And Now, a Look at the Supporting Actress Category

There was a subtle but pronounced shift in the rules that govern the Best Supporting Actress race last year. Mo’Nique won playing a loathsome creature. She had the one strong scene where audiences sympathized with her but, let’s face it, she wasn’t a traditional winner by any means.

A few random facts about the Supporting Actress category, via wikipedia: Shelly Winters and Dianne Wiest hold the record for the most won, with two a piece. Thelma Ritter was nominated the most, with 6, and never won. When we talk about overdue actresses, despite the fact that many Oscar watchers don’t know who Thelma Ritter is, we must remember that no awarding her at least one of those six nods was and is an embarrassment.

Thelma Ritter never won because she was never the “girl of the moment” and probably because she never stepped very far outside of her comfort zone: she was always good, and always stole the show. But winning is something entirely different. They have to love you in that moment, even if it means not remembering your name five years later.

Looking back over the winners for Best Supporting Actress, there are a lot of likable characters over the years, with a villain or two thrown in here or there. There are many actresses who were just the thing of the moment and, looking back, one wonders how in the world they ever won. I’m thinking specifically of Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener, Jennifer Connelly for A Beautiful Mind, Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton – the list goes on. They were either girls of the moment, or they were overdue for a win, or they were in a film that the Academy really liked, or they beat someone who had recently won (like Cate Blanchett, who should have won for I’m Not There).

In truth, the supporting category, I dare say, has been filled with mediocre performances for decades now, with a few great choices here or there.

This year, there are already several actresses deserving of a slot. With True Grit and The Fighter yet to be seen at all, and The Way Back, Rabbit Hole, Black Swan, The King’s Speech yet to open to the public, our list of potential supporting actresses must come from those who have seen these movies at screenings and festivals.

Marion Cotillard started out the year as a strong supporting actress contender for Inception. Michelle Williams seemed to be headed in that direction for Shutter Island as well. Two crazy wives married to Leonardo DiCaprio. Of these, I believe Cotillard has the better chance for a couple of reasons. The first, she’s a girl of the moment still. And the second, she might be Inception’s only acting nomination. One of the biggest reasons, of course, is the opportunity to see Ms. Cotillard all glammed up for the big show.

Michelle Williams could turn up if Shutter Island is well liked enough – I doubt it.

But a lot has happened since Inception and Shutter Island. There is a grass roots effort to get Jacki Weaver some notice. Weaver is truly brilliant and sinister in Animal Kingdom – it’s a strange and disarming performance. She might get in if enough people pay attention to her, and perhaps watch the film, but she has two strikes against her at the outset. 1) She isn’t as well known here as she is in Australia, and 2) Animal Kingdom isn’t exactly setting the world of bloggers and critics afire. It is a very good film, I thought, and I was chilled to the bone by Weaver’s performance. It would be a shame if she was forgotten by year’s end.

The real surprise for me so far this year was Sissy Spacek in Get Low. The film itself was a surprise, as I didn’t think it would be as good as it was, just going by the buzz and reviews. Spacek is quietly doing some of the best work of her long and vital career now, with Big Love and now Get Low. Here’s to hoping she isn’t forgotten. But one never knows what the Academy will think of things.

The other standout for me was Ruth Sheen in Mike Leigh’s Another Year. There is some talk that Lesley Manville will be put in supporting, and if she is, she could likely win. That is, unless Sheen is nominated along side her. Then the two may split the vote for Another Year. Sheen is so likable in the film. She’s the heart and soul of it, the still center. She isn’t well known either and would need some aggressive publicity, but there is no question she is deserving.

Helena Bonham Carter seems like a shoo-in for The King’s Speech, even though she doesn’t have to do much but be sweet and supporting to Colin Firth. But she is likable, and she plays the Queen Mother, who is apparently the most beloved royal. That could mean votes, unless we’re talking about British voters who hate the monarchy. Carter does a much more strained and posh accent, which almost borders on the ridiculous. But she pulls it back enough to make it believable. If the AMPAS really loves The King’s Speech, it will be nominated in three acting categories. I don’t see how they miss Bonham-Carter.

Miranda Richardson delivers a powerhouse performance in Made in Dagenham. Along with Sally Hawkins for lead, Richardson seems poised for a nod for this. Dagenham is right in the Academy’s wheelhouse — even though I hate saying things like that because it presumes too much. It’s one of the few feelgood stories of the year, along with the King’s Speech and 127 Hours. It isn’t so much a critics’ movie, but I suspect it will be a movie the adult patrons will pay to see. Richardson might end up being the film’s only nomination, but it’s hard to imagine her not getting in at this point.

Although there has been much hoopla and hot air around The Social Network’s portrayal of women — it is a narrow-minded way of looking at the film, one that really misses the whole point of writing flawed characters — a really great character from the film is Rooney Mara who only has two scenes. But she nails them both, and has some of the film’s best lines. A nomination for her is all but an impossibility at this point. But it’s nice to imagine that it could be just about the performance, and not the amount of screen time.

And speaking of the nominations being about something other than the performance, it would be something spectacular if the Academy recognized Cecile de France in Hereafter. The only way she would get in is if the film had gotten more raves than it did. With New York, Los Angeles, TIME, and Ebert behind it, it still feels like the bad reviews outweigh the good. It isn’t only about reviews, of course, but for de France to crack this category, she would need the critics’ support. There is no question that she gives one of the best performances in the supporting category. And how cool was it for Eastwood and co. to cast a complete unknown in the role? She is a standout in the film.

And two performances from unseen films are being predicted — that’s Hailee Steinfeld from True Grit and Melissa Leo from The Fighter. Yes, if all goes well, they should be in. But there are a lot of things that can go wrong, as we know from our own history. There is no basis to judge this from except the small bits from the trailer, so it is a huge gamble to predict them. Leo is always good, though, and Steinfeld has a great part.

Finally, the two from Toronto that seemed to be getting the most attention was Barbara Hershey for Black Swan and Dianne Wiest for Rabbit Hole. These are two well known and well loved actresses. I haven’t seen either performance, but it seems likely they would get attention based on the buzz so far, and their status in Hollywood. Wiest is, in particular, an Academy favorite.

In the end, possibility #1:

Sissy Spacek, Get Low
Marion Cotillard, Inception
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham
Ruth Sheen, Another Year

It could also go:

Sissy Spacek, Get Low
Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham
Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole
Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter

OR – a sight unseen, logical prediction could be:

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Sissy Spacek, Get Low

It’s worth noting, that just as with Best Supporting Actor, this category doesn’t often pull its nominees from Best Picture contenders. Last year, Mo’Nique and Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick all came from Best Pic contenders. But the year before, it was only Taraji P. Henson from Benjamin Button. And before that it was Tilda Swinton from Michael Clayton.

One more thing to note. You have to go all the way back to 2002, with Chicago, to find a Supporting Actress winner from a Best Picture winner.

This is going to be a wide open category, I suspect, but by December we should have a better idea where it’s going.