2023 Emmy Predictions: Who Are Our Emmy Frontrunners Post-Nominations?

Now that the dust has settled from last week’s Emmy nominations, we know who the frontrunners theoretically are. Based on nomination haul alone, Succession, Ted Lasso, The Last of Us, Beef, Dahmer, and The White Lotus (in no particular order) are the series that most frequently popped from the voter’s Phase 1 ballots. These series alone amassed 121 Emmy nominations. Clearly, in most cases, winners are going to come from this pool.

Of course, that won’t always be the case. There will inevitably be surprises. Maybe not in the Drama categories, but Ted Lasso isn’t guaranteed to perform extraordinarily well for a third season seen by many as uneven and failing to match the quality of the previous two. Or it could. Apple remains cagey as to whether or not the series will return in its current capacity or if we’re looking at some kind of spin-off opportunity. It’s likely they won’t release any clarifying information before final round voting wraps in late August either. Most people believe this to be Lasso‘s final season, and the chance to throw more Emmys at it on the way out the door will likely prove a boon to the series.

It will likely be a while before we know for sure, though. Given the combined power of the WGA and SAG strikes, the 75th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards will likely not happen on its originally scheduled date of September 18. No announces have been made, of course, but guild restrictions will prevent attendance by many high-profile names. Rumors point to the ceremony moving into November or, unfortunately the most likely scenario, to January 21 right in the middle of Oscar season. And that, in my opinion, would be the worst case scenario.

Granted, we here at Awards Daily fully support the writers and actors as they seek fair wages and retain compensation for their AI likeness. But I’m not going to lie that pushing the 75th Emmys all the way into January just feels like letting the air out of all four tires. There probably isn’t a better option and moving it back that far would ensure resolution of the strike. But I personally feel that, should the ceremony move to January, no one will care about the outcome at that point. They will have already moved on and forgotten a ceremony that honors, by that point, series that potentially premiered a year and a half earlier. A push that far seems to set the Television Academy up for another poorly rated ceremony, something they’re continuing to struggle with post-COVID.

At any rate, we can still hypothesize who the frontrunners are in the major races today. I can’t imagine what continued coverage would look like all the way through January, but today, we’re looking forward as if the ceremony were happening as originally scheduled. As you can see on the ADTV main page, we’ve updated the Emmy Tracker with “frontrunner” and “potential spoiler” designations. Over the next few sections, I’ll explain our rationale behind each.

Drama Series

Frontrunner: Succession
Potential Spoilers: The Last of Us; The White Lotus: Sicily

The easiest call of the night: HBO is taking home Drama Series again this year. And it will be for Succession. It’s not up for debate. The series stuck the landing with a near-universally beloved finale. The final season lead all series with 27 nominations. The Television Academy isn’t moving on after giving the series top honors last year. If by some bizarre scenario it does lose, then the award will go to either The Last of Us or The White Lotus: Sicily. In that unlikely world, my money would be on The White Lotus, but that’s not going to happen. Succession will also take the writing Emmy for Jesse Armstrong as he’s never lost a writing Emmy for Succession, and he wisely chose the most buzzed-about episode of the season as his submission, “Connor’s Wedding.” That said, I’m not entirely convinced Succession wins directing. Three directors received nominations for their work over the final season, including Mark Mylod for his work on “Connor’s Wedding.” But we’ve seen a drama series in its final season unable to overcome a 3-way split before (Game of Thrones). It’s not exactly an apples to apples comparison here, but if Mylod doesn’t win, then my money would be on Mike White for his full season direction of The White Lotus. Peter Hoar’s sensitive direction of The Last of Us‘s “Long, Long Time” could also spoil.

Lead Actress, Drama

Frontrunner: Sarah Snook, Succession
Potential Spoiler: Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets

Only two women can realistically win here. As soon as Succession‘s final season premiered, audiences immediately started the Snook for Lead Actress campaign, even before she’d been officially promoted from Supporting Actress. It just made sense, and it opened the door for other actresses, namely J. Smith-Cameron, to receive a nomination. When the season finished, Snook’s stellar work surpassed our wildest imaginations for the character. Former frontrunner Melanie Lynskey, a lovely and extremely talented actress who plays against type in Yellowjackets, just couldn’t compete with Snook’s heat, especially as Yellowjackets‘ second season seemed to tire of her Shauna as the season progressed. Lynskey holds the spoiler spot by default, but this is Snook’s by a landslide.

Lead Actor, Drama

Frontrunner: Kieran Culkin, Succession
Potential Spoilers: Jeremy Strong, Succession; Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us; 

Flip a coin. Is it previous winner Jeremy Strong or is it newly promoted Lead Actor Kieran Culkin? We’re going with Culkin right now only because Strong won before, but they’re both fantastic actors who give career-best performances this season. Culkin just feels more “of the moment,” and he takes the audience on an unexpectedly emotional journey at the end of the series. Strong could spoil, though. Or, given Brian Cox’s nomination, the three men could split the vote, leaving the door open for another actor. Given the broad support for the series, that other name would likely be Pedro Pascal for his work in The Last of Us. But you should never count out Bob Odenkirk for his presumably last run at Saul Goodman in Better Call Saul.

Supporting Actress, Drama

Frontrunner: Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus: Sicily
Potential Spoiler: J. Smith-Cameron, Succession; Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul

This category has a lot of White Lotus actresses in it. Everyone’s initial instinct is that Jennifer Coolidge’s second season performance is different and memorable enough to warrant a second Emmy for the role. Her highly memeable “These gays are trying to kill me!” moment will absolutely help her. However, she would essentially have to overcome a 5-way split to win, and I’m not sure if anyone has ever done that before. If say Coolidge, Fahy, and Plaza split the majority of the Lotus votes, then who benefits? It could be Better Call Saul‘s Rhea Seehorn on her second nomination as Kim Wexler. Or the Television Academy could pull a Schitt’s Creek and give every acting prize to Succession, which would benefit J. Smith-Cameron even if her role wasn’t a strong this year as in years past.

Supporting Actor, Drama

Frontrunner: Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
Potential Spoiler: Alexander Skarsgård, Succession; Will Sharpe, The White Lotus

Yes, Matthew Macfadyen won last year, but how do you deny him a second Emmy after those blistering scenes against Lead Actress frontrunner Snook? If Snook is truly undeniable, then Macfadyen has a massive leg up against his Succession co-stars. It’s funny to talk about overcome splits in this category as it’s completely dominated by supporting performances from Succession and The White Lotus. If Macfadyen fails, then Skarsgård’s buzzy performance could bring him his second Emmy win. But a far more left-field prediction would be for Will Sharpe to walk away with a trophy for his deeply complex performance in The White Lotus. For my money, he gives the best male performance in the second season. And it isn’t even close.

Comedy Series

Frontrunner: Ted Lasso
Potential Spoilers: The Bear

Prior to July 12 when the nominations were announced, conventional wisdom pegged Abbott Elementary as the Comedy Series frontrunner for its acclaimed sophomore season. That is until the nominations came out. While the series did manage to increase its haul over last year by one nomination, it again failed to win a direction nomination. Plus, it failed to win a writing nomination, a category it won last year. There’s a very slight chance that it could pull off a win, but former internet punching bag Ted Lasso seems assured a third series win, even if it fails to win much else. Instead of Abbott Elementary, we’re sensing that FX’s The Bear is a stronger contender to spoil if Lasso fails. Yes, we know. It’s not a comedy. But the air around the series is undeniable, and it over-performed in nominations, receiving all key mentions that would lead to a series win.

Lead Actress, Comedy

Frontrunner: Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Potential Spoiler: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

This is not a deep category. Even as she failed to win a writing nomination, the Television Academy will likely recognize Quinta Brunson for her work on the series. She’s a very talented and funny actress, and only a single Black woman (Isabel Sanford, The Jeffersons) has won the category. Failing that, only Rachel Brosnahan seems poised to win for the final season of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Go with the history-making win instead.

Lead Actor, Comedy

Frontrunner: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Potential Spoiler: Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

Sudeikis’s recent UNO game with Taylor Swift at a cannabis club party hosted by Questlove definitely kept him in the pop culture conversation. Will that parlay him to a third win for the title role of the Apple series? It is his last turn at bat, presumably, but there’s so much more heat around the intense performance from The Bear‘s Jeremy Allen White. White’s recent winning streak for his work puts him into the frontrunner slot, but this will be the first time both actors faced each other in a competitive category. The only other potential scenario for the win aligns with Martin Short whose chances might have increased with the shocking omission of Steve Martin for Only Murders in the Building.

Supporting Actress, Comedy

Frontrunner: Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Potential Spoiler: Ayo Edebiri, The Bear

It’s difficult to get a read on this category. Many people assumed Lisa Ann Walter’s elevated second season presence and ample campaigning would net her a nomination and probable win. But she wasn’t nominated. We then assume Ralph repeats unless Janelle James manages to sneak out a win. But the only performance in the entire category that truly has heat behind it is with Ayo Edebiri’s work on season one of The Bear. Audiences raved about her performance with a sense of discovery that has maintained energy all season. True, she hasn’t won anything for the role yet, but in a category without a strong frontrunner, she’s the perfect type of actor to spoil.

Supporting Actor, Comedy

Frontrunner: Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Potential Spoiler: Phil Dunster, Ted Lasso; Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear; James Marsden, Jury Duty

Another weird category without an undeniable true frontrunner, which we like. Keeps things interesting. Tyler James Williams could take it for Abbott Elementary, but it’s also slightly difficult to imagine a scenario where Abbott Elementary underperforms in major categories and walks home with three performance Emmy wins. If it’s not Williams, then one of three actors seems poised to spoil. Ted Lasso fans may have moved on from Brett Goldstein’s work as Roy Kent, which would benefit Phil Dunster’s sensitive comic work as Jamie Tartt. It also helps that Tartt is one of the few characters that truly changed over the course of the series. Or it could be The Bear‘s Moss-Bachrach as the surprise over-performing nominee. I’d love to save his win for next year’s Emmys thanks to his brilliant work in season two’s “Forks.” And surprisingly enough, James Marsden isn’t out of the conversation for his role as himself in Jury Duty, a show that won a surprise Comedy Series nomination and is clearly liked by many voting members. Can the Television Academy separate the actor from the performance? Marsden’s work is hilariously over the top and probably most deserving of a win amongst the nominated actors.

Limited Series

Frontrunner: Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Potential Spoilers: Beef

There are only two potential winners amongst the five nominated shows. Dahmer emerged as the frontrunner last fall after a quiet rollout that made the serial killer drama a word of mouth sensation. But is the series too dark and too long (assuming Television Academy voters actually watch the shows in contention)? And did Ryan Murphy’s recent WGA strike commentary shoot his shows in the foot? If it’s not Dahmer, then it has to be Netflix’s other Limited Series nomination leader Beef. They’ve already had and overcome their controversy early last spring, and the series did well with its acting nominations. Sure, it’s a pitch-black comedy, but it’s a critically beloved audience favorite that kept going throughout the spring. The win here is probably closer than you think.

Lead Actress, Limited Series

Frontrunner: Ali Wong, Beef
Potential Spoiler: Jessica Chastain, George and Tammy

Convention wisdom tells you the winner here is Jessica Chastain for her work in George and Tammy. But the series itself failed to win a nomination. Ali Wong’s acclaimed performance in Beef feels more like the frontrunner thanks to the broad support for Beef with 13 nominations.

Lead Actor, Limited Series

Frontrunner: Evan Peters, Dahmer
Potential Spoiler: Steven Yeun, Beef

Evan Peters transformative work as Jeffrey Dahmer is the frontrunner here and has been all season. There’s no competition save a few votes for the well liked Steven Yeun or maybe Daniel Radcliffe’s eccentric work in the 8-time nominated Weird: The Al Yankovic Story. But this is Peters’ to lose, and it would mark his second Emmy win.

Supporting Actress, Limited Series

Frontrunner: Niecy Nash-Betts, Dahmer
Potential Spoiler: Claire Danes, Fleishman Is In Trouble

This is one of the easiest calls of the night. Nash-Betts is as undeniable for her work in Dahmer as Jennifer Coolidge was last year for her work in The White Lotus. There’s really no spoiler here, but if Nash-Betts were disqualified or something like that, then Claire Danes would win for her role as the troubled titular character (a mild spoiler for the series). She’s an Emmy favorite, and her work toward the end of the series is outstanding and among her best.

Supporting Actor, Limited Series

Frontrunner: Richard Jenkins, Dahmer
Potential Spoiler: Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird

Richard Jenkins is a beloved actor who has never really received his due. I suspect that will change with a win for his fatherly role in Dahmer. Many have Hauser in lead position as he received several wins throughout the winter guild season, and that could definitely happen. However, Black Bird stunningly failed to win a series nomination, proving the acclaimed Apple series doesn’t have as many fans as we originally thought.

TV Movie

Frontrunner: Weird: The Al Yankovic Story
Potential Spoiler: Prey

Weird received more nominations than some drama or comedy series did, so it feels like the unlikely frontrunner here. Prey also did well with directing and writing nominations, but Weird has the acting nomination to enhance its haul. And remember: this is the Television Academy who bestowed Chip & Dale: Rescue Rangers a TV Movie win last year. They clearly don’t give a shit about this category at all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PV70dcfXfg0