
Best Documentary
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
Navalny
All That Breathes
A House Made of Splinters
Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Animated Short
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
The Flying Sailor
My Year of Dicks
Ice Merchants
Live Action Short
An Irish Goodbye
The Red Suitcase
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
Documentary Short
The Elephant Whisperers
How Do You Measure a Year?
Haulout
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate