The HFPA are announcing their nominees tomorrow. With all of the dates being pushed back this year, the Globes aren’t as early as they usually are so they might actually be more useful than they’ve been in the recent past. Although the HFPA takes a lot of crap for being bought and paid for by studios, and/or foreign journalists nobody can identify, the truth is that it doesn’t really matter in the end; their nominees and winners do matter. They have as much an impact on the race as any other major critics awards, and are the second most watched awards show after the Oscars. Winning a Globe gives you the world stage, and it ups your chances to win an Oscar significantly. Except when it doesn’t.
I’ll contend that after James Cameron won the Globe for Avatar it was an uncomfortable moment that eventually led to Kathryn Bigelow and The Hurt Locker’s victory. Sometimes wins can feel “wrong” as much as they can feel “right.” It just depends on how much gratitude the contender decides to show. It’s always a good thing, for instance, to turn on the waterworks. People who bestow awards like to feel like they’re doing a good deed. So the wrong reaction is entitlement. The right reaction is gratitude. Hey, you asked. Well, maybe you didn’t ask but I’m offering up this theory which probably has one foot in a big pile of bullshit and the other foot in the truth. I won’t tell you which is which.
I have posted my predictions over at Gold Derby but I will go over them now. Try to hide your excitement.
The question is what movie do well here. Many are assuming that movie with be Les Miserables. The Globes have traditionally embraced musicals and musicals with that much emotion appears to be up their street. We shall see tomorrow.
Best Picture, Drama
Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
alts. Atonement, The Impossible
Best Picture, Musical/Comedy
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
This is 40
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alt. Hyde park on Hudson
Best Actor, Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
Alt: Ben Affleck, Argo
Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Cruise, Rock of Ages
Jack Black, Bernie
Tommy Lee Jones, Hope Springs
Best Actress, Drama
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Alt: Rachel Weisz, Deep Blue Sea
Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Barbra Streisand, The Guild Trip
Bette Midler, Parental Guidance
Leslie Mann, This is 40
Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Director
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ben Affleck, Argo
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
The rest you can check out over at Gold Derby. This is the last ugly morning until the Oscar nominations are announced.
Actor SAG | 2011 GLOBES | OSCAR |
Jean DuJardin, The Artist | Jean DuJardin, The Artist | Jean DuJardin, The Artist |
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar | Fassbender, Shame | Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy |
Demian Bichir, A Better Life | Demian Bichir, A Better Life | Demian Bichir, A Better Life |
George Clooney, The Descendants | George Clooney, The Descendants | George Clooney, The Descendants |
Brad Pitt, Moneyball | Brad Pitt, Moneyball | Brad Pitt, Moneyball |
Actress | 2011 | 2011 |
Viola Davis, The Help | Viola Davis, The Help | Viola Davis, The Help |
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady | Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady | Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady |
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin | Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin | Rooney Mara, Dragon Tattoo |
Rooney Mara, Dragon Tattoo | ||
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs | Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs | Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs |
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn | Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn | Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn |
Supporting Actor | 2011 | 2011 |
Christopher Plummer, Beginners | Christopher Plummer, Beginners | Christopher Plummer, Beginners |
Nick Nolte, Warrior | Albert Brooks, Drive | Nick Nolte, Warrior |
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn | Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn | Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn |
Jonah Hill, Moneyball | Jonah Hill, Moneyball | Jonah Hill, Moneyball |
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar | Viggo Mortensen, Dangerous Method | Max Von Sydow, Loud and Close |
Supporting Actress | 2011 | 2011 |
Octavia Spencer, The Help | Octavia Spencer, The Help | Octavia Spencer, The Help |
Jessica Chastain, The Help | Jessica Chastain, The Help | Jessica Chastain, The Help |
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist | Bérénice Bejo, The Artist | Bérénice Bejo, The Artist |
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs | Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs | Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs |
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids | Shailene Woodley, Descendants | Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids |
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | GLOBES | OSCAR |
The Help | The Help | The Help |
The Artist | The Artist | The Artist |
Bridesmaids | Bridesmaids | |
Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris |
The Descendants | The Descendants | The Descendants |
Hugo | Hugo | |
Moneyball | Moneyball | |
War Horse | War Horse | |
The Ides of March | ||
Actor | GLOBES | OSCAR |
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech | Colin Firth, The King’s Speech | Colin Firth, The King’s Speech |
Jeff Bridges, True Grit | Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter | Jeff Bridges, True Grit |
Robert Duvall, Get Low | Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine | Javier Bardem, Biutiful |
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network | Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network | Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network |
James Franco, 127 Hours | James Franco, 127 Hours | James Franco, 127 Hours |
Actress | GLOBES | OSCAR |
Natalie Portman, Black Swan | Natalie Portman, Black Swan | Natalie Portman, Black Swan |
Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright | Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright | Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright |
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole | Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole | Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole |
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone | Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone | Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone |
Hillary Swank, Conviction | Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine | Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine |
Supporting Actor | GLOBES | OSCAR |
Christian Bale, The Fighter | Christian Bale, The Fighter | Christian Bale, The Fighter |
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone | Michael Douglas, Wall St 2 | John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone |
Mark Ruffalo,Kids Are All Right | Andrew Garfield TSN | Mark Ruffalo,Kids Are All Right |
Jeremy Renner, The Town | Jeremy Renner, The Town | Jeremy Renner, The Town |
Geoffrey Rush, TKS | Geoffrey Rush, TKS | Geoffrey Rush, TKS |
Supporting Actress | ||
Melissa Leo, The Fighter | Melissa Leo, The Fighter | Melissa Leo, The Fighter |
Amy Adams, The Fighter | Amy Adams, The Fighter | Amy Adams, The Fighter |
Helena Bonham Carter, TKS | Helena Bonham Carter, TKS | Helena Bonham Carter, TKS |
Mila Kunis, Black Swan | Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom | Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom |
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit | Mila Kunis, Black Swan | Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit |
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | Globes | Oscar |
The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech |
The Fighter | The Fighter | The Fighter |
Black Swan | Black Swan | Black Swan |
The Kids Are Alright | The Kids Are Alright | The Kids Are Alright |
The Social Network | The Social Network | The Social Network |
Inception | Inception |