Down to the Wire SAG Predictions

Tomorrow night, the SAG Awards will tell us where we land for the lead acting categories. It might also tell us something about Best Picture. If Oppenheimer takes the cast award, it’s smooth sailing. If it doesn’t, it’s a nail-biter.

Let’s look at the films that have won the DGA and the SAG ensemble. All of these also won the PGA, and all but one ended up winning Best Picture:

2010 — The King’s Speech
2012 — Argo
2014 — Birdman
2022 — Everything Everywhere All at Once

And that’s it, friends. Prior to the expanded era, it was done a few times:

1995 — Apollo 13 (did not win Picture or Director)
1999 — American Beauty (won Pic + Dir)
2002 — Chicago (won Picture)
2003 — Return of the King (won Pic + Dir)
2007 — No Country for Old Men (won Pic + Dir)
2008 — Slumdog Millionaire (won Pic + Dir)

As you can see, it happens much less now than it used to, which is another reason why an Oppenheimer win in SAG Ensemble would be unusual for the times we live through now. Yet, almost everyone at Gold Derby is predicting it to win.

Regarding the acting categories, the two lead categories feel wide open. The SAG Awards will likely determine the final outcome of the Oscars because they are held so close to the end of voting. It would be unusual for voters to switch horses mid-stream. So, I would imagine whoever wins at SAG takes it. They are all worthy to my mind.

Here are our SAG predictions (you can enter our predictions contest here):

Best Actor
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer — Sasha Stone, Marshall Flores
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers — Ryan Adams, Clarence Moye
Bradley Cooper, Maestro — Mark Johnson

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon — Stone, Flores, Adams, Moye
Emma Stone, Poor Things — Johnson

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer — Stone, Flores, Adams, Moye, Johnson

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers — Stone, Flores, Adams, Moye, Johnson

Ensemble
Oppenheimer — Stone, Flores, Johnson
American Fiction — Adams
Barbie — Moye

Stunt Ensemble
John Wick: Chapter 4 — Adams, Moye, Johnson
Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part 1 — Flores
Barbie — Stone

We’ll be posting a No Guts, No Glory tomorrow.