5-card Oscar Poker

There’s already talk in the comments about which critically acclaimed movie of 2008 will fail to catch fire in the nominations process. One thing‚Äôs certain every year: Some movie that we‚Äôre all wild about in November gets the shaft come January. Last year, for some of us it was The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. For others it was Into the Wild or I‚Äôm Not There. The excitement we feel the morning the nominees are announced is always blunted by the sting of disappointment when a personal favorite doesn‚Äôt make the final cut.

It’s especially painful when we know some movies will be inevitably left off that are better than Chocolat or The Cider House Rules. But this isn’t 2001. Our favorite movies have the bad luck of competing in a year overflowing with relative greatness. We only get to hold 5 cards in our hands in Oscar poker, even if the deck is stacked with 7 or 8 aces. You’ve got to know when to hold ’em, but you also have to know which to reluctantly discard.

That‚Äôs what makes a year of apparent abundance thrilling and a little scary too. I already have more than 5 movies in mind that I‚Äôd be happy to see get Best Picture nominations. And I know there won‚Äôt be room in the lifeboat for a couple of them. Like the Sesame Street song, “one of these things is not like the other thing,” it often comes down to which highly praised film just doesn’t seem to be “red carpet” enough to sit in the front rows with the chosen few. Last year, among others, that outcast was Once. I have my own idea about which movies this year will be left standing when the game of musical chairs ends, but it’s not right for me to say on the main page. It’s a cruel task, but let’s hear your predictions for this year’s odd man out.