The Way Upsets Happen

Other than Tom O’Neil, and perhaps Kris Tapley, I am one of the few people who has been closely monitoring each agonizing step of the Oscar race to know how and why there can be upsets. Okay, so that is a dubious achievement, I will admit. Most people have better things to do with their time. Me? I have spent too many hours poring over the details of races to know that the various websites who are proclaiming “it’s over” the morning after the BAFTAs have forgotten two things. 1) ballots aren’t even turned in yet. Therefore, we are still in the voting phase. No one should declare a race over until the ballot phase is closed.

2) We are working with the preferential ballot for the first time in fifty years. Nobody knows anything. So, although they write entertaining columns and are my pals, for the most part, try hard not to listen to what Scott Feinberg, Jeff Wells and Steve Pond have written after last night’s Hurt Locker sweep of the BAFTAs.

If this was last year and ballots were mostly in and we were dealing with five best picture and a non-preferential ballot? Absolutely, the race would be over. But we aren’t, Blanche, we aren’t. So stay frosty, Oscar watchers.

Best Pic is still anyone’s game. This race is not over.¬† And if you think it is, you shouldn’t say you think it is until the ballot deadline has passed. The only race that could have been called that way was last year’s Slumdog Millionaire — and past races like Schindler’s List. So, give me a break, fellas.