A Little Stat-o-Rama to go with your Morning Coffee

With the Oscar race now almost entirely put to bed, we await two competing stats working against each other to determine the outcome of this year’s race for Oscar:

Since 1975 (when the LA Film Critics formed), three films have won the NBR, the Los Angeles and New York Film Critics and the Golden Globe. Two of them will have won Best Picture unless the Social Network makes Oscar history to win on February 27:
1. Schindler’s List
2. Terms of Endearment
3. The Social Network

David Fincher, who recently lost the DGA to Tom Hooper in one of the biggest upsets I’ve seen in the 11 years I’ve been doing this, also won director from those four groups, something neither Jim Brooks nor Steven Spielberg managed to.

To take the critics stat further, before the LA Film critics started, from 1974 to the beginning of the Golden Globes, 1943, no film ever won the NBR/NYFCC/Globe and then failed to win Oscar’s Best Picture. And those were:

A Man for All Seasons
Tom Jones
Bridge on the River Kwai
Around the World in 80 Days
On the Waterfront

If The Social Network loses, it will be the only time since 1943 those groups agreed on a film that then lost Best Picture. If I have made a mistake in my stats, let me know.

Meanwhile, from 1992 to 1995 (when the PGA formed) no film ever won the PGA, DGA and lost the Oscar for Best Picture. And since 1995 to present (when the SAG ensemble formed) only one film won PGA, DGA and SAG and lost Best Picture/Director: Apollo 13, which then lost to Braveheart at the Oscars. Even Braveheart, though, had won the Globe and the Critics Choice for Best Director by this point in the race. I am pointing this out to you, Oscar watchers, so you can really understand the uniqueness of this year’s divergence between critics and industry.

It would seem, stats-wise, that the Social Network has it over the King’s Speech despite the wins. But the guilds are closer to the Academy voters than the critics or foreign press. Either film that wins, Oscar history will have been made, meaning, something that’s (almost) never happened before will happen. ¬†A woman won last year, though, for directing and that hadn’t happened in 82 years…so anything is possible. ¬†When in doubt, go with the guilds.