2025 Oscar Predictions: Must Be the Season of the Witch

By this time next week, the Telluride festival goers will have seen some movies, not every movie, but a few. Reviews and Tweets will be forthcoming as a consensus builds. What does that mean? Well, not much. Telluride used to be influential in the Oscar race. In recent years, it’s dimmed a bit. One of those reasons is that Toronto got tough and started strong-arming studios to release their movies there instead. Whether this is actually true or just a rumor, I do not know. We do know that things have shifted a bit.

What has always made Telluride a good barometer for the Oscars is that the demographic matches the Oscars — or it used to. The Oscars don’t look like they used to and so there is a slight disconnect perhaps. The new Academy voters tend to be more Cannes and Venice friendly than they are Telluride. But if you are looking for a general audience crowdpleaser, as opposed to a film that will light the film critics on fire, Telluride is still a strong bet.

The downside of launching films from Telluride is that sometimes critics can disembowel the film, knock it out of competition before it even sees an audience. The tastemakers say “this one is not good” and everyone follows suit. We’ve seen that already with some films now, films that really should be given a fair shot to reach audiences but since pundits have decided it isn’t a player, they ignore it. That can’t be fixed because there is no audience for Oscar movies now, or a shrinking one. There were big movies in the race last year, one even won Best Picture. Barbie was also a “big” movie. All is not lost.

I’ve been working off the theory for several years that late-breaking films can’t win Best Picture anymore. It’s surprising that it’s gone this way, but it has gone this way. There was a time when Oscar films did better when they were released at the end of the year. Now, the movie has to be seen right around now, or in Fall, to have time to build a consensus to win. In the case of a film like CODA, the publicity team hid the movie (even from me) and then unleashed it in the last minutes of the race, where it won over the actors. The same thing happened with Parasite. It was always kicking around but people weren’t watching it. Once they started watching it, it struck a chord and won.

Late-breakers don’t have time to build a consensus and can suffer from a backlash without time to recover. The other factor was the Academy pushing back its date by one month, from late March to late February. The Oscar pundits like it to be over with quickly because they don’t see the Oscars as the legs holding up the table of the film industry (they used to be, not anymore). They see it as a guessing game, a contest, that should not overstay its welcome. With so many awards being given out, by the time the Oscars roll around it feels like things are mostly fixed, but for a surprise here or there.

Here is how it’s gone:

2023-Oppenheimer – general release, Summer 2023
2022-Everything Everywhere – March, 2022 SXSW
2021-CODA – Sundance
2020-Nomadland – Venice
2019-Parasite – Cannes
2018-Green Book – Toronto
2017-The Shape of Water – Venice
2016-Moonlight – Telluride
2015-Spotlight – Venice
2014-Birdman – Venice
2013-12 Years a Slave – Telluride
2012-Argo – Telluride
2011-The Artist – Cannes
2010-The King’s Speech – Telluride
2009-The Hurt Locker – Toronto
2008-Slumdog Millionaire – Telluride
2007-No Country for Old Men – Cannes
2006-The Departed – September, 2006
2005-Crash – Toronto
2004-Million Dollar Baby — December, 2004
2003-ROTK – December, 2003
2002-December, 2002
2001-A Beautiful Mind, December 2001
2000-Gladiator, May 2000
1999-American Beauty, September, 1999
1998-Shakespeare in Love, December, 1998
1997-Titanic, December 1997
1996-The English Patient, November, 1996

As you can see, you have to go all the way back to The Departed to even find a Best Picture winner that was seen in general release, as opposed to a film festival. Oppenheimer broke the pattern in so many ways.

It was the first blockbuster since Gladiator and Return of the King to win. It was the first film to sweep the major categories – Picture, Director, Actor – since The King’s Speech in 2010.

Oppenheimer’s win felt like we were turning a page of sorts. The “rapture” voters were feeling when they made history with wins seemed to have, if ever so briefly, taken a backseat to HOLY SHIT WE HAVE TO SAVE OUR SINKING INDUSTRY. Oppenheimer was very much an “old school” Oscar winner, a sweeping epic about our history.

But there aren’t any Oppenheimers this year, unless Gladiator II or Joker Folie a Deux will be it. Wicked is a big musical and it could earn major nominations, but who knows.  What forces will shape the consensus are still to be determined. The election is one of the biggest. We’ll know the outcome in November. If it’s Harris, there might be a desire to “make history” or reflect changing demographics. If it’s Trump, it might go a totally different way.

There is also the chance the election will have no impact on the race. Who knows. The first thing that’s going to happen is that a highly anticipated film, Conclave, will play at Telluride. This is a tense and suspenseful story about replacing The Pope, directed by the very talented Edward Berger. Whether that will have the passion or the consensus to go all the way is a different question.

At the moment, we do not have a Frontrunner. So we don’t have a “scrappy underdog” to take it down. If pundits all had Gladiator II at the tops of their list, we could fool ourselves into thinking that was the frontrunner. But, given that it’s a sequel, that doesn’t seem to be happening.

But let’s take a look at Erik Anderson’s predictions for Picture and Director.

BEST PICTURE

1. Conclave (Focus Features) – 11/8
2. Anora (NEON) – 10/18
3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – 11/13
4. Dune Part II (Warner Bros) – 3/1
5. Blitz (Apple Original Films) – 11/22
6. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) – 12/25
7. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) – 10/25
8. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) – 12/20
9. Sing Sing (A24) – 7/12
10. Queer (TBA) – date TBA

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Edward Berger – Conclave (Focus Features)
2. Sean Baker – Anora (NEON)
3. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
4. Denis Villeneuve – Dune Part II (Warner Bros)
5. Steve McQueen – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
6. James Mangold – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures)
7. RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM)
8. Pedro Almodóvar – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)
9. Luca Guadagnino – Queer (TBA)
10. Mohammad Rasoulof – The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON)

I look at that list and my heart deflates. With the exception of Dune Part II, it all looks very film festival-y and not Big Hollywood in any way. It would be in keeping with recent trends at the Oscars.

Coach and First Class

Back in the day, when there was a thriving film industry as opposed to a struggling wasteland of infused dogma and failing box office, we had two Hollywoods. One was “coach” and the other was “first class.”

The “coach” side of things has mostly flatlined. There is no real market for movies at scale. Sure, your average male-driven superhero movie will still bring them out in droves, and Blake Lively should be getting good ink for bringing in a $100 million baby for what is essentially a Lifetime movie (no offense, it’s totally my jam). Other than that, Hollywood’s ongoing pathology to put women in male roles and give audiences what they think they SHOULD want instead of what they do want has wrecked the “coach” side of things.

The “first-class” side of things is holding steady. There aren’t many pressures on them, after all. Just make movies that people in First Class would be interested in watching. Those tend to cycle around identity — marginalized identity, mostly. The idea is that we’re still very much in the “collectivist” phase of our culture, with no end in sight. That pendulum will swing but it’s going to be a while.

There is always the chance that beefcake in chains and leather will bring us all together, uniting us in our desire to save Hollywood. Or that Trump willne will be so depressed they’ll win, and everyo go for something very dark, like Joker Folie a Deux. Otherwise, we’re looking at the Little Indie That Could for our Best Picture winner this year.

I’m looking forward to Telluring in just a few days, especially since most of the attendees will see me as an accused and condemend witch. There will be lots of avoiding eye contact and whispers as I stroll down the boulevard. Sounds fun! Super super fun.  I will take the hit for all of you and will bring you what I can from the tiny glittering town in the lap of the Rockies.

When we put out our predictions now we really are just testing the direction the wind is blowing based on nothing substantial. That will change, starting next week.

Here are my predictions for this week, for whatever they are worth:

Best Picture
Gladiator II
Conclave
Joker Folie a Deux
Dune Part 2
Anora
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys
Emilia Perez
Queer
Alts: Blitz, The End, The Room Next, Wicked, A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, The Piano Lesson, Eden, Here

Best Director
Edward Berger, Conclave
Luca Guadagnino, Queer
Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie a Deux
Sean Baker, Anora
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Alts – Denis Villeneuve, Dune II, Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing, Marielle Heller, Nightbitch, Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door, Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez, Ridley Scott, Gladiator II, Ron Howard, Eden, Bob Zemeckis, Here

Best Actress
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Alts: Mikey Madison, Anora, Demi Moore, The Substance, Saoirse Ronan, Blitz, Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Best Actor
Daniel Craig, Queer
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie a Deu
Alts Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown,  Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys

Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Aujanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys

Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Adapted Screenplay
The Piano Lesson
Conclave
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys
Joker: Folie a Deux

Original Screenplay
Anora
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Hard Truths
Emilia Perez
A Real Pain

And that is that. Onward.