2025 Oscar Predictions – Risk-Taking Directors Shape the Early Buzz

The Oscar season is about to lock and load in just a few weeks.  So far, what is getting my attention are the director-led visionary films that might be good enough to dominate the race. If we just start with Denis Villeneuve’s moving painting, Dune 2, which is unlike anything we’ve ever seen on the big screen. And yes, its heavy on visuals — but wow, what visuals. And light on story, unless you can understand it. But it doesn’t really matter whether we can understand it or not. That’s not the point. It’s an immersive cinematic experience and the pure expression of the brilliance of Denis Villeneuve. I don’t know if that makes him the frontrunner or not. Maybe it does. But so far, nothing has managed to come close to that in terms of big canvas directing.

Then there is Sean Baker’s Anora, which is said to be the best film of his career so far. It won the Palme d’Or in Cannes.  Baker will clean up in the Critics Awards, which hit after festival season, so I can’t see him missing in the Best Director category. Though he doesn’t work with the same big canvas as Villeneuve, he has always been an experimental visionary, finding new ways to shoot people to make it seem like real life, up close and personal. It’s documentary fiction, but a great director always lets you know you’re watching the film through their eyes. This is most definitely true with Baker and Villeneuve.

Finally, out of Cannes, Jaques Audiard’s Emilia Perez is a musical with a unique look and vivid, lively directing. It seems like the critics will be all over this one, too; whether or not it makes it in for directing is a different story.

It will also be true with two very promising titles that will play in Venice,  Luca Guadagnino’s Queer and Todd Philips’ Joker Folie a Deux. Both directors have definitive styles, though they approach their stories differently.  Guadagnino is said to have made his best film with Queer, which is a fairly high bar to reach, and if that’s true, it should be a strong contender across the board. Both of these films are described as “very dark.” I’m not sure what exactly that means in either case, but I’m looking forward to watching how they tell these stories.

But so far, that’s four directors that might fill up the Best Director race:

Denis Villeneuve, Dune 2
Sean Baker, Anora
Luca Guadagnino, Queer
Todd Phillips, Joker Folie a Deux

That would leave one slot open. And honestly, it could turn out that way, though it is way too early to make that call. But if I had to guess on a fifth right now I’d go with Edward Berger for Conclave. Berger made All Quiet on the Western Front, which swept the BAFTAs and was a spectacular-looking masterpiece.

Just for fun, let’s look at what three Oscar pundits at Gold Derby are predicting for Best Director, Perri Nemiroff, Joyce Eng and Jazz Tangcay.

Interesting choices, no? The three they all have down are:

Steve McQueen, Blitz
Edward Berger, Conclave
Denis Villeneuve, Dune 2

Joyce Eng has a knack for picking that one director who seems like a long shot but gets in on the power of the international voters. Man, she had Rubin Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness in there way before anyone else. I thought, no way is that happening, and it totally did. She did the same thing with Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Drive My Car. So when she has Pedro Almodóvar, we can’t just write that off. I am also intrigued by both Jazz and Perri picking Sir. Ridley for Gladiator 2. The man never won an Oscar for directing, despite having won Best Picture with Gladiator.

The pundits are bullish on Steve McQueen’s Blitz. I’m still not sure about that one. I’ve heard some things. I won’t say what they are but it has made me hesitant to jump aboard the train, unlike this panel:

What’s that about? Is a publicist whispering in their ears? Do they know something the rest of us don’t? All I know is that Jordan Ruimy posted this on his site:

Based on what is known, Apple is still looking for a studio to distribute “Blitz” theatrically, and that could be one of the reasons for its notable lack of promotion. Last year, McQueen stated that he hoped for the film to premiere at Cannes 2024. That clearly didn’t happen. It was also barely mentioned in recent Screen and Variety predictions for Venice. What is going on here?

It’s not like I haven’t tried to get intel on this one either. It’s the one film I’ve been emailing around the most these last few weeks. I reached out to a bunch of journalists, intel gatherers, a few producers and nobody really knows what’s going on with this one. It also definitely test-screened late last year.

What does any of that mean? I have no idea. We’ll have to wait and see how it goes. The film will close the New York Film Festival. Apple Films, it’s been rumored, has lost interest in going big with theatrical, and who can blame them? There is a limit on what they can get from running the expensive Oscar gauntlet, especially if they go home empty-handed as they did last year with Killers of the Flower Moon. If the end goal is to bring in new subscribers, they’re probably thinking, why chase the rabbit?

Matt Neglia, like many of the pundits, is bullish on Sing Sing and its director, Greg Kwedar. Maybe! Who knows. Sing Sing does seem like a strong contender for Best Picture. And speaking of Sing Sing, that’s what our friend Ryan Casselman has down as his number one to win if he had to pick today.

Everything I’m writing today will likely be upended very soon, so take it all with a grain of salt.

We’ll make this short today since it’s been one hell of a week.

Predictions

Best Picture
Sing Sing
Gladiator II
Conclave
Joker Folie a Deux
Dune Part 2
Anora
Blitz
Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
Queer

Also wondering about Wicked, A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, The Piano Lesson, Eden, Here

Best Director
Edward Berger, Conclave
Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie a Deux
Sean Baker, Anora
Denis Villeneuve, Dune II
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Also wondering about Marielle Heller, Nightbitch, Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door, Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez, Ridley Scott, Gladiator II, Ron Howard, Eden, Bob Zemeckis, Here

Best Actress
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Mikey Madison, Anora

Also wondering about: Demi Moore, The Substance, Saoirse Ronan, Blitz, Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Best Actor
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie a Deu
Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Supporting Actress
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Aujanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys

Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys
Joker: Folie a Deux
The Piano Lesson

Original Screenplay
Anora
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Hard Truths
Emilia Perez
A Real Pain

That’s it for me. Have a nice weekend.