NextGen OscarWatcher: The Crafts

Continuing the below-the-line analysis, it seemed appropriate this week to focus on what I would call the technical side of the below-the-line crafts. Next week we’ll take a look at Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling, and the following week we’ll cover the music categories of Original Score and Original Song.

Best Film Editing

Best Film Editing is the most important, below-the-line category and equally the most frustrating. It straddles a line between attempting to recognize the actual best-edited project and whatever the academy considers their favorite film overall. This has led to bewildering omissions that foreshadow weakness down the road (Roma, 1917, etc.) and other nominees that represent nothing but overall strength for said film (Green Book, The Holdovers, etc). It’s a tough category to crack, though if one fills it with at least three very strong Best Picture contenders plus a technical juggernaut, chances are you’ll get a majority of the nominees correct.

Right off the bat, the two contenders that fit this bill are Dune Part 2 and Anora (edited by Sean Baker himself). A likely tech player in the former and the best picture frontrunner with a ton of flashy editing in the latter, it would be quite telling if either missed this category on nomination morning.

Then one must assume, as of now, The Brutalist would show up here. Though one can argue that its long runtime could alienate certain voters, its strength as a Best Picture nominee should solidify it here. The last two slots are a bit flimsy, but if I had to guess, the likability of the project with academy voters would push Emilia Perez into the top five, and lastly, due to it appealing to the “old guard” of the academy, Conclave will be a nominee as well. A solid top five that is bound for a shocking miss, but it’s hard to pinpoint which exactly it could be.
Other possible nominees include Wicked, Gladiator II, perhaps even The Substance.

Best Editing Predictions
1. Dune Part II
2. Anora
3. The Brutalist
4. Emilia Perez
5. Conclave
Alt: Wicked

Best Cinematography

Unlike Best Editing, the category of Best Cinematography is much more about the craft and the names that are behind the works that end up being in contention. This leads to both incredibly inspired picks that are out of the traditional wheelhouse (The Lighthouse, Never Look Away) and individuals who get nominated simply because they are legends in the field (Roger Deakins, Rodrigo Prieto, etc.) It’s a tough category to predict, and in some years, even the frontrunner is vulnerable (Top Gun Maverick).

Nevertheless, it does seem like there are at least two absolute locks in the category. Lol Crawley’s work in The Brutalist and Greg Fraser’s work in Dune Part II really stick out for entirely different reasons and will be the frontrunners until the very end. After that, throw a dart at a dart board. Edward Lachman is a known name in the industry, and Maria, despite having mixed reactions, has black and white/color cinematography. Then it becomes a battle of BP nom vs. merit of work on its own, and four films in particular, Nickel Boys (Jomo Fray), Conclave (Stephane Fontaine), Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke), and The Girl with the Needle (Michał Dymek) are in the fight. Gut instinct points to BP nominees getting in, but for the sake of being “out there,” I’ll stick with the latter two, at least for now. ASC will be telling (or perhaps it won’t be).

Best Cinematography Predictions
1. The Brutalist
2. Dune: Part II
3. Maria
4. Nosferatu
5. The Girl With The Needle
AlT: Nickel Boys, Conclave

Best Sound

Ever since combining the two sound categories, the awards race has done two things, one good and one bad. The former removed the inevitable “confusion” of what mixing and editing represent, and the latter has reduced the chances of some films being recognized with either a win or a nomination.

Nevertheless, Dune Part II seems poised to take the category, at least for now. There is always the chance for something more inspired to upset in the end (The Zone of Interest last year as an example), but for now, it’s firmly in front. Following that, one has to assume Gladiator II will at least get nominated here, while Blitz (being a war film) will also make the five if it doesn’t fade away completely. The last two slots, more likely than not, will go to music-centric projects, and the double whammy of Emilia Perez and Wicked seems likely to occur. Potential alternates include A Complete Unknown, The Substance, or even something unexpected like Furiosa if it has a solid night. Bafta, CAS, and a few other precursors (plus the shortlist) will be important.

Best Sound Predictions
1. Dune Part II
2. Gladiator II
3. Blitz
4. Emilia Perez
5. Wicked Part
Alt: A Complete Unknown, Furiosa

Best Visual Effects

Akin to Best Sound, this category feels more locked than ever (unless something unprecedented happens). Dune Part II is winning in a walk, and the rest is just the shouting. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes seems assured for a nomination, as does Gladiator II, plus Wicked, and as of now, Mufasa: The Lion King. Fairly straightforward category with a fairly straightforward winner. Only possible alternate would be Furiosa or Twisters, but neither really make a significant splash, but you never know. Shortlist is due next month.

Best Visual Effects Predictions
1. Dune Part II
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Wicked
4. Gladiator II
5. Mufasa: The Lion King
Alt: Furiosa

The next few weeks will be far more intense with precursors (NBR, AFI, Globes), and they will be covered in addition to the remaining below-the-line categories.

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