2024 Oscar Predictions — What Narratives Now Shape the Race

The Oscar race is fluid, not static. It is a different race before the nominations hit. After they hit, narratives begin to develop. We have some time before the big guilds start voting. Whatever narratives rise now will impact how the consensus votes. Even still, we might need more time to be ready for what comes next. Either we’re in a year where one movie sweeps everything (like last year), or we’re in a year when voters are undecided as a group about what movie should win.

Let’s take one of the most interesting Oscar years in recent memory, 2015. It was a year mostly without a frontrunner. At some point, the hype was around The Revenant. But that began to shift for whatever reason. The Revenant won the Golden Globes, but then, by the time the Producers Guild rolled around, The Big Short somehow won that. The Revenant won the DGA. Then, Spotlight won the SAG and, eventually, the Oscar.

What I remember about that year was how the Spotlight campaign did such a great job showing that they, even with an all-white cast, were fighting on the right side, while The Big Short was full of bad white people. Either way, it was a really strange year and one we haven’t seen replicated.

Is this that kind of a year? Well, probably not. We have yet to determine, of course, if it is. We have to wait to see what the PGA anoints as its winner, but you never know. Oppenheimer has won both the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice for Picture and Director. Three films did that and then lost the Oscar, and that was The Social Network, Boyhood, and La La Land (in the era of the expanded ballot).

But if not Oppenheimer, then what? The way the narratives shift will likely tell us that. At the moment, it’s Oppie’s to lose.

The narratives that have bubbled up after the nominations have, thus far, revolved around Greta Gerwig not nominated for directing Barbie. It’s hard to make a case for sexism, since they did nominate Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall, so does this discourse push Triet toward a win for Screenplay or Director? Maybe.

An interesting article cropped up over at a site called FAIR. If you’re in the free speech realm at all, you’ll know all about FAIR. It’s one of the outlets determined to bring back “merit” over “equity” and end our constant need to categorize each other per our skin color or our gender.

The piece is called Requiem for the Oscars:

Image from NPR

Writing anonymously, the author calls out the Academy’s lurch toward DEI, “diversity, equity and inclusion.” How they may or may not have destroyed their brand, and how they’re attempting to rebuild it. He also singles out both Oppenheimer and American Fiction for being counterexamples of what the Oscars have become (a woketopia).

The fact that Oppenheimer, the odds-on favorite to win Best Picture, and American Fiction are both nominated for Best Picture is a rather spectacular comeuppance for the first year of the “inclusion standards,” because together they expose the hypocrisy and the insincerity of the entire anti-artistic farce. If a film as white and male and utterly lacking in any ethnic diversity as Oppenheimer can meet the new inclusion standards, then the standards are exposed as a meaningless, virtue-signaling charade which should be immediately abolished. And if that’s still not enough, then consider the conundrum of American Fiction, a film quite literally aimed at the hypocrisy of white powerbrokers who attempt to define what black artists should be and do. If the architects of the Academy’s “inclusion standards” don’t see themselves in American Fiction, then they are hopelessly disconnected from reality and the general public, and the Academy may well and truly be doomed.

What this piece tells me, and from things I’ve heard elsewhere, is that the buzz is going to start building for American Fiction, which is going to hit the sweet spot for those who lament the way Hollywood and the Oscars have changed over time. Whether that means American Fiction could, say, win the PGA is a wait-and-see. American Fiction is subversive art in the best way and calls out the do-gooders in the industry for their desire to “help” Black artists but only when they make films or write books that are about suffering.

Regarding the other categories, we’re still navigating the acting categories for frontrunners, though Robert Downey, Jr. and Da’Vine Joy Randolph appear to be locked. Best Actor, Best Actress, and both screenplay categories appear to be open.

Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers vs. Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer, and maybe Jeffrey Wright for American Fiction — I mean, one never knows. Bradley Cooper might also benefit from a split-vote scenario.

Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon vs. Emma Stone for Poor Things versus Annette Bening for Nyad who might benefit from a split.

Now is the time to forget about stats and listen to the buzz as it starts to rise. Listen for potential controversies. See who feels like they are being uplifted and celebrated. All of that will come into play over the next few weeks.

Here is a quick look at the voting calendar.

Voting right now:

The Directors Guild (voting ends Feb 9)
DGA Awards (Feb 10)
The Producers Guild (voting ends Feb 15)
Oscar voting starts (Feb 22)
The Screen Actors Guild (voting ends Feb 23)
SAG Awards (Feb 24)
PGA Awards (Feb 25)
Oscar voting ends (Feb 27)

All the awards that are held after the Oscar ballot deadline:
Cinema Audio Society
The USC Scripter Awards
Editors Guild Awards
Cinematographers Guild Awards
Motion Picture Sound Editors Awards

The Oscars: March 10

Needless to say, the big guilds will have some impact on the Oscar voting, but especially so if Academy members wait until the last minute to vote. If they hand in their ballots early, maybe not.

Here are my current predictions:

Best Motion Picture of the Year

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Holdovers
3. American Fiction
4. Poor Things
5. Barbie
6. Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Maestro
8. Anatomy of a Fall
9. The Zone of Interest
10. Past Lives

Best Actor

1. Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers
2. Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer
3. Bradley Cooper in Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction
5. Colman Domingo in Rustin

Best Actress

1. Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emma Stone in Poor Things
3. Annette Bening in Nyad
4. Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall
5. Carey Mulligan in Maestro

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Robert Downey Jr. in “Oppenheimer”
2. Ryan Gosling in “Barbie”
3. Sterling K. Brown in “American Fiction”
4. Robert De Niro in “Killers of the Flower Moon”
5. Mark Ruffalo in “Poor Things”

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph in “The Holdovers”
2. Emily Blunt in “Oppenheimer”
3. Danielle Brooks in “The Color Purple”
4. America Ferrera in “Barbie”
5. Jodie Foster in “Nyad”

Achievement in Directing

1. “Oppenheimer” Christopher Nolan
2. “Anatomy of a Fall” Justine Triet
3. “Killers of the Flower Moon” Martin Scorsese
4. “Poor Things” Yorgos Lanthimos
5. “The Zone of Interest” Jonathan Glazer

Adapted Screenplay

1. “Barbie” Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
2. “American Fiction” Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
3. “Oppenheimer” Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
4. “Poor Things” Screenplay by Tony McNamara
5. “The Zone of Interest” Written by Jonathan Glazer

Original Screenplay

1. “The Holdovers” Written by David Hemingson
2. “Anatomy of a Fall” Screenplay — Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
3. “Maestro” Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
4. “May December” Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
5. “Past Lives” Written by Celine Song

Achievement in Production Design

1. “Barbie” 
2. “Poor Things”
3. “Oppenheimer”
4. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
5. “Napoleon”

Achievement in Sound

1. “Oppenheimer” 
2. “The Zone of Interest”
3. “The Creator” 
4. “Maestro”
5. “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”

Achievement in Visual Effects

• “The Creator”  
• “Godzilla Minus One”
• “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
• “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
• “Napoleon”

Achievement in Film Editing

1. “Oppenheimer” Jennifer Lame
2. “Poor Things” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
3. “Anatomy of a Fall” Laurent Sénéchal
4. “The Holdovers” Kevin Tent
5. “Killers of the Flower Moon” Thelma Schoonmaker

Achievement in Cinematography

1. “Oppenheimer” Hoyte van Hoytema
2. “Poor Things” Robbie Ryan
3. “El Conde” Edward Lachman
4. “Killers of the Flower Moon” Rodrigo Prieto
5. “Maestro” Matthew Libatique

Achievement in Costume Design

1. “Barbie” Jacqueline Durran
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon” Jacqueline West
3. “Napoleon” Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
4. “Oppenheimer” Ellen Mirojnick
5. “Poor Things” Holly Waddington

Best Documentary Feature Film

1. “20 Days in Mariupol”  
2. “Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
3. “The Eternal Memory”
4. “Four Daughters”
5. “To Kill a Tiger”

Best Documentary Short Film

1. “The Last Repair Shop”
2. “Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó” 
3. “The ABCs of Book Banning” 
4. “The Barber of Little Rock”
5. “Island in Between”

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

1. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
2. “The Boy and the Heron”
3. “Elemental”
4. “Nimona”
5. “Robot Dreams”

Best International Feature Film of the Year

1. “The Zone of Interest” United Kingdom
2. “Perfect Days” Japan
3. “Society of the Snow” Spain
4. “The Teachers’ Lounge” Germany
5. “Io Capitano” Italy

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

1. “Maestro”
2. “Golda”
3. “Oppenheimer”
4. “Poor Things”
5. “Society of the Snow”

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

1. “Oppenheimer” Ludwig Göransson
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon” Robbie Robertson
3. “Poor Things” Jerskin Fendrix
4. “American Fiction” Laura Karpman
5. “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” John Williams

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

1. “I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie”
   Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
2. “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
   Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
3. “The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot”
   Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
4. “It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony”
   Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
5. “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from “Killers of the Flower Moon”
   Music and Lyric by Scott George

Best Animated Short Film

1. “WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
2. “Letter to a Pig” Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
3. “Ninety-Five Senses” Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
4. “Our Uniform” Yegane Moghaddam
5. “Pachyderme” Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius

Best Live Action Short Film

1. “The After” Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
2. “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
3. “Invincible” Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
4. “Knight of Fortune” Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
5. “Red, White and Blue” Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane