2024 Oscar Predictions: Oscar Squad Delivers First Look After the Nominations

One this is for sure, we’re all very tired of “the snub.”

The Academy’s failure to nominate Greta Gerwig as Best Director for her work on Barbie has been discussed in nearly every cultural corner from X (Twitter) to CNN. It’s as if omissions like this have never happened. Not only have they happened before, but they routinely happen to directors (male or female) who direct massive blockbusters. Remember that Steven Spielberg famously failed to receive a nomination for the grandfather of all summer blockbusters — Jaws. And women across history failed to receive Oscar nominations for warmly received films. But Gerwig received a DGA nomination you say? So did Barbra Streisand. So did Kathryn Bigelow. Both missed Oscar nominations for those years. The bottom line is that the Academy is still largely male (what they used to call “the steak eaters”), and Barbie likely failed to resonate as a serious piece of filmmaking.

It takes nothing away from her achievement. Personally, I can’t imagine anyone else evolving Barbie into the meditation it became. Is it a perfect film? No. Is it a uniquely Greta Gerwig construction? Absolutely. She should have been nominated.

So, how does Gerwig’s omission impact the first post-nominations Oscar Squad rankings? It catapults her ahead of presumed frontrunner Oppenheimer in the Adapted Screenplay race. And this is no revelation to Oscar watchers. The common idea is that the Academy will want to recognize her achievements in some fashion. They’re unlikely to do so in Best Picture, particularly if the persistent “snub” narrative continues to fester a backlash. That backlash could even impact her success in the Adapted Screenplay race. But, for now, we’re thinking the opportunity to reward Gerwig and Noah Baumbach will result in Barbie’s highest profile win.

Don’t cry for Oppenheimer, though. The Oscar Squad, at this early stage of Phase 2, settled on 7 wins for Nolan’s epic, including Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, and a series of crafts. That feels about right, yes? And as we said on our recent podcast, if the Academy fails to recognize Oppenheimer in the year of Barbenheimer, fails to reward the rare blend of art and commerce, then they deserve the obscurity that will inevitably come.

At any rate, here are the Oscar Squad’s first post-nominations rankings. It’s hard to believe the noms were just last Tuesday.