Gurus Check-in, Confidently Predict Split – a look at history

I think it’s kind of funny that every year we go through the whole Best Picture, Best Director is going to split thing. Remember when it was going to be Kathryn Bigelow for Director and Avatar for Best Picture? The thing about splits to know is that they happen so rarely and when they do it is almost impossible to see them coming. No one could have predicted Saving Private Ryan to win Director but not Picture, for instance. Crash? Chariots of Fire? These were all unpredictable splits. How about Steven Soderbergh beating Ridley Scott and Ang Lee in 2000? Someone might have been able to spit in the wind, have a hunch and then claim victory by having that made that call – but really, that would have been a blind guess. You would not have seen a consensus form like you’re seeing now at Gurus of Gold:

A similar dynamic is playing out at Gold Derby.

The ballots are counted for Best Picture as preferential ballots – a process I feel like I have to relearn every year. But that process usually means a generally favored films will win over a deeply passionate choice that is, in any way, divisive. Best Director is counted as a weighted ballot, like the rest of the categories at the Oscars. Passion can sometimes win out there. Remember, we have more than five nominees for Best Picture. You really can’t factor in split years when there were five Best Picture contenders and weighted ballots. You have to factor in both things – passion (Best Director) and generally favored all around (Best Picture).

It seems like we go through this every year lately and yet the pundits continue to be confident that not only will a split occur but one that could be seen from a mile away. Either that, or they think Best Picture will be one or the other and they’re hedging their bets. I believe that they will not split Best Picture and Best Director but that if one wins one, it will handily win the other. In other words, if there is enough passionate support for Alfonso Cuaron in Best Director, Gravity is destined to win Best Picture. Why would 12 Years a Slave win Picture but not director?

The Producers Guild will likely be the decider, just as it has been since 2009, when Oscar changed up to the preferential ballot. The PGA’s preferential ballot chose The Hurt Locker, so did the DGA, so did Oscar. The PGA’s preferential ballot chose The King’s Speech, so did DGA, so did Oscar. The PGA’s preferential ballot chose The Artist, so did DGA and Oscar – same went for Argo, even without a Ben Affleck nomination. Why would 2013 be any different?

If the PGA goes for Gravity and the DGA goes for McQueen, that could indicate that a split might be underfoot – or the opposite could happen – the PGA goes for 12 Years a Slave and the DGA goes for Cuaron you might see the kind of split playing out that the gurus are predicting. MORE LIKELY HOWEVER is that if one film is strong enough to beat the other with the producers, it will be strong enough to beat the other with the directors.

The only way to look at Oscar history is to pick the years where there were more than five Best Picture nominees against five director nominees:

1943

• SONG OF BERNADETTE – 12 nominations – wins 4: Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography and Score, nominated for editing
• FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS – 9 nominations, including editing, but no director, no screenplay, 1 win for supporting.
• CASABLANCA-8 nominations. 3 wins for Picture, Director, Screenplay, 2 acting nominations, editing
• MADAME CURIE – 7 nominations, including acting, but no director, writer or editing.
• THE MORE THE MERRIER – 6 nominations, including writing, acting and directing, won Supporting Actor, no editing.
• THE HUMAN COMEDY – 5 nominations, 1 win (for writing, William Saroyan), including director, no editing
• HEAVEN CAN WAIT – 3 nominations, including director, no editing, no screenplay
• WATCH ON THE RHINE – 4 nominations, including writing (Dashiell Hammett) and acting, 1 win, acting. NY Film critics pick for Best Pic.
• IN WHICH WE SERVE – 2 nominations (one honorary win for Noel Coward), screenplay nom, no editing.
• THE OX BOW INCIDENT – 1 nomination

1942

• MRS. MINIVER – nominated for 12 Oscars – 6 wins for Picture, Director (Wyler), Screenplay, Actress & Supporting Actress, & Cinematography
• THE PRIDE OF THE YANKEES – 11 nominations – 1 solitary Oscar win for Best Editing
  
• YANKEE DOODLE DANDY – 8 nominations, including Director (Curtiz) – 3 wins, including Best Actor (Cagney)
• RANDOM HARVEST – 7 Oscar nominations, including Best Director – 0 wins
  
• THE TALK OF THE TOWN – 7 nominations, 0 wins
  
• THE MAGNIFICENT AMBERSONS – 4 nominations, including Cinematography & Supporting Actress (Agnes Morehead)
• WAKE ISLAND – 4 nominations, including Director
• THE PIED PIPER – nominated for 3 Oscars, including Best Actor
• THE 49th PARALLEL – 3 nominations – won Best Writing, Original Story (but lost Best Writing, Screenplay).
• KINGS ROW – 3 nominations, including Best Director

1941 (a.k.a. “the year that will live in infamy”)

• SERGEANT YORK – 11 nominations – 2 wins, Editing & Actor (Cooper)
• HOW GREEN WAS MY VALLEY – 10 nominations – 5 wins, for Best Picture, Director (Ford), Cinematography, Art Direction, Best Supp Actor (Crisp)
• CITIZEN KANE – 10 nominations – 1 win for Screenplay (Welles & Mankiewicz) – NY Film critics pick for Best Picture
• THE LITTLE FOXES – 9 nominations – 0 wins
• HERE COMES MR. JORDAN – 7 nominations – 2 wins, for Best Story, Best Screenplay
• HOLD BACK THE DAWN – 6 nominations
• BLOSSOMS IN THE DUST – 4 nominations – 1 win
• THE MALTESE FALCON – 3 nominations
• ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN – and living up to its title: 1 nomination
• SUSPICION– 3 nominations – 1 win, Actress (Joan Fontaine)

1940 -SPLIT

• REBECCA – 11 nominations, including Hitchcock’s 1st Oscar nom, Editing & Screenplay – only 2 wins, for Best Picture and Cinematography
• THE GRAPES OF WRATH – 7 nominations, including Screenplay & Editing – 2 wins, including Best Director (Ford)
• THE LETTER – 7 nominations – 0 wins
• FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT – 6 nominations -0 wins
• THE LONG VOYAGE HOME – 6 nominations – 0 wins
• OUR TOWN – 6 nominations – 0 wins
• THE PHILADELPHIA STORY – 6 nominations – 2 wins, including Screenplay
• THE GREAT DICTATOR – 5 nominations – 0 wins
• KITTY FOYLE – 5 nominatins – 1 win, Actress (Ginger Rogers)
• ALL THIS, AND HEAVEN TOO – 3 nominations – 0 wins

* (Best Editing in 1940 went to North West Mounted Police — so AMPAS was all over the map)

1939

• GONE WITH THE WIND – 13 nominations – 8 wins, for Best Director, Screenplay, Editing, Actress, Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography
• MR. SMITH GOES TO WASHINGTON – 11 noms – 1 win, Original Story
• WUTHERING HEIGHTS – 8 noms – 1 win, for b&w Cinematography (Toland)
• GOODBYE, MR. CHIPS – 7 noms – 1 win, Best Actor (Donat)
• STAGECOACH – 7 noms – 2 wins, incl. Supporting Actor
• THE WIZARD OF OZ – 6 noms – for Score & Song
• LOVE AFFAIR – 6 noms – 0 wins
• NINOTCHKA – 4 noms – 0 wins
• OF MICE AND MEN – 4 noms – 0 wins
• DARK VICTORY – 3 noms – 0 wins

1938

• YOU CAN’T TAKE IT WITH YOU – 7 nominations – 2 wins, including Best Director (Capra)
• ALEXANDER’S RAGTIME BAND – 6 noms – 1 win
• BOYS TOWN – 5 noms – 2 wins, Best Supp Actor & Screenplay
• JEZEBEL – 5 noms – 2 wins, incl. Best Actress (Davis)
• FOUR DAUGHTERS – 5 noms – 0 wins
• PYGMALION 4 noms – 1 win, Screenplay
• THE ADVENTURES OF ROBIN HOOD – 4 nominations – 3 wins, incl. Best Editing
• THE CITADEL – 4 noms
• TEST PILOT – 3 noms – 0 wins
• GRAND ILLUSION – 1 nomination

1937 — SPLIT

• THE LIFE OF EMILE ZOLA – 10 nominations, including Director & Actor – 3 wins, including Best Screenplay
  
• LOST HORIZON – 7 noms – 2 wins, incl. Best Editing
• A STAR IS BORN – 8 noms – 2 wins
• IN OLD CHICAGO – 6 noms – 2 wins
• THE GOOD EARTH – 5 noms – 2 wins, Actress (Rainer) & Cinematography (Freund)
• ONE HUNDRED MEN AND A GIRL – 5 noms – 1 win
• THE AWFUL TRUTH – 5 nominations, incl Screenplay & Editing – 1 win, Best Director (McCarey)
• CAPTAINS COURAGEOUS – 4 noms – 1 win, Actor (Tracy)
• DEAD END – 4 noms – 0 wins
• STAGE DOOR – 4 noms

1936 – SPLIT

• THE GREAT ZIEGFELD – 7 nominations – 3 wins, incl. “Best Dance Direction” (hmm)
  ANTHONY ADVERSE – 7 noms – 4 wins, incl. Best Editing
• DODSWORTH – 7 noms – 1 win
• SAN FRANCISCO – 6 noms – 1 win
• MR. DEEDS GOES TO TOWN – 5 noms, incl. Screenplay – 1 win, Best Director (Capra)
• ROMEO AND JULIET – 4 noms – 0 wins
• THE STORY OF LOUIS PASTEUR – 4 noms – 3 wins, incl. Best Story & Best Screenplay
• THREE SMART GIRLS – 3 noms – 0 wins
• A TALE OF TWO CITIES – 2 wins – 0 wins
• LIBELED LADY – 1 nom – 0 wins

1935 – SPLIT

• MUTINY ON THE BOUNTY – 8 nominations, – 1 win, Best Picture
  
• NAUGHTY MARIETTA – 8 noms – 2 wins
• THE LIVES OF A BENGAL LANCER – 8 noms – 2 wins
• THE INFORMER – 6 noms, incl Editing – 4 wins, including Director (Ford) & Screenplay
• CAPTAIN BLOOD – 5 noms – 0 wins
• LES MIS√âRABLES – 4 noms – 0 wins
• A MIDSUMMER NIGHT’S DREAM – 4 noms – 2 wins, incl. Editing
• TOP HAT – 4 noms – 0 wins
• BROADWAY MELODY OF 1936 – 3 noms – 1 win
• DAVID COPPERFIELD – 3 noms – 0 wins
• ALICE ADAMS – 2 noms – 0 wins
• RUGGLES OF RED GAP – 1 nom – o wins

1934

• ONE NIGHT OF LOVE – 6 noms – 2 wins
• IT HAPPENED ONE NIGHT – nominated for 5 Oscars – won all 5, incl Director (Capra)
• CLEOPATRA – 5 noms – 1 win, Cinematography
• THE GAY DIVORC√âE – 5 noms – 1 win
• THE THIN MAN – 4 noms – 0 wins
• VIVA VILLA! – 4 noms – 1 win
• IMITATION OF LIFE – 3 noms – 0 wins
• FLIRTATION WALK – 2 noms – 0 wins
• THE WHITE PARADE – 2 noms – 0 wins
• THE BARRETTS OF WIMPOLE STREET – 2 noms – 0 wins
• HERE COMES THE NAVY – 1 nom – 0 wins
• THE HOUSE OF ROTHSCHILD – 1 nom

*(the 1934 Oscar for Best Editing went to Eskimo)

1932-33

• CAVALCADE – 4 nominations – 3 wins, incl. Best Director
  
• A FAREWELL TO ARMS – 2 noms – 0 wins
• 42ND STREET – 4 noms – 0 wins
• I AM A FUGITIVE FROM A CHAIN GANG – 3 noms – 0 wins
• LADY FOR A DAY – 4 noms – 0 wins
• LITTLE WOMEN – 3 noms – 1 win
• THE PRIVATE LIFE OF HENRY VIII – 2 noms – 1 win, Actor (Laughton)
• SHE DONE HIM WRONG – 1 nom – 0 wins
• SMILIN’ THROUGH – 1 nom – 0 wins
• STATE FAIR – 1 nom – 0 wins

Generally speaking, a split seems to occur when voters feel obligated to reward a film they really didn’t like that much, or not as much – and they give their “love” vote to what people consider a lesser, but more likable movie overall.  12 Years a Slave would probably be the film voters felt obliged to vote for where Gravity would be the film that is more likable overall, wouldn’t you say?  So those predicting a split vote – almost all of the Gurus of Gold and Gold Derby people – seem to have it pegged in a backwards fashion. The bottom line is this: if voters in the DGA love Cuaron’s film enough to give him Best Director, with 14,500 voters choosing him over Steve McQueen or David O. Russell (should they be nominated), you can bet Gravity will have more than enough momentum to go ahead and then win Best Picture.

My best guess on a split vote, however, would easily give McQueen the edge in director and Gravity in Best Picture. But from what I know of the way these votes have gone down lately there won’t be a split.  And if there is one it will be something you don’t see yet – like what Pete Hammond is predicting, American Hustle to win Best Picture as the popular vote and either McQueen or Cuaron will win Best Director.