2024 Oscar Predictions – It’s All About the Ensemble

The one thing you’ll notice if you watch the Oscars long enough is that it’s all about the actors. Funny thing, that. So many people come to the Oscars as one would by judging, oh, say, directorial vision or a visual effects extravaganza. Yes, but only if actors are also the central focus. If you get that, you get everything. All of this virtue signaling we see with the awards? It’s generally because of actors. I’m only half-kidding. But they are the most image-conscious of the branches, and thus, what the Oscars become must be how they want to be seen. If you catch my drift.

The one thing actors like more than anything is a great ensemble. Lots of actors (12 Years a Slave) is far superior to fewer actors (Gravity). There are exceptions to these rules, of course, like Million Dollar Baby, but it’s rare. It isn’t always the case that a great ensemble (Parasite) beats a visionary masterpiece (1917) but it’s mostly the case.

This year, most of the Best Picture frontrunners are ensemble pieces, as opposed to showcase pieces (wherein one or two actors are central to the entire film). Oppenheimer, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, American Fiction, The Color Purple – these are all strong ensemble movies. Films like Nyad, for instance, is more of a showcase piece with two central performances at the center.

One of the best ensemble films of the year is one almost no one has seen and no one is talking about, and that’s George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat, his best film since Good Night and Good Luck. Unfortunately, this film proves that the Oscar race really is about hype. It can’t possibly break through unless it ran the gauntlet of the film festivals, which it did not. The cast is comprised of mostly unknowns, but they’re all really good.

The reason the SAG ensemble prize has become so important of late is that they moved the date for their awards to be given out later in the season,  instead of earlier. That’s why three out of four of the last Best Picture winners all won the SAG ensemble:

2022 – Everything Everywhere All At Once
2021 – CODA
2020 – Nomadland
2019 – Parasite

Prior to that, we saw Best Picture winners that were not even nominated for the ensemble award:

2018 – Green Book
2017 – The Shape of Water

And before that, having a nomination was the best guarantee for a Best Picture win, even when the film did not win ensemble:

2016 – Moonlight
2015 – Spotlight
2014 – Birdman
2013 – 12 Years a Slave
2012 – Argo
2011 – The Artist
2010 – The King’s Speech
2009 – The Hurt Locker

But it’s lately that the SAG ensemble has become all-important for the Oscars because the ultimate objective, or goals, of both groups have now fused (where they did not necessarily align previously). That means both groups are, to put it nicely, “social-justice oriented.” The SAG has always been this way, but it took a while for the Oscars to align. In fact, it was 2020 that really transformed the industry overall to replace what we would have called merit alone with a balance of merit + equity (women and people of color win more than white men do).

Nomadland obviously wasn’t nominated for ensemble because it was a showcase piece. It won because 2020 was a really strange year, and Chloe Zhao fit the ultimate objectives of the industry at the time. Ironically, the film reflects what was happening in the unseen America no one cares about or talks about unless they’re fretting about extremism.

It’s hard to fathom that in 2023, a film that wins SAG ensemble won’t win the Oscar for Best Picture. Obviously, it could happen, but it’s hard to imagine after what we’ve seen in the past few years.

So let’s imagine what the SAG ensemble award will look like, with five of the strongest nominees:

Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
American Fiction

Those are the strongest four, in my opinion. For the fifth slot, we have the following options:

The Color Purple
The Holdovers
May December
Maestro
Past Lives

All of these films, except The Color Purple, focus on strong central performances, many of whom will be nominated in the various categories. The Holdovers, for instance, will have both Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph. May December will have Julianne Moore and Charles Melton, maybe even Natalie Portman. Maestro will have Carey Mulligan and Bradley Cooper. Past Lives doesn’t have any singular performances building buzz, but perhaps that makes it perfect for the ensemble category.

Predicting the SAG awards is not easy because they randomly select 2,000 of their voting members to choose the nominations. We have no idea what kind of group we’ll get from year to year.

I’m thinking that the two films that will compete the hardest for this are Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon. Barbie because it’s fun and a high achievement for Greta Gerwig, Killers because it’s history-making and important.

But it might not go this way. It could certainly be Oppenheimer if the film sweeps the guilds. It could also be The Color Purple. Certainly, old-school SAG, before it became SAG/AFTRA, might have gone for that. You’re talking about 100,000 people voting, so whatever they pick has a more than decent chance of also winning the big prize at the Oscars.

And now on to this week’s predictions.

The Gold Derby crew, and predictor extraordinaire Joyce Eng, are in agreement right now about Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress. Where there is some disagreement is with Actor and Supporting Actor:

Joyce Eng is predicting Oppenheimer to win:

Picture
Director
Actor
Supporting Actor
Screenplay
Cinematography
Score
Sound

We know that’s not going to happen, though we all wish it would/could. Oscar movies don’t sweep like that in the era of the expanded ballot. With ten nominees, they split things up.

For instance, Best Actor and Best Picture have only matched twice:
2010 – The King’s Speech
2011 – The Artist

Since then, they have split those top prizes. Secondly, and I don’t know why this is, but Cinematography has only matched once:

2014 – Birdman

Director and Screenplay rarely go together, although when they love a movie, they REALLY LOVE A MOVIE, as we saw last year. But they generally split these two big awards up.

Picture/Screenplay
2012 – Argo
2013 – 12 Years a Slave
2015 – Spotlight
2016 – Moonlight
2018 – Green Book
2021 – CODA

Picture/Director/Screenplay
2009 – The Hurt Locker
2010 – The King’s Speech
2014 – Birdman
2019 – Parasite
2022 – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Picture/Director
2011 – The Artist
2017 – The Shape of Water
2020 – Nomadland

It would be extremely rare for Oppenheimer to win all three, and I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news, because he’s a — wait for it — white male. It’s not impossible, of course. It would just be unusual. Then throw Actor in the heap and you’re really in the rarest of the rare:

2010 – The King’s Speech

Then, to add the other tech awards, you’re in setting a new precedent territory. Do you really think the wokest of the woke are gonna go that way? Look, no one would be happier than me. I’m just saying.

It’s more likely that they split up. Barbie would win Picture and Nolan would win Director but then you have to deny Greta Gerwig Best Director. Are they really going to do that? Probably not.

So, then would it be Picture Oppenheimer and Director Gerwig? Maybe. Picture something totally different, like American Fiction or Poor Things, with the Director up in the air.

I see why Joyce Eng has gone this route. Choosing Oppenheimer is the safe bet right now because it’s going to win something.

Either way, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you all. Here are my predictions for this week.

Tell us what you think about SAG Ensemble in our poll:

[poll id=”80″]

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon (NYFCC, NBR)
American Fiction
The Holdovers
Maestro
Poor Things
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
The Color Purple

Alt: The Zone of Interest (LAFCA), All of Us Strangers

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (NYFCC)
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (NBR)
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Alt: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (LAFCA); Celine Song, Past Lives

Best Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (NBR)
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Alt: Colman Domingo, Rustin; Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (NYFCC, NBR)
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall

Alt: Annette Bening, Nyad; Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Natalie Portman, May December; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (NBR)
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Charles Melton, May December (NYFCC)

Alt: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers; Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (NYFCC, NBR)
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Julianne Moore, May December
America Ferrara, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Alt: Jodie Foster, Nyad; Tilda Swinton, The Killer; Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things; Julianne Moore, May December; Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things (NBR)
The Zone of Interest

Alt: The Killer; All of Us Strangers (LAFCA), The Color Purple

Original Screenplay
Barbie
The Holdovers (NBR)
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro

Alt: May December (NYFCC)

Editing
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Poor Things
The Holdovers

Cinematography
Oppenheimer (NYFCC)
Killers of the Flower Moon (NBR)
Poor Things (LAFCA)
Maestro
Barbie

Costumes
Poor Things
Barbie
The Color Purple
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design
Barbie
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro

International Feature
20 Days in Mariupol
The Zone of Interest
The Taste of Things
The Teachers’ Lounge
Fallen Leaves

Documentary Feature
American Symphony
20 Days in Mariupol
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Beyond Utopia
Four Daughters

Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (NBR)
The Boy and the Heron (NYFCC)
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish

Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Poor Things
Indiana Jones: The Dial of Destiny

Song
What Was I made For- Barbie
I’m Just Ken- Barbie
Dance the Night – Barbie
Road to Freedom – Rustin
High Life – Flora and Son

Makeup and Hairstyling
Maestro
Ferrari
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things