Though not nearly as debated as the acting or best picture race, the screenplay categories are undoubtedly important above-the-line categories to be aware of for the entirety of the season. Not only have these two offered up “consolation prizes” for the writers/directors of films that might not win Best Picture, but as some people say, Screenplay is King, and whatever prevails here has a decent shot of going a long way in other important races.
Original Screenplay
Though it can be argued as the more “contentious” category with both Sean Baker’s Anora and Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist, the two films that pundits and awards watchers have been positioning as the “leading contenders” in the best picture race overall, there is still a clear frontrunner in the original screenplay category according to these same people, and it is Anora.
Sean Baker is known to be a brilliantl filmmaker when it comes to his direction. Still, his writing, consisting not only of engaging, poppy dialogue but thoroughly engaging multilayered characters, separates his filmography from others in the indie genre. Akin to recent winners in this category like Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite, and Emerald Fennel’s Promising Young Women, it’s not only a story that highlights societal issues (in comparison to the former, wealth, and comparison to the latter, gender norms), but manages to balance its several genres flawlessly.
If Anora is truly winning Best Picture, winning this writing award would be a prelude to it (in addition to potentially pulling off a win in directing) and if somehow it isn’t, Baker gets what would be called a “consolation prize” for his work on the film, and most likely, his career as a whole.
On top of Corbet’s The Brutalist (which, despite being more of a directorial showcase, has an intriguing and involving script), the other projects that are competing in this category include Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain, Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths, Steve McQueen’s Blitz, Tim Fehlbaum’s September 5, Mohammad Rasoulof’s The Seed of The Sacred Fig, Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine As Light, and Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night. A very strong field that will lead to a bit of suspense on Oscar morning regarding who will crack the top five.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Unlike Original Screenplay, the Best Adapted Screenplay race is less competitive when it comes to viable options, but is far more fluid and has the potential to produce many different results. However, despite the more ambiguous nature of Adapted Screenplay, there are a few films that people have agreed are ahead of others and it would be quite a shock if a snub were to happen.
The three adapted works people have highlighted as being potentially “solid” for the lineup are Edward Berger’s Conclave (adapted by Peter Straughn), RaMell Ross’s Nickel Boys (adapted by RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes), and Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing (adapted by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, and John Divine G Whitfield).
Each of these projects, the first being a thrilling, to-the-point screenplay about the Catholic Church, the second being an incredibly innovative and more “thematic” as opposed to “literal” adaptation, and the last being an emotionally compelling narrative about the program and stage play it is choosing to focus on, all have a distinct reason for prevailing in the category.
Other plausible contenders who are fighting for a nomination include Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune Part 2, Pedro Almodovar’s The Room Next Door, Richard Linklater’s Hit Man, and longshot possibilities such as Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson and Marielle Heller’s Nightbitch. Sight-unseen films include Robert Eggers’s Nosferatu and Robert Zemeckis’s Here.
Picking a frontrunner in this category feels like throwing a dart at a dartboard. There are pros and cons against every contender on the list, from not having the director write the screenplay (Conclave) to projects that have already had a large amount of scrutiny thrown their way due to the conversation on whether if its “original” or “adapted” (Emilia Perez and Sing Sing) to works that can be looked at more as directing showcases (Dune Part II and Nickel Boys).
If I had to choose today, Edward Berger’s Conclave seems like the ideal film to take this category, most likely as a “consolation prize” because it likely not be competitive in any other category. It’s a very writerly project based on a bestselling novel, and it will find its footing with industry voters. Tentatively, that *feels* right at the moment as we await its theatrical release.
Predictions
Original Screenplay
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Real Pain
- September 5
- Blitz
Alts: The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Hard Truths
Adapted Screenplay
- Conclave
- Sing Sing
- Nickel Boys
- Emilia Perez
- The Room Next Door
Alts: Dune Part II, Nightbitch
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